Deep dive · NasdaqGS: PAYP
PayPay Corporation stock analysis
Everything behind the call on PayPay Corporation. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Trend and Quality are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at +2 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.19, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings, analyst moves, sentiment vote up. 3 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
quality / value vote down. 1 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Trend against Quality.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are long gamma, so their hedging absorbs moves rather than amplifying them; and the binding position cap is 3.3% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean-0.97%
ZurichPAYP0.00%⏱FrankfurtBS7-1.94%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 2 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Wall Street rating
Buy
+36% to the average target
85% buy · 15% hold · 0% sell
median target $24
median target $24
Earnings
In 41 days
30 Oct 2026 · options imply ±18.2%
cohort P(beat) 61% · n=139,757
Valuation
23.5× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield 1,104.49%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 1.86 · vol 55% ann.
worst drawdown -50%
worst drawdown -50%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does97 chars
PayPay Corporation, a digital finance platform, provides payment and financial services in Japan.
NasdaqGS · USDCloud & Infrastructure Software
$17.71-0.20 · -1.12%CLOSED · vol 967.1K
52-week range↑ 47% off low · ↓ 28.8% off high
$12.07now $17.71$24.89
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
01Ratios · Jul 7, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of -0.3 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
-0.34DISTRESS ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 7, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)STRESSED
-1.2σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
25.48%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 5/9
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills0.49×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital1.46
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$212.12B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
49th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
60 / 100
1 critical · 2 watch · 2 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ -0.34Altman-Z in the Distress · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.42M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageWATCHLTD/E 1.14long-term debt 1.14× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 5/9Piotroski F-score 5 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 2 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 19, 2026GOOD · 71/100
Business quality
31% net margin, 29% return on equity, +26% revenue growth, and capital earning 17% against a 2% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
71 / 100GOOD
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 19, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
31.3%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
87.0%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
28.7%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
29.2%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
14.9pp
Earns 17% on invested capital that costs about 2%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Revenue (TTM)+26% YoY
$367.53B
Trailing twelve-month revenue from the latest filings.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+22.0%
3 months+44.8%
6 months-12.4%
Year to date-1.4%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+25.9%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
Relative-strength rankTOP 7%
94 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsJul 30, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameTRAILING
1 of 2
Its own record against consensus. 2 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 1 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Next reportIN 41 DAYS
30 Oct 2026
Reports amc · revenue 115.2 B
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 19, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.1%1,125,547
21d47%-0.2%529,218
63d48%-0.9%169,468
slope +0.16 over 40 bars
Shooting star · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.2%163,894
21d51%+0.2%77,129
63d50%+0.1%24,635
long upper shadow, small body at bottom
Inverse head and shoulders · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%491,675
21d50%0.0%231,291
63d51%+0.1%73,497
low below two ≈-equal shoulders — bullish reversal
0323.5× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $17.71, 23.5× forward earnings, RSI 60, and dealers long gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Momentum (RSI-14)
60WARM
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
The setup right now
Price · 131 sessions2026-03-12 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Down 1.12% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.5%
$0.80
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.10
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position70% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$17.00
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$16.58
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Pivots (classic)R1 $18 · S1 $17
$17.70
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
30 Oct 2026 · in 41 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 28 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 6 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.33× segment rate · n=6,771
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 88% of cases (n=6,771).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.8σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$17 – $181 support
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $17.50.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
1.70pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-313.34
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months23.5×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported15.4×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.0×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets0.0×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay2.0×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off1.7×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value1,104.49%
0 of the 7 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 18, 2026
Entryzone of S1
$17.62In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
Target52-week high
$24.89$25–$25
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$16.02risk $1.60/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
4.53:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-10.4%
short-term trend line · $15.88
To the put wall
-15.3%
heaviest put open interest · $15.00
To the call wall
-1.2%
heaviest call open interest · $17.50
To the composer's target
+40.5%
52-week high · set Sep 18, 2026 · $24.89
To the composer's stop
-9.6%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 18, 2026 · $16.02
To the 52-week high
+40.5%
highest print of the past year · $24.89
To the 52-week low
-31.8%
lowest print of the past year · $12.07
Options-implied week ±18.2%
$14.49 – $20.93
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$16.91 – $18.51
±$0.80 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $17.62 · stop $16.02 · target $24.89, a 4.53:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, far target.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 19, 2026
Signal
Long gamma — moves get absorbed.
Dealers hedge against the move, which damps volatility around the current strikes. It makes the tape quieter without saying anything about which way it goes.
Options tapeLast snapshot before the 2026-09-18 expiry · Chain · Sep 19, 2026
Max pain-15.3%
$15.00
The strike where most open options would have expired worthless on the last snapshot. That expiry has passed; the next chain read replaