Deep dive · NasdaqGS: RJET
Republic Airways Holdings Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Republic Airways Holdings Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tapeOverseas lean0.00%
FrankfurtM2A00.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 1 overseas venue listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-17
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $18.75 · -5.7%
200-day $19.09 · -7.4%
200-day $19.09 · -7.4%
Earnings
In 54 days
11 Nov 2026
cohort P(beat) 61% · n=139,757
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 1.54 · vol 37% ann.
worst drawdown -36%
worst drawdown -36%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NasdaqGS · USDAirlines
$17.68+0.39 · +2.26%AH · vol 286.5K
52-week range↑ 15% off low · ↓ 33.8% off high
$15.37now $17.68$26.70
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · time not on file
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-17
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-17
01Ratios · Aug 31, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 1.3 against a 3.0 safe threshold, interest covered 2.8×, and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
1.29DISTRESS ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetAug 31, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)STRESSED
1.2σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
2.97%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreCLEAR
F 7/9
Piotroski F-score 7 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills0.94×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.92
Interest coverageoperating profit against the interest bill2.8×healthy >5
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.31
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$1.09B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
78th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldISSUING
-12.27%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.05%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
1.2%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
SBC / operating cash flowFLAT
4%
How much of the cash the business generates is being handed to employees as stock. The higher it runs, the more of a buyback is just offsetting it.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
1.59%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
60 / 100
1 critical · 2 watch · 2 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ 1.29Altman-Z in the Distress · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationWATCHM -1.59M-score elevated (m5 7/8) · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.66long-term debt 0.66× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCLEARF 7/9Piotroski F-score 7 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 2 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026FAIR · 49/100
Business quality
5% net margin, 6% return on equity, +14% revenue growth, and capital earning 6% against a 7% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
49 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
4.5%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
27.8%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
12.8%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
5.7%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-0.9pp
Earns 6% on invested capital that costs about 7%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Asset growth vs peersIN LINE
70th pctile
The balance sheet grew +18% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-9.6%
3 months-4.2%
6 months+2.1%
Year to date-11.9%
1 year-17.1%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+13.7%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+15.4%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-3.2%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 47%
47 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earnings
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — no measured print on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Next reportIN 54 DAYS
11 Nov 2026
Reports bmo · revenue 0.00
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 18, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,260,321
21d48%0.0%593,656
63d47%-0.5%186,156
slope -0.12 over 40 bars
Tweezer bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d45%0.0%343,068
21d46%0.0%161,560
63d47%0.0%50,875
matching lows
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,212,095
21d51%+0.1%570,206
63d52%+0.4%180,573
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%643,427
21d51%+0.2%302,356
63d53%+0.5%95,587
flat resistance, rising support
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%757,951
21d45%0.0%355,725
63d47%0.0%112,112
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
Macd bullish cross · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.1%152,221
21d47%-0.2%71,780
63d48%-0.1%22,643
MACD crossed above signal
03
Price & timing
Price $17.68, RSI 41.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $18.75 · 200-day $19.09. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-13 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 2.26% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
41
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±3.5%
$0.61
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.04
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position41% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$17.87
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$18.36
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
11 Nov 2026 · in 54 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 28 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
50 / 50cohort n=13,084
Effectively a coin flip. A split this close is not an edge you can size on, whichever side is nominally ahead. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Elevated1.07× segment rate · n=11,906
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 85% of cases (n=11,906).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.0σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$17 – $173 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $17.00, S1 at $16.98, Pivot low at $16.95.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
34 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds are a coin flip.
Historically, names tripping 1 validated red flag finished lower 12 months later in 50% of cases (n=13,084) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
3.64pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-23.87
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported11.6×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.5×5yr median 0.1×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets0.6×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay6.4×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value-10.64%
1 of the 5 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 17, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$17.20Approach
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetRound + sma 50 + vwap 50
$18.83$19–$19
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$15.98risk $1.23/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
1.33:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+6.1%
short-term trend line · $18.75
To the 200-day
+8.0%
primary trend line · $19.09
To the composer's target
+6.5%
Round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 17, 2026 · $18.83
To the composer's stop
-9.6%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 17, 2026 · $15.98
To the 52-week high
+51.0%
highest print of the past year · $26.70
To the 52-week low
-13.1%
lowest print of the past year · $15.37
A typical day (ATR)
$17.07 – $18.29
±$0.61 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $17.20 · stop $15.98 · target $18.83, a 1.33:1 ratio. The composer flagged: elevated distress, fair-value reference.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +1
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 85%, short interest is 10.48% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+1BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (83/100)
Signal
1 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
84.9%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
12.3%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
10.48%
Rising — shares short changed +19.8% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float20% OF SHARES
9.55M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)50th PCTILE
$2.17M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Hornback Scott · See RemarksTax withholding$47,942—17 Aug
Koscal Matthew · Director, See RemarksTax withholding$236,473—17 Aug
Pulley Chad M. · See RemarksTax withholding$119,561—17 Aug
Allman Joseph · Executive Vice President & CFOTax withholding$110,361—17 Aug
Kinstedt Paul · Executive Vice President & COOTax withholding$108,076—17 Aug
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayVOLUME
+2.26%
RJET rose +2.26% in after-hours trading on unusually heavy volume (2.3× its average).
