American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) — Airlines. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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AALpeers & supply-chain relationships

AAL fair-value estimate

AAL earnings history

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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 12:11 PM ETVol 19.65M · 3-mo avg 96.16M

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)

AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
-2net
1 bull / 3 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 6 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressPCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 16/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$12.88
basis · s1 · as of 2026-09-17
Target exit zone
$13.97
center $13.97 · basis · bb upper + round + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$0.94
7.2% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 10% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
Low
0.77× the norm · 61% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 10% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.22×
52-week range$10.09 – $18.79
Below high since 2015-78.0% · $58.76 high
Risk / reward0.96 : 1
Plan stop$12.05
Max pain$13.00 options cluster
RSI 1439.0 fires under 35 · fires near $12.81
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple56.0× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own past77th pctile · 14.6× median
Free cash flow yield-20.8% · burning cash

Trading in line with its own normal, price up 0.7%. Over the last 20 sessions, 57% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
39.0
fires under 35 · fires near $12.81
vs 50-day
$14.50
below the line
Bollinger
$12.46
no lower pierce · fires near $12.33
VWAP 20
$13.25
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$12.88
level below · fires near $13.00
Put wall
$12.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-14
MACD
Context
+0.06
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.22×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
11.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.41
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-10-22
in 24 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file