Deep dive · NYQ: TMHC
Taylor Morrison Home Corp stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Taylor Morrison Home Corp. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Event and Street are pulling against each other and the split is genuine rather than a formality. The net lands at +1 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.40.
Leans up · and why
earnings, sentiment vote up. 2 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
analyst moves, insider flow vote down. 2 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Event against Street.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are short gamma, so swings get bigger both ways.
Global tape
No overseas listings — TMHC trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart here
Wall Street rating
Hold
-8% to the average target
0% buy · 86% hold · 14% sell
median target $67
median target $67
Valuation
11.5× forward
97th of its own five-year range
5yr median 7×
FCF yield 11.48%
FCF yield 11.48%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 3 clear
worst drawdown 0%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does132 chars
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a homebuilder and land developer in the United States.
NYQ · USDResidential Construction
$72.45-0.02 · -0.03%CLOSED · vol 9.19M
52-week range↑ 34% off low · ↓ 0.1% off high
$54.15now $72.45$72.50
Quote Jul 23, 2026 · 4:03 PM ET
Tape 2026-07-23
Tape 2026-07-23
01Ratios · Jun 23, 2026NO SOLVENCY RISK
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 3.9 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 3 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
3.94SAFE ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 23, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
4.9σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.29%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 4/9
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills11.11×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.38
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.23
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$1.51B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
54th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldSHRINKING
5.77%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
5.77%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
0.4%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
1.65%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
80 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 3 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 3.95Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.34M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.36long-term debt 0.36× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/9Piotroski F-score 4 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 3 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026FAIR · 40/100
Business quality
10% net margin, 12% return on equity, -1% revenue growth, and capital earning 11% against a 8% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
40 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
9.6%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
23.0%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
14.0%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
12.4%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
3.6pp
Earns 11% on invested capital that costs about 8%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
-18.0%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+0.7%
3 months+12.6%
6 months+14.5%
Year to date+23.2%
1 year+12.7%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-0.6%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-6.1%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
Around earningsApr 22, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
64%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
6 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
55%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±3.2%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missSYMMETRIC
+0.2% / +0.9%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
Sells the newsON THE PRINT
No
No habit of selling off on a good report in the measured window.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 26, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,132,432
21d47%-0.1%531,932
63d48%-0.7%170,248
slope +0.09 over 40 bars
Shooting star · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%164,681
21d51%+0.1%77,480
63d50%+0.1%24,763
long upper shadow, small body at bottom
Tweezer top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%324,295
21d47%0.0%152,024
63d50%0.0%48,500
matching highs
Evening star · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%+0.1%145,296
21d50%0.0%68,315
63d50%0.0%21,518
3-bar top reversal
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%975,500
21d52%+0.2%458,215
63d54%+0.5%144,909
three peaks ≈ equal
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,247,184
21d50%0.0%586,365
63d51%+0.3%185,394
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%964,809
21d50%0.0%453,015
63d52%+0.3%142,744
three troughs ≈ equal
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%646,584
21d51%+0.1%303,544
63d53%+0.5%96,103
flat resistance, rising support
52w breakout · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%195,888
21d46%0.0%91,765
63d52%+0.2%28,677
at/near 52-week high
Near support · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%536,115
21d53%+0.2%251,312
63d54%+0.4%78,900
testing recent support
Rsi overbought · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d40%0.0%265,199
21d42%0.0%124,339
63d46%0.0%39,280
RSI 74 ≥ 70
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%764,373
21d45%0.0%357,385
63d47%0.0%112,620
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
0397TH OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $72.45, 11.5× forward earnings, RSI 72, and dealers short gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Momentum (RSI-14)
72OVERBOUGHT
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-07-19 → 2026-07-23
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 0.03% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.33
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Pivots (classic)R1 $72 · S1 $72
$72.46
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
DeMark countdownFLAT SETUP
0 of 9
Counts consecutive closes against the prior trend. A completed 9 often marks exhaustion.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
54 / 46cohort n=21,704
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.00× segment rate · n=80,992
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 79% of cases (n=80,992).
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 0 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 46% of cases (n=21,704) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
4.30pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-9.29
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months11.5×5yr median 7×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported10.8×97th of its 5yr range
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.8×5yr median 0.7×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.1×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay7.1×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off10.7×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value11.48%
0 of the 7 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThis security is delisted, so there is no live tape to compose entry, target and stop against.
Gamma mapChain · Aug 2, 2026
Signal
Short gamma — moves get amplified.
Dealers hedge in the same direction as the move, so swings get bigger both ways rather than one. That argues for a smaller position size, not for a direction.
Options tapeLast snapshot before the 2026-08-21 expiry · Chain · Aug 2, 2026
Max pain-3.4%
$70.00
The strike where most open options would have expired worthless on the last snapshot. That expiry has passed; the next chain read replaces it.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.11
90% calls
10% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.27
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $0.16
±0.2%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$85.00CALL702
$40.00PUT62
$75.00CALL61
$70.00CALL46
$70.00PUT30
$55.00CALL3
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-08-21 (expired)CallsPutsMax pain $70.00
702
$85.00
01
$80.00
061
$75.00
146
$70.00
303
$55.00
00
$40.00
62
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$72.50+0.1%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$85.00+17.3%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$70.00-3.4%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ Put wall$40.00-44.8%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +1
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 104%, short interest is 3.39% of float, and 8 analysts average $67.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+1BALANCED · 30d
2 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
-1
1 analyst downgrade in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+2
latest EPS beat by 33%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($16,638,822 across 25 sells) in 120d
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (85/100)
Signal
2 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 26, 2026
Signal
The evidence families are split down the middle.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.40 means the disagreement is a genuine split.
