Highest model-implied default probability
A structural (Merton) read off market cap, debt and volatility. Non-US filers and saturated readings are withheld — local-currency filings break the leverage input.
| # | Symbol | PD | Dist. to default | Leverage | Measured |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | CAR | 98.4% | -2.15 | 0.91 | 2026-09-26 |
| 34 | OI | 98.3% | -2.12 | 0.77 | 2026-09-26 |
| 37 | RUN | 97.8% | -2.01 | 0.83 | 2026-09-26 |
| 43 | FMC | 91.8% | -1.39 | 0.64 | 2026-09-26 |
| 44 | GT | 90.7% | -1.32 | 0.78 | 2026-09-26 |
| 48 | WOOF | 84.9% | -1.03 | 0.79 | 2026-09-26 |
| 51 | LCID | 77.5% | -0.75 | 0.56 | 2026-09-26 |
| 52 | PENN | 77.3% | -0.75 | 0.86 | 2026-09-26 |
| 53 | DFH | 76.5% | -0.72 | 0.62 | 2026-09-26 |
| 55 | FUN | 75.1% | -0.68 | 0.73 | 2026-09-26 |
| 56 | SOC | 68.1% | -0.47 | 0.44 | 2026-09-26 |
| 57 | NXGL | 67.7% | -0.46 | 0.43 | 2026-09-26 |
| 58 | KD | 65.3% | -0.39 | 0.56 | 2026-09-26 |
| 65 | ASGN | 55.1% | -0.13 | 0.53 | 2026-09-26 |
| 67 | NEXT | 54.4% | -0.11 | 0.88 | 2026-09-26 |
| 69 | CNXC | 53.2% | -0.08 | 0.62 | 2026-09-26 |
| 71 | WHR | 52.7% | -0.07 | 0.66 | 2026-09-26 |
| 73 | REZI | 51.0% | -0.02 | 0.55 | 2026-09-26 |
| 74 | VWAV | 49.6% | 0.01 | 0.32 | 2026-09-26 |
| 75 | GTM | 47.9% | 0.05 | 0.46 | 2026-09-26 |
Highest model-implied probability of default (structural Merton read; also the closest-to-the-barrier distance-to-default ranking — same ordering) — observational, not advice. A point-in-time estimate from market cap, debt and volatility; not a credit rating.