News tone · 7-day—
83 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 47 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
Sep 10Republic Airways (RJET) Edges Higher to $17.90, Holding Above Key Support - Wave Truncation - dars.gov.etdars.gov.etnot scored
Aug 24Republic (RJET) Range: Records a 0.91% Increase to $18.92 in the Latest Reading; Support at $17.97 and Resistance at $19.87 Frame the Range on the Day - Low Volume Node - vinanet.vnvinanet.vnnot scored
Aug 21Mesa Air Group (NASDAQ:RJET) Trading Down 3% - Should You Sell? - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
Aug 20Republic Airways Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: RJET) Share Price, RJET Stock News, RJET Share Price & Updates - kalkine.cakalkine.canot scored
Aug 20Republic Airways Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: RJET) Share Price, RJET Stock News, RJET Share Price & Updates - KalkineKalkinenot scored
Aug 19Republic Airways CEO Matthew Koscal Reports Share Withholding Transaction for Tax Purposes - Kalkine MediaKalkine Medianot scored
Aug 16Republic Airways (RJET) Slips 1.2% as Shares Test Key Support Zone - Call Spread Alert - VinanetVinanetnot scored
Aug 15Republic Airways Holdings (RJET) Eases 1.2% to $20.33, Extending Rangebound Stance - PCR Moving Average - VinanetVinanetnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net selling.
0 of 6 disclosures are buys and 6 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
050 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.54, 37% annual volatility, a -36% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−8.9%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−12.6%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.0×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-35.5%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
1.54
The market explains about 9.0% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
37%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure53
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
17.1%2.3× its cohort · thinly-traded small-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this thinly-traded small-caps segment: 7.5%. This name reads 2.3× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 27.2% · tail cap 2.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.2% is the number (n=92,785). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 4.1% against a 10.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
HighCash runwayAbout 6.1 quarters of cash at current burn ($134M cash against $89M a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 23.5% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighRestatement history11 restatements in 2 years. The flagged-company base rate is 6.2× the unflagged one.Integrity
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -36%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 37% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 1.54 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.2% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
13 logged
13 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on RJETTHIS NAME
13
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksAIRLINES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 5 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+32.3% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
DALPeer$79.62+0.24%
UALSupplier$108.71+0.99%
RYAAYPeer$53.51+0.02%
RYAOFPeer$29.57-22.18%
LUVPeer$40.98+1.59%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 13, 2026
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later +2.5% · Two weeks later -0.5% · Rose on 15 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, RJET moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.5% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
GDP (advance estimate)Usually helps when the economy grows faster than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later -0.4% · Two weeks later -1.8% · Rose on 7 of 13 report days
Across the last 13 GDP (advance estimate) reports since Jul 28, 2023, RJET moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 1.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Leisure travel drops with employment.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day -0.4% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 60 of 169 report days
Across the last 169 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, RJET moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Building products and equipment makers.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later -1.3% · Two weeks later +0.1% · Rose on 15 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, RJET moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 0.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expected
Airlines carry heavy debt and sell discretionary travel; hotter inflation hurts both.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day +0.4% · A week later +2.5% · Two weeks later +1.5% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, RJET moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 1.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
Goods have to be made and shipped before they are sold.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later +2.5% · Two weeks later -0.5% · Rose on 15 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, RJET moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.5% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 7 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Usually helps when consumers feel better than expectedConfident people book holidays.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day +0.7% · A week later -1.3% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 22 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, RJET moved +0.7% on average on the day and was 0.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 12 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedAirlines carry heavy debt and sell discretionary travel; hotter inflation hurts both.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day -1.9% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later -0.9% · Rose on 10 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, RJET moved -1.9% on average on the day and was 0.9% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Customer momentumSep 18, 2026
Customer momentumBOTTOM
-10.6%
The dependency-weighted trailing return of the customers this company discloses a revenue dependence on. Their tape leads its orders.
Lead-lag gapBEHIND CUSTOMERS
-1.8%
This company's own move less its customers' weighted move. A wide gap in either direction usually closes.
Disclosed customer dependencies
CustomerRevenue weightWindow returnLast filed
UAL48.0%-13.1%2025-07-11
AAL45.0%-7.9%2025-07-11
Weights are as disclosed in the filings, so they describe the last reported period rather than today. Historical, point-in-time backtest of a cross-sectional screen (135 months, 2013-2026), gross of trading costs. The equal-weighted base effect is marginal (t 1.84); statistical significance relies on the dependency weighting (t 2.02). Validated on monthly rebalancing; served daily on the same 21-bar horizon. This is a research screen describing a group-level historical spread - not a forecast of any individual stock's return.
Connections5 links · 2 confirmed
Direct connections · 5 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
UAL · Suppliersupplier+0.99%Confirmed · manual
AAL · Suppliersupplier+0.15%Confirmed · manual
CAT · Suppliersupplier+1.30%Rumored · manual
BA · Customercustomer+0.61%Rumored · manual
HON · Competitorcompetitor-0.01%Rumored · manual
2 of 5 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.