The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) — Packaged Foods. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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SJMpeers & supply-chain relationships

SJM fair-value estimate

SJM earnings history

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.58M · 3-mo avg 1.27M

The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)

SJMThe J. M. Smucker Companyloading…
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QTick signal
+1net
3 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 6
$129.90
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 6
$135–137
near the top of its usual range and the 52-week high · midpoint $136.22 · Nov 6
±$7.30
±5.6% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
In line
67% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.0× the usual rate
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume29% above normal1.29× its 20-day average
Past year's range$88.25 – $136.22lowest to highest price
From its peak19.0% belowpeak $161.19, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.65 to 1$0.65 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$121.77the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$125.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)56.7fires under 35 · fires near $112.44
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit61.0× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 100%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 22.6×
Cash it generates8.3%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 2.0%. Over the last 20 sessions, 40% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
56.7
fires under 35 · fires near $112.44
vs 50-day
●
$124.59
above the line · fires near $125.65
Bollinger
●
$120.59
no lower pierce · fires near $119.13
VWAP 20
●
$128.25
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $128.10
Entry level
✓
$129.90
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context✓
+0.28
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
1.29×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
3.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$3.88
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-24
in 12 sessions
Next dividend
USD 1.12
ex-date 2026-11-13