Deep dive · NYSE: SJM
The J. M. Smucker Company stock analysis
Everything behind the call on The J. M. Smucker Company. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Event and Quality are pulling against each other and the split is genuine rather than a formality. The net lands at +1 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.47, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings, analyst moves, sentiment vote up. 3 of 6 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
quality / value, insider flow vote down. 3 of 6 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Event against Quality.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are long gamma, so their hedging absorbs moves rather than amplifying them; separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −5.6%; and the binding position cap is 3.9% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean+0.58%
FrankfurtJM2+0.79%⏱London0L7F+1.54%⏱ZurichJM20.00%⏱MéxicoSJM*0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 4 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Wall Street rating
Buy
+15% to the average target
53% buy · 47% hold · 0% sell
median target $141
median target $141
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $120.54 · +2.0%
200-day $105.82 · +16.2%
200-day $105.82 · +16.2%
Earnings
In 67 days
24 Nov 2026 · options imply ±4.5%
beat 5–6 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,184
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,184
Dividend
3.64%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta -0.26 · vol 22% ann.
worst drawdown -23%
worst drawdown -23%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NYSE · USDPackaged Foods
$122.95-0.80 · -0.65%AH · vol 2.93M
52-week range↑ 39% off low · ↓ 9.5% off high
$88.25now $122.95$135.89
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · 3:15 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
01Ratios · Jun 23, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 1.3 against a 3.0 safe threshold, interest covered 4.4×, and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
1.25DISTRESS ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 23, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
7.0σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.12%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 6/9
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills0.78×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital1.28
Interest coverageoperating profit against the interest bill4.4×healthy >5
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.40
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$7.03B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
84th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.05%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE D
50 / 100
1 critical · 3 watch · 1 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ 1.26Altman-Z in the Distress · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.82M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageWATCHLTD/E 1.15long-term debt 1.15× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 6/9Piotroski F-score 6 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 3 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026POOR · 33/100
Business quality
-2% net margin, -3% return on equity, +4% revenue growth, and capital earning 6% against a 5% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
33 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-1.5%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
33.5%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
14.8%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-2.5%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
1.2pp
Earns 6% on invested capital that costs about 5%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
-8.4%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+0.7%
3 months+11.6%
6 months+23.2%
Year to date+28.1%
1 year+17.6%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+3.7%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+18.0%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 25%
75 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 26, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
64%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
6 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
36%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±3.5%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missSYMMETRIC
+0.6% / +2.2%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
Sells the newsON THE PRINT
No
No habit of selling off on a good report in the measured window.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
3.64%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
>2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 18, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.1%1,125,547
21d47%-0.2%529,218
63d48%-0.9%169,468
slope +0.07 over 40 bars
Morning star · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%-0.1%133,742
21d49%-0.1%63,030
63d49%-0.2%20,141
3-bar bottom reversal
03
Price & timing
Price $122.95, RSI 49, and dealers long gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2002 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $120.54 · 200-day $105.82. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-13 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Down 0.65% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
49
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±2.3%
$2.78
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.89
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position30% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$126.86
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$127.55
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
24 Nov 2026 · in 67 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 30 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
50 / 50cohort n=13,084
Effectively a coin flip. A split this close is not an edge you can size on, whichever side is nominally ahead. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.02× segment rate · n=7,908
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 68% of cases (n=7,908).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-0.6σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$121 – $1231 support
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $122.64.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds are a coin flip.
Historically, names tripping 1 validated red flag finished lower 12 months later in 50% of cases (n=13,084) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-3.27pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-46.72
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported57.2×
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth6.06
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit1.4×5yr median 1.5×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets2.4×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay23.0×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off17.4×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value8.82%
3 of the 7 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 17, 2026
Entryzone of S1
$123.13In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
Target52-week high
$135.89$135–$137
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$117.57risk $5.56/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
2.29:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-2.0%
short-term trend line · $120.54
To the 200-day
-13.9%
primary trend line · $105.82
To the put wall
-30.9%
heaviest put open interest · $85.00
To the call wall
+1.7%
heaviest call open interest · $125.00
To the composer's target
+10.5%
52-week high · set Sep 17, 2026 · $135.89
To the composer's stop
-4.4%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 17, 2026 · $117.57
To the 52-week high
+10.5%
highest print of the past year · $135.89
To the 52-week low
-28.2%
lowest print of the past year · $88.25
Options-implied week ±4.5%
$117.44 – $128.46
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$120.17 – $125.73
±$2.78 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $123.13 · stop $117.57 · target $135.89, a 2.29:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 18, 2026
Signal
Long gamma — moves get absorbed.
Dealers hedge against the move, which damps volatility around the current strikes. It makes the tape quieter without saying anything about which way it goes.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-09-18 · Chain · Sep 18, 2026
Max pain-3.0%
$120.00
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.88
53% calls
47% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.82
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $5.54
±4.5%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$125.00CALL1,602
$130.00CALL976
$85.00PUT969
$130.00PUT867
$110.00PUT849
$115.00CALL714
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-09-18CallsPutsMax pain $120.00
3
$160.00
035
$155.00
0702
$150.00
097
$145.00
086
$140.00
0561
$135.00
8976
$130.00
8672k
$125.00
385514
$120.00
253714
$115.00
359225
$110.00
849355
$105.00
3852
$100.00
32522
$95.00
2141
$90.00
3740
$85.00
969
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$135.89+9.8%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$125.00+1.0%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$120.00-3.0%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$120.54-2.6%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$85.00-31.3%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +1
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 91%, short interest is 4.32% of float, and 15 analysts average $141.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+1BALANCED · 30d
3 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
+1
11 price-target raises in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+2
latest EPS beat by 46%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($16,903,076 across 8 sells) in 120d
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
Altman-Z in the distress zone
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (92/100)
Signal
3 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 5 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 18, 2026
Signal
The evidence families are split down the middle.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.47 means the disagreement is a genuine split.
