Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) — Application Software. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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ALRM fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 260.1K · 3-mo avg 450.1K

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM)

ALRMAlarm.com Holdings, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+4net
3 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 6 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · Grey—PCE inflation days · not on fileRiskFalling knife · 70/100 · was 6 on Sep 21 · as of 2026-09-251/6Bottom watch · 1 of 6 confirmations
Smart entry
$53.11
basis · s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$55.15
center $55.15 · basis · round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$4.69
8.8% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
0.98× the norm · 78% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: falling knife
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.74×
52-week range$41.49 – $58.15
Below high since 2015-49.6% · $105.94 high
Risk / reward0.60 : 1
Plan stop$50.42
Max pain$47.50 options cluster
RSI 1437.7 fires under 35 · fires near $52.89
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple17.6× fwd · 23.9× trailing
P/E vs its own past19th pctile · 39.8× median
Free cash flow yield5.1% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 0.1%. Over the last 20 sessions, 51% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

4 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
37.7
fires under 35 · fires near $52.89
vs 50-day
✓
$55.19
below the line
Bollinger
●
$52.38
no lower pierce · fires near $52.04
VWAP 20
✓
$55.02
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$53.11
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$57.50
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-21
MACD
Context●
-0.38
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.74×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
6.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.35
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-05
in 30 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file