American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) — Airlines. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 52.43M · 3-mo avg 63.74M

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)

AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
-1net
2 bull / 3 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 5 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 6
$13.11
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 6
$13–14
near the top of its usual range, a resistance level and the 200-day average · midpoint $13.47 · Nov 6
±$1.05
±8.0% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
In line
95% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
Trading volume16% below normal0.84× its 20-day average
Past year's range$10.09 – $18.79lowest to highest price
From its peak77.6% belowpeak $58.76, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.21 to 1$0.21 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$11.79the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$12.50price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)54.4fires under 35 · fires near $10.85
Accounting warning signs2worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit48.3× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 84%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 14.9×
Cash it generates-20.5%it used more cash than it made

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 1.9%. Over the last 20 sessions, 45% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
54.4
fires under 35 · fires near $10.85
vs 50-day
●
$12.88
above the line · fires near $13.00
Bollinger
●
$11.56
no lower pierce · fires near $11.39
VWAP 20
●
$12.54
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $12.54
Entry level
✓
$13.11
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context✓
+0.14
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.84×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
15.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.66
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-01-26
in 53 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file