United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) — Airlines. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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UAL fair-value estimate

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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 628.3K · 3-mo avg 4.25M

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)

UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+4net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 7 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressPCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 32/100 · as of 2026-09-17
Smart entry
$107.10
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-17
Target exit zone
$108–110
center $109.18 · basis · daily pivot + round + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$7.97
7.4% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 8% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
1.04× the norm · 69% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 8% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.92×
52-week range$84.64 – $138.77
Below high since 2015-22.4% · $138.77 high
Risk / reward0.15 : 1
Plan stop$99.00
Max pain$107.00 options cluster
RSI 1441.7 fires under 35 · fires near $103.54
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple7.4× fwd · 10.2× trailing
P/E vs its own past69th pctile · 8.6× median
Free cash flow yield7.2% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 59% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
41.7
fires under 35 · fires near $103.54
vs 50-day
$117.58
below the line
Bollinger
$103.45
no lower pierce · fires near $102.38
VWAP 20
$109.72
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$107.10
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$100.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-16
MACD
Context
+0.03
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.92×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
5.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$3.69
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-10-21
in 24 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
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