Deep dive · NasdaqGS: ALRM
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Event and Positioning are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at +4 over 30d, a leaning reading on a dispersion of 0.14, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings, quality / value, analyst moves vote up. 4 of 5 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
insider flow, sentiment vote down. 1 of 5 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Event against Positioning.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are long gamma, so their hedging absorbs moves rather than amplifying them; and the binding position cap is 3.2% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean+3.01%
Frankfurt3RL+3.33%⏱London0HC2+5.70%⏱Zurich3RL0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 3 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Wall Street rating
Sell
+18% to the average target
50% buy · 33% hold · 17% sell
median target $63
median target $63
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $55.19 · -3.3%
200-day $49.24 · +8.4%
200-day $49.24 · +8.4%
Earnings
In 40 days
5 Nov 2026 · options imply ±8.8%
beat 7–8 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 79% · n=35,343
cohort P(beat) 79% · n=35,343
Valuation
17.4× forward
19th of its own five-year range
5yr median 40×
FCF yield 5.18%
FCF yield 5.18%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
3 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 0.50 · vol 18% ann.
worst drawdown -21%
worst drawdown -21%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NasdaqGS · USDApplication Software
$53.38-0.06 · -0.11%CLOSED · vol 337.4K
52-week range↑ 29% off low · ↓ 8.2% off high
$41.49now $53.38$58.15
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jul 8, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 2.6 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
2.60GREY ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 8, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
6.5σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.12%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreCLEAR
F 7/9
Piotroski F-score 7 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.92×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital1.26
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$105.06M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
63rd pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Buyback yieldGROSS
1.73%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
3.3%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
SBC / operating cash flowFALLING
35%
How much of the cash the business generates is being handed to employees as stock. The higher it runs, the more of a buyback is just offsetting it.
Diluted vs basic share gapOVERHANG
18.33%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
70 / 100
0 critical · 3 watch · 2 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 2.60Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationWATCHM -2.16M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.55long-term debt 0.55× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCLEARF 7/9Piotroski F-score 7 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 3 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026GOOD · 61/100
Business quality
13% net margin, 16% return on equity, +8% revenue growth, and capital earning 14% against a 6% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
61 / 100GOOD
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
13.1%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
66.1%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
13.2%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
15.6%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
7.6pp
Earns 14% on invested capital that costs about 6%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
11.9%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-7.3%
3 months+15.3%
6 months+25.6%
Year to date+4.2%
1 year+4.1%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+7.6%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
+7.4%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+9.1%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 17%
83 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 6, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
79%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 7–8 OF THE LAST 8
8 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
40%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missData unavailableNo misses in the measured window, so there is no denominator to compute this over. Shown as absent rather than as 0%.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±3.8%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Sells the newsON THE PRINT
No
No habit of selling off on a good report in the measured window.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 26, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,479,705
21d49%0.0%695,010
63d51%+0.1%220,093
slope -0.04 over 40 bars
Dragonfly doji · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d36%0.0%507,560
21d40%0.0%237,486
63d44%0.0%73,638
long lower shadow, open=close near high
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%975,500
21d52%+0.2%458,215
63d54%+0.5%144,909
three peaks ≈ equal
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%646,584
21d51%+0.1%303,544
63d53%+0.5%96,103
flat resistance, rising support
0319TH OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $53.38, 17.4× forward earnings, RSI 38, and dealers long gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed1 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $55.19 · 200-day $49.24. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Down 0.11% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
38
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±2.5%
$1.35
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.32
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position18% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$55.02
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$54.03
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
5 Nov 2026 · in 40 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 9 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
50 / 50cohort n=13,098
Effectively a coin flip. A split this close is not an edge you can size on, whichever side is nominally ahead. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line0.98× segment rate · n=742
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 78% of cases (n=742).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.3σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$52 – $531 support
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $53.06.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
70 / 100Falling knife
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds are a coin flip.
Historically, names tripping 1 validated red flag finished lower 12 months later in 50% of cases (n=13,098) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-0.99pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-1.96
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months17.4×5yr median 40×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported23.6×19th of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth1.00
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit2.6×5yr median 3.2×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets3.1×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay11.8×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off20.1×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value5.18%
0 of the 8 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of S1
$53.11In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetRound + sma 50 + vwap 50
$55.15$55–$55
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$50.42risk $2.70/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.76:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+3.4%
short-term trend line · $55.19
To the 200-day
-7.7%
primary trend line · $49.24
To the put wall
-15.7%
heaviest put open interest · $45.00
To the call wall
-6.3%
heaviest call open interest · $50.00
To the composer's target
+3.3%
Round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $55.15
To the composer's stop
-5.6%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $50.42
To the 52-week high
+8.9%
highest print of the past year · $58.15
To the 52-week low
-22.3%
lowest print of the past year · $41.49
Options-implied week ±8.8%
$48.69 – $58.07
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$52.03 – $54.73
±$1.35 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $53.11 · stop $50.42 · target $55.15, a 0.76:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 26, 2026
Signal
Long gamma — moves get absorbed.
Dealers hedge against the move, which damps volatility around the current strikes. It makes the tape quieter without saying anything about which way it goes.
Options tapeLast snapshot before the 2026-09-18 expiry · Chain · Sep 26, 2026
Max pain-12.0%
$47.50
The strike where most open options would have expired worthless on the last snapshot. That expiry has passed; the next chain read replaces it.
