Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) — Airlines. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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LUV fair-value estimate

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Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 12:57 PM ETVol 2.16M · 3-mo avg 5.38M

Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)

LUVSouthwest Airlines Co.loading…
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QTick signal
+5net
4 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 6 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · GreyPCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$40.14
basis · s1 · as of 2026-09-17
Target exit zone
$42.92
center $42.92 · basis · round + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$2.84
6.9% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 6% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
1.04× the norm · 69% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 6% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.59×
52-week range$29.26 – $55.11
Below high since 2015-38.2% · $65.28 high
Risk / reward0.58 : 1
Plan stop$37.76
Max pain$40.00 options cluster
RSI 1448.0 fires under 35 · fires near $39.03
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple8.8× fwd · 25.7× trailing
P/E vs its own past10th pctile · 35.9× median
Free cash flow yield-4.1% · burning cash

Trading heavier than its own normal, price up 1.7%. Over the last 20 sessions, 37% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
48.0
fires under 35 · fires near $39.03
vs 50-day
$43.43
below the line
Bollinger
$37.71
no lower pierce · fires near $37.48
VWAP 20
$39.44
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $39.42
Entry level
$40.14
level below · fires near $40.52
Put wall
$40.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-14
MACD
Context
+0.46
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.59×
heavier than its own normal
Short int.Static
5.8%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.19
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-10-21
in 23 sessions
Next dividend
1.75% yld
no ex-date on file
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