Highest model-implied default probability
A structural (Merton) read off market cap, debt and volatility. Non-US filers and saturated readings are withheld — local-currency filings break the leverage input.
| # | Symbol | PD | Dist. to default | Leverage | Measured |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | ADTI | 99.9% | -3.08 | 0.82 | 2026-11-10 |
| 8 | OI | 99.5% | -2.54 | 0.79 | 2026-11-10 |
| 10 | SOC | 99.4% | -2.52 | 0.97 | 2026-11-10 |
| 11 | CHTR | 99.0% | -2.33 | 0.81 | 2026-11-10 |
| 12 | FUN | 96.8% | -1.85 | 0.77 | 2026-11-10 |
| 14 | GT | 95.7% | -1.71 | 0.81 | 2026-11-10 |
| 15 | RUN | 94.6% | -1.61 | 0.79 | 2026-11-10 |
| 16 | VWAV | 86.5% | -1.10 | 0.66 | 2026-11-10 |
| 17 | LCID | 85.6% | -1.06 | 0.62 | 2026-11-10 |
| 18 | CAR | 85.5% | -1.06 | 0.90 | 2026-11-10 |
| 20 | CRWV | 81.5% | -0.90 | 0.68 | 2026-11-10 |
| 24 | QDEL | 74.4% | -0.65 | 0.64 | 2026-11-10 |
| 26 | AIAI | 67.6% | -0.46 | 0.35 | 2026-11-10 |
| 27 | EYPT | 64.4% | -0.37 | 0.40 | 2026-11-10 |
| 28 | DJTWW | 64.2% | -0.36 | 0.45 | 2026-11-10 |
| 29 | LUMN | 63.6% | -0.35 | 0.62 | 2026-11-10 |
| 31 | METCB | 58.9% | -0.22 | 0.49 | 2026-11-10 |
| 32 | DJT | 58.3% | -0.21 | 0.47 | 2026-11-10 |
| 33 | WHR | 57.6% | -0.19 | 0.66 | 2026-11-10 |
| 34 | GTM | 56.9% | -0.17 | 0.49 | 2026-11-10 |
Highest model-implied probability of default (structural Merton read; also the closest-to-the-barrier distance-to-default ranking — same ordering) — observational, not advice. A point-in-time estimate from market cap, debt and volatility; not a credit rating.