Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) — $138.61 −2.51%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

CARpeers & supply-chain relationships

CAR fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 296.5K · Avg 729.2K
CARAvis Budget Group, Inc.$138.61-2.51%

SELL.

We're bearish on this stock — not a name to own here.

The net signal reads -6 — more evidence points down than up — and the balance-sheet safety score sits in its distress band, 1 accounting red flag is raised in the filings. Buying a dip into that is catching a falling stock, not finding value; the read stands until the signal or the company's condition improves.

QTick signal
-6net
1 bull / 5 bear factors · moderate
Bull 3 pts·Bear 9 pts30d
Bearish tape — sell
We're bearish on this stock — the tape and the structure both say so.
Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressPCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$137.92
basis · s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$156–160
center $157.82 · basis · round + sma 200 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$15.61
11.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 16% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
~95% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.2× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 16% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs 20-day avg0.41× · 296.5K vs 729.2K avg
52-week range$85.96 – $847.70
Below high since 2015-83.6% · $847.70 high
Risk / reward1 : 1.2
Plan stop$120.67
Max pain$150.00 options cluster
RSI 1436.9 fires under 35 · fires near $135.29
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$138.61
$123.00 · -11.3%-11.3%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+11.3% · $154.22+11.3%
Entry strategy · 10 triggersBearish tape — sell
RSI 14
36.9
fires under 35 · fires near $135.29
vs 50-day
$164.08
below the line
Bollinger
$132.06
no lower pierce · fires near $130.22
VWAP 20
$153.73
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$137.92
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$140.00
below max put OI strike
MACD
-1.14
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.41×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
56.5%
56.5% of float short — crowded
ATRStatic
$8.62
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
27 Oct 2026
· in 77 days
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
Appears in
prices 15-min delayed