Shopify Inc. (SHOP) — $155.18 +2.38%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

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SHOP fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 10.81M · Avg 10.26M
SHOPShopify Inc.$155.18+2.38%Pre-market$153.91-0.82%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

1 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+6net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · moderate
Bull 9 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
1 of 6 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 0.6× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$154.40
basis · s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$180–184
center $182.19 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$11.65
7.5% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Pullback risk
In line
~83% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.3× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Volume vs 20-day avg1.05× · 10.81M vs 10.26M avg
52-week range$94.00 – $182.19
Below high since 2015-14.8% · $182.19 high
Risk / reward1 : 1.1
Plan stop$129.98
Max pain$128.00 options cluster
RSI 1472.9 overbought
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$155.18
$119.95 · -22.7%-22.7%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+7.5% · $166.83+7.5%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
72.9
overbought
vs 50-day
$120.06
above the line · fires near $120.39
Bollinger
$103.73
no lower pierce · fires below the slider range
VWAP 20
$131.28
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $131.18
Entry level
$154.40
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$140.00
OI strike below · fires near $140.65
MACD
+3.35
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.05×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
2.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$8.55
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
3 Nov 2026
· in 83 days
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
prices 15-min delayed