NEXGEL, Inc. (NXGL) — $0.39 +6.69%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

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NXGLpeers & supply-chain relationships

NXGL fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 2:59 PM ETVol 1.39M · Avg 245.3K
NXGLNEXGEL, Inc.$0.39+6.69%

WAIT.

A falling knife — never catch it mid-drop.

The stock is still dropping hard on heavy volume with no support underneath. 3 of 4 entry triggers may be firing, but a live slide overrides them — that is exactly the setup this check exists for. It does not call the bottom; it says the drop is not finished.

QTick signal
-1net
1 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 5 pts30d
3 of 4 aligned — not yet
A falling knife — the guard overrides the entry triggers.
Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressPCE sensitivity · not on fileRiskFalling-knife phase · 96/100 · was 100 on Aug 60/6Bottom watch · 0 of 6 confirmations
Smart entry
model abstained · segment micro
Target exit
model abstained · segment micro
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
Elevated
~99% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.1× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg5.66× · 1.39M vs 245.3K avg
52-week range$0.33 – $2.89
Below high since 2021-92.9% · $5.10 high
Risk / reward
Plan stop
Max pain
RSI 1435.0 washed out
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$0.39
$0.31 · -19.1%-19.1%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+19.1% · $0.46+19.1%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers3 of 4 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
35.0
washed out
vs 50-day
$0.50
below the line
Bollinger
$0.36
no lower pierce · fires near $0.35
VWAP 20
$0.41
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
not on file
Put wall
not on file
MACD
0.00
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
5.66×
elevated versus recent average
Short int.Static
2.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.04
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 4 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
11 Aug 2026
· in -1 days
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
prices 15-min delayed