SAP SE (SAPGF) — Application Software. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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SAPGF fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 1.6K · 3-mo avg 60.8K

SAP SE (SAPGF)

SAPGFSAP SEloading…
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QTick signal
+2net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · balanced
Bull 2 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionPCE inflation days · ~7% bigger swingsOKNeutral tape · 1/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$209.80
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$279–282
center $280.75 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
—
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.33× the norm · 88% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.02×
52-week range$145.25 – $280.75
Below high since 2023-32.9% · $314.08 high
Risk / reward5.80 : 1
Plan stop$198.79
Max pain—
RSI 1452.6 fires under 35 · fires near $192.78
Forensic flags0 clean
Earnings multiple27.7× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield3.3% · of market value

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price up 1.1%. Over the last 20 sessions, 59% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 5 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
52.6
fires under 35 · fires near $192.78
vs 50-day
●
$200.58
above the line · fires near $202.35
Bollinger
●
$203.67
no lower pierce · fires near $202.11
VWAP 20
✓
$214.07
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$209.80
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-1.39
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.02×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
—
not on file
ATRStatic
$5.50
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-21
in 19 sessions
Next dividend
1.39% yld
no ex-date on file