United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) — Airlines. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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UAL fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 5.08M · 3-mo avg 4.26M

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)

UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+2net
3 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 6 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 6
$112.18
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 6
$114–117
near a heavy call-option level, a resistance level and a round-number price · midpoint $115.57 · Nov 6
±$9.31
±8.3% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
In line
82% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
Trading volume6% below normal0.94× its 20-day average
Past year's range$84.64 – $138.77lowest to highest price
From its peak18.8% belowpeak $138.77, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.21 to 1$0.21 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$99.55the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$102.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)57.8fires under 35 · fires near $87.63
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit9.6× next year10.3× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 76%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 8.8×
Cash it generates7.0%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 2.0%. Over the last 20 sessions, 43% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
57.8
fires under 35 · fires near $87.63
vs 50-day
●
$107.33
above the line · fires near $108.26
Bollinger
●
$93.08
no lower pierce · fires near $91.63
VWAP 20
●
$103.99
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $103.94
Entry level
✓
$112.18
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$100.00
2026-11-06 expiry · chain of 2026-11-04
MACD
Context✓
+1.67
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.94×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
4.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$5.82
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-01-26
in 53 sessions · session not on file
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file