Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (DFH) — $13.79 −8.25%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

DFHpeers & supply-chain relationships

DFH fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:02 PM ETVol 1.35M · Avg 739.1K
DFHDream Finders Homes, Inc.$13.79-8.25%Pre-market$13.78-0.07%

SELL.

We're bearish on this stock — not a name to own here.

The net signal reads -6 — more evidence points down than up — and the 50-day average sits below the 200-day, 1 accounting red flag is raised in the filings. Buying a dip into that is catching a falling stock, not finding value; the read stands until the signal or the company's condition improves.

QTick signal
-6net
0 bull / 3 bear factors · moderate
Bull 0 pts·Bear 6 pts30d
Bearish tape — sell
We're bearish on this stock — the tape and the structure both say so.
Market contextSector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · GreyPCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$13.72
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$15–16
center $15.30 · basis · round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$1.29
9.4% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~95% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.2× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg1.83× · 1.35M vs 739.1K avg
52-week range$12.20 – $31.50
Below high since 2021-68.9% · $44.38 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.7
Plan stop$11.51
Max pain$10.00 options cluster
RSI 1444.1 fires under 35 · fires near $11.19
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$13.79
$11.12 · -19.3%-19.3%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+9.4% · $15.08+9.4%
Entry strategy · 10 triggersBearish tape — sell
RSI 14
44.1
fires under 35 · fires near $11.19
vs 50-day
$15.30
below the line
Bollinger
$12.80
no lower pierce · fires near $12.54
VWAP 20
$14.72
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$13.72
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$15.00
below max put OI strike
MACD
-0.07
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.83×
elevated versus recent average
Short int.Static
41.1%
41.1% of float short — crowded
ATRStatic
$1.17
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
29 Oct 2026
· in 78 days
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
prices 15-min delayed