Shopify Inc. (SHOP) — Application Software. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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SHOPpeers & supply-chain relationships

SHOP fair-value estimate

SHOP earnings history

Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 9, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 6.01M · 3-mo avg 9.50M

Shopify Inc. (SHOP)

SHOPShopify Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+3net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 5 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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$151.30
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 9
$179–183
near the top of its usual range and the 52-week high · midpoint $180.88 · Nov 9
±$11.78
±7.8% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
High
87% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.3× the usual rate
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume35% below normal0.65× its 20-day average
Past year's range$94.00 – $180.88lowest to highest price
From its peak16.5% belowpeak $182.19, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk1.54 to 1$1.54 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$133.36the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$152.50price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)45.4fires under 35 · fires near $134.50
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit61.6× next year92.7× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 44%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 98.6×
Cash it generates1.0%of its market value, per year

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price up 2.1%. Over the last 20 sessions, 66% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
45.4
fires under 35 · fires near $134.50
vs 50-day
✓
$152.50
at the line
Bollinger
●
$142.55
no lower pierce · fires near $139.97
VWAP 20
✓
$160.84
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$151.30
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-3.10
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.65×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
1.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$8.97
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-10
in 63 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file