Shopify Inc. (SHOP) — Application Software. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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SHOPpeers & supply-chain relationships

SHOP fair-value estimate

SHOP earnings history

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 5.66M · 3-mo avg 9.56M

Shopify Inc. (SHOP)

SHOPShopify Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+6net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · moderate
Bull 9 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeOKPCE inflation days · ~41% smaller swingsOKNeutral tape · 1/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$141.54
basis · s1 + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$180–184
center $182.19 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$10.98
7.7% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.33× the norm · 88% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.58×
52-week range$94.00 – $182.19
Below high since 2015-21.9% · $182.19 high
Risk / reward2.22 : 1
Plan stop$124.30
Max pain$136.00 options cluster
RSI 1453.4 fires under 35 · fires near $112.32
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple57.4× fwd · 95.1× trailing
P/E vs its own past49th pctile · 95.9× median
Free cash flow yield1.1% · of market value

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price down 2.0%. Over the last 20 sessions, 57% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
53.4
fires under 35 · fires near $112.32
vs 50-day
●
$137.95
above the line · fires near $139.18
Bollinger
●
$121.62
no lower pierce · fires near $118.46
VWAP 20
●
$137.95
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $137.84
Entry level
✓
$141.54
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$135.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-23
MACD
Context✓
+0.63
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.58×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
1.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$7.51
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-03
in 28 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file