Wall Street15 covering firms
Consensus rating15 ANALYSTS
Buy
53% buy · 47% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 15 covering firms.
Median price target+15%
$141
$114now $123$157
A $114–$157 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$9.01
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Barclays$145↑50/100
TD Cowen$136↑47/100
Bernstein$157↑46/100
RBC Capital$150↑48/100
Wells Fargo$144↑49/100
Evercore ISI Group$150↑48/100
UBS$142↑50/100
Jefferies$140↑47/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
90.8%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
2.3%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
4.32%
Falling — shares short changed -20.0% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float98% OF SHARES
104.35M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)91st PCTILE
$176.02M/day
At this depth, position size is not a constraint for a retail account.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
SMUCKER MARK T · Director, CEO, Chair of BoardOption exercise$9.2M—31 Aug
SMUCKER MARK T · Director, CEO, Chair of BoardSell$11.1M—31 Aug
SMUCKER MARK T · Director, CEO, Chair of BoardOption exercise$9.2M—31 Aug
Penrose Jill R · Chief People OfficerTax withholding$192,005—01 Sep
Ferguson Robert D · Chief Product Supply OfficerTax withholding$147,322—01 Sep
Ferguson Robert D · Chief Product Supply OfficerSell$333,938—31 Aug
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayVOLUME
-0.65%
SJM fell −0.65% in after-hours trading on unusually heavy volume (2.1× its average).
News tone · 7-day—
92 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 46 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
ThuJ.M. Smucker (SJM) Investors Weigh In As Folgers Functional Coffee Range Hits Market - londoninsider.co.uklondoninsider.co.uknot scored
SunWhat Does J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM) Show in S&P 500? - Kalkine MediaKalkine Medianot scored
SunJ. M. Smucker (SJM) Pulls Back As Undervalued Narrative Faces A Fresh Test - simplywall.stsimplywall.stnot scored
SatThe J. M. Smucker Company $SJM Stock Holdings Lifted by California State Teachers Retirement System - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
Sep 11J. M. Smucker (SJM) Stock Price, News & Analysis $SJM - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
Sep 103 Reasons to Sell SJM and 1 Stock to Buy InsteadStockStorynot scored
Sep 103 Reasons to Sell SJM and 1 Stock to Buy Instead - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
Sep 103 Reasons to Sell SJM and 1 Stock to Buy Instead - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Evenly split.
3 of 6 disclosures are buys and 3 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0510 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta -0.26, 22% annual volatility, a -23% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−5.6%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−15.4%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementHEAVY TAIL
1.4×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.4×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-22.8%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
-0.26
The market explains about 1.4% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
22%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure9
Buying pressure6
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
MedQuality / valueAltman-Z in the distress zoneTTM · -2
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($16,903,076 across 8 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.9%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.9% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
0.6%0.1× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 77.2% · tail cap 3.9% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 4.0% is the number (n=29,742). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 4.3% against a 8.7% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Data unavailableNone of the skip conditions can be evaluated for this name yet — they each need a measured drawdown, beta, yield or scheduled report to key off.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
30 logged
30 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on SJMTHIS NAME
30
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksPACKAGED FOODS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 1 connection.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-52.5% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
KHCPeer$24.43-1.21%
GISPeer$36.32-0.93%
MKCPeer$48.72-1.97%
MKC-VPeer$49.32-4.79%
HRLPeer$20.83+0.34%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
3 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 14, 2026
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
Grocery and household goods are part of the same total.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, SJM moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsLittle effect either way
Grocery and household spending barely changes with the job market.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 81 of 169 report days
Across the last 169 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, SJM moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +0.1% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, SJM moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionLittle effect either way
Everyday essentials sell the same either way.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, SJM moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Little effect either way
Food and household brands pass higher costs on to shoppers over time; little reaction on the day.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later 0.0% · Two weeks later +0.9% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, SJM moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 7 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Little effect either wayLittle direct link.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.7% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later -0.8% · Rose on 20 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, SJM moved +0.7% on average on the day and was 0.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 12 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Little effect either wayFood and household brands pass higher costs on to shoppers over time; little reaction on the day.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later -0.4% · Two weeks later -1.0% · Rose on 16 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, SJM moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 1.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Little effect either way
Food and household brands pass higher costs on to shoppers over time; little reaction on the day.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +1.0% · Rose on 18 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, SJM moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 1.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Customer momentumSep 18, 2026
Customer momentumBOTTOM
-6.0%
The dependency-weighted trailing return of the customers this company discloses a revenue dependence on. Their tape leads its orders.
Lead-lag gapAHEAD OF CUSTOMERS
+10.8%
This company's own move less its customers' weighted move. A wide gap in either direction usually closes.
Disclosed customer dependencies
CustomerRevenue weightWindow returnLast filed
WMT33.0%-6.0%2024-06-18
Weights are as disclosed in the filings, so they describe the last reported period rather than today. Historical, point-in-time backtest of a cross-sectional screen (135 months, 2013-2026), gross of trading costs. The equal-weighted base effect is marginal (t 1.84); statistical significance relies on the dependency weighting (t 2.02). Validated on monthly rebalancing; served daily on the same 21-bar horizon. This is a research screen describing a group-level historical spread - not a forecast of any individual stock's return.
Connections1 link · none confirmed
Direct connections · 1 edge
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
WMT · Customercustomer-0.06%Rumored · 10K
0 of 1 edge is named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
Who depends on it
WMTCustomercustomer
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.