Put / call ratio (OI)PUT-HEAVY
9.56
9% calls
91% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
1.90
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $4.75
±8.8%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$45.00PUT509
$50.00CALL18
$57.50CALL17
$55.00CALL5
$60.00CALL4
$52.50CALL4
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-09-18 (expired)CallsPutsMax pain $47.50
1
$65.00
04
$60.00
017
$57.50
15
$55.00
14
$52.50
018
$50.00
21
$47.50
33
$45.00
5091
$42.50
00
$40.00
0
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$58.15+7.7%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$50.00-7.4%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$47.50-12.0%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$55.19+2.2%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$45.00-16.7%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +4
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 102%, short interest is 6.30% of float, and 2 analysts average $63.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+4LEANING · 30d
3 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
+1
1 price-target raise in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+3
latest EPS beat by 19%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($3,780,333 across 6 sells) in 120d
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
+2
strong Piotroski F-score (7/9)
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
-1
7d sentiment depressed (14/100)
Signal
3 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +4 over 30d, a leaning reading. 5 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 26, 2026
Signal
4 of 5 families lean up.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.14 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street2 covering firms
Consensus rating2 ANALYSTS
Sell
50% buy · 33% hold · 17% sell, as a share of the 2 covering firms.
Median price target+18%
$63
$40now $53$85
A $40–$85 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$3.07
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Barclays$60↑53/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
101.7%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
5.6%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
6.30%
Rising — shares short changed +8.3% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float95% OF SHARES
46.89M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)72nd PCTILE
$24.02M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Trundle Stephen · Director, Chief Executive OfficerGiftnot on file—02 Sep
Trundle Stephen · Director, Chief Executive OfficerOption exercise$1.6M—24 Aug
Trundle Stephen · Director, Chief Executive OfficerSell$2.9M—24 Aug
Trundle Stephen · Director, Chief Executive OfficerOption exercisenot on file—24 Aug
Bradley Kevin Christopher · Chief Financial OfficerSell$297,378—12 Aug
Bradley Kevin Christopher · Chief Financial OfficerSell$35,085—02 Jul
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
-0.11%
ALRM was little changed −0.11% since the last close — no notable catalyst, and the move itself was modest.
News tone · 7-day—
14 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 49 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
14h agoAlarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM) Stock Now Rated "Moderate Buy" by Wall Street Brokerages - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
WedAlarm.com Holdings (ALRM) Could Be 16% Below Fair Value On Options Buzz - simplywall.stsimplywall.stnot scored
TueAlarm.com Stock Stumbles As Macro Fears Slam SaaS - TipRanksTipRanksnot scored
TueDo Options Traders Know Something About Alarm.com Stock We Don't?Zacksnot scored
TueDo Options Traders Know Something About Alarm.com Stock We Don't? - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
TueDo Options Traders Know Something About Alarm.com Stock We Don't? - TradingViewTradingViewnot scored
MonAlarm.com Stock Sinks As Macro Fears Hit Tech - TipRanksTipRanksnot scored
Sep 18Alarm.com (NASDAQ:ALRM) Stock Price Passes Above Fifty Day Moving Average - Should You Sell? - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Evenly split.
3 of 6 disclosures are buys and 3 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0511 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.50, 18% annual volatility, a -21% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-20.7%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.50
The market explains about 4.6% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
18%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Falling knife
Selling pressure54
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: falling_knife — Still breaking lower without consolidation — a fresh swing-low printed and no basing pattern has formed yet.
What votes againstNightly
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($3,780,333 across 6 sells) in 120d120d · -1
LowSentiment7d sentiment depressed (14/100)1–30d · -1
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
1.1%0.1× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 55.0% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 3.2% is the number (n=140,733). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 1.7% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.44% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 40 days, and the chain prices ±8.8% for the week.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
25 logged
25 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on ALRMTHIS NAME
25
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksAPPLICATION SOFTWARE
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-27.7% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
SAPGFPeer$210.85+1.13%
SAPPeer$210.68+0.75%
CRMCompetitor$234.02-1.76%
SHOPPeer$142.25-2.00%
NOWPeer$135.62-1.57%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
3 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 3 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 25, 2026
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedSoftware companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day +0.1% · A week later -0.3% · Two weeks later +0.3% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, ALRM moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Software profits are mostly far in the future and worth less at higher rates.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later +0.6% · Rose on 14 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, ALRM moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedSoftware companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day +0.1% · A week later -0.3% · Two weeks later +0.3% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, ALRM moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Software companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day -0.2% · A week later -0.4% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 18 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, ALRM moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Software companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day -0.2% · A week later -0.4% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 18 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, ALRM moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Rising joblessness pushes the Fed toward lower rates, which lifts growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +0.3% · Rose on 81 of 170 report days
Across the last 170 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, ALRM moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expectedStrong hiring tells the Fed it can keep rates high, which weighs on growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +0.1% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, ALRM moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expected
Software companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day -0.2% · A week later -0.6% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, ALRM moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
AMZN · Suppliersupplier+0.12%Rumored · manual
MSFT · Partnerpartner+3.66%Rumored · manual
CRM · Competitorcompetitor-1.76%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.