Wall Street8 covering firms
Consensus rating8 ANALYSTS
Hold
0% buy · 86% hold · 14% sell, as a share of the 8 covering firms.
Median price target-8%
$67
$49now $72$73
A $49–$73 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$6.41
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Barclays$73↑53/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
104.2%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.8%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
3.39%
The share of the tradable float sold short.
Free float99% OF SHARES
92.71M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)93rd PCTILE
$243.57M/day
At this depth, position size is not a constraint for a retail account.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
VANHYFTE CURTIS · CFOSell$211,845—24 Jul
Ostis Heather C · DirectorSell$224,460—24 Jul
Ostis Heather C · DirectorSell$238,308—24 Jul
Lane Peter R. · DirectorSell$5.6M—24 Jul
Yip Christopher J. · DirectorSell$792,425—24 Jul
Yip Christopher J. · DirectorSell$963,888—24 Jul
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Sep 24, 2026NONE
-0.03%
TMHC was little changed −0.03% since the last close — no notable catalyst, and the move itself was modest.
News tone · 7-day—
85 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 48 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
WedTaylor Morrison Home stock holds its trading focus on September 23, 2026 - AD HOC NEWSAD HOC NEWSnot scored
TueTaylor Morrison Home stock holds near 52-week high after Berkshire acquisition - AD HOC NEWSAD HOC NEWSnot scored
SunTaylor Morrison Home stock holds near 52-week high after Berkshire stake boost - AD HOC NEWSAD HOC NEWSnot scored
Sep 17TMHC stock rises as a cash merger reshapes the story - ad-hoc-news.dead-hoc-news.denot scored
Sep 9Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) Institutional Ownership 2026 - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
Aug 28Taylor Morrison (TMHC) Holds Steady at $72.45 as Homebuilder Consolidates - Reversal Setup Alerts - vinanet.vnvinanet.vnnot scored
Aug 27Taylor Morrison (TMHC) Q2 2025 Earnings: Results, Market Reaction & History - 24/7 Wall St.24/7 Wall St.not scored
Aug 23Taylor (TMHC) Market: Stays Close to Unchanged at $72.45 for the Current Session; Chart View: the Current Price Sits Inside the Supplied Technical Range at the Close - Modified Schiff - vinanet.vnvinanet.vnnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Evenly split.
3 of 6 disclosures are buys and 3 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0510 graded calls
Risk & track record
a 0% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
0.0%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
What votes againstNightly
LowAnalyst moves1 analyst downgrade in 90d90d · -1
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($16,638,822 across 25 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Avoid score6-month distress
0.6%0.1× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
LowPosition sizeThe sizing model has not covered this name, so no defensible cap is published for it.Not scored
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
26 logged
26 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on TMHCTHIS NAME
26
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-122.4% per +1ppMEASURED
Measured against the 10-year yield: a one-point move in the yield has come with about a 122.4% move here, independent of company news.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
DHICompetitor$141.51+0.83%
PHMPeer$119.85+1.41%
LENCompetitor$82.15+0.83%
LEN-BPeer$80.49+0.76%
NVRPeer$6,297.60+1.00%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 3 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 22, 2026
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedMortgage rates rise on hot inflation and fewer people can afford a new home.
Typical for the Residential Construction industry
On the day -0.1% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +1.0% · Rose on 17 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, TMHC moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 1.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Mortgage rates move within the hour and price buyers out.
Typical for the Residential Construction industry
On the day +0.4% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +1.8% · Rose on 17 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, TMHC moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 1.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
This is the builders' own production figure.
Typical for the Residential Construction industry
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +0.3% · Rose on 18 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, TMHC moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedMortgage rates rise on hot inflation and fewer people can afford a new home.
Typical for the Residential Construction industry
On the day -0.1% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +1.0% · Rose on 17 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, TMHC moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 1.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
This report is the sector's own sales figure, printed monthly.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.3% · Rose on 17 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, TMHC moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Mortgage rates rise on hot inflation and fewer people can afford a new home.
Typical for the Residential Construction industry
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +0.5% · Rose on 18 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, TMHC moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Mortgage rates rise on hot inflation and fewer people can afford a new home.
Typical for the Residential Construction industry
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +0.5% · Rose on 18 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, TMHC moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Lower mortgage rates bring buyers back, outweighing the weaker job picture.
Typical for the Residential Construction industry
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 85 of 162 report days
Across the last 162 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, TMHC moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · 3 confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
PCYO · Suppliersupplier0.00%Confirmed · 10K
DHI · Competitorcompetitor+0.83%Confirmed · manual
LEN · Competitorcompetitor+0.83%Confirmed · manual
3 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.