Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) — $4.53 −11.00%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

SOCpeers & supply-chain relationships

SOC fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated not on fileVol 2.86M · Avg 8.44M
SOCSable Offshore Corp.$4.53-11.00%

SELL.

We're bearish on this stock — not a name to own here.

The net signal reads -5 — more evidence points down than up — and the 50-day average sits below the 200-day, 2 accounting red flags are raised in the filings. Buying a dip into that is catching a falling stock, not finding value; the read stands until the signal or the company's condition improves.

QTick signal
-5net
0 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 0 pts·Bear 5 pts30d
Bearish tape — sell
We're bearish on this stock — the tape and the structure both say so.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on filePCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$5.06
basis · s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$5.28
center $5.28 · basis · daily pivot + round + vwap 50 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~95% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.2× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.34× · 2.86M vs 8.44M avg
52-week range$2.88 – $31.74
Below high since 2021-85.5% · $35.00 high
Risk / reward1 : 2.1
Plan stop$4.17
Max pain
RSI 1447.7 fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
Forensic flags2 review
What-if price
$4.53
$3.62 · -20.0%-20.0%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+17.0% · $5.30+17.0%
Entry strategy · 10 triggersBearish tape — sell
RSI 14
47.7
fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
vs 50-day
$7.11
below the line
Bollinger
$3.90
no lower pierce · fires near $3.78
VWAP 20
$4.53
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $4.52
Entry level
$5.06
below the model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
+0.23
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.34×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
30.1%
30.1% of float short — crowded
ATRStatic
$0.38
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
not on file
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
Appears in
prices 15-min delayed