Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) — Packaged Foods. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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HRL fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:03 PM ETVol 4.42M · 3-mo avg 4.43M

Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)

HRLHormel Foods Corporationloading…
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QTick signal
+5net
3 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 5 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 64/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$19.61
basis · low 52w + pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$22.88
center $22.88 · basis · sma 200 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$1.06
5.4% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 15% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
1.23× the norm · 81% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 15% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.88×
52-week range$19.42 – $26.60
Below high since 2015-66.0% · $57.92 high
Risk / reward3.25 : 1
Plan stop$18.74
Max pain$20.50 options cluster
RSI 1421.7 oversold
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple12.7× fwd · 31.8× trailing
P/E vs its own past45th pctile · 23.7× median
Free cash flow yield4.9% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 0.7%. Over the last 20 sessions, 58% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 6 aligned — STRIKE
RSI 14
✓
21.7
oversold
vs 50-day
✓
$23.19
below the line
Bollinger
●
$19.58
no lower pierce · fires near $19.54
VWAP 20
✓
$21.05
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$19.61
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$21.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-23
MACD
Context●
-0.02
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.88×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
7.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.44
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
Next earnings
2026-12-03
in 48 sessions
Next dividend
5.94% yld
no ex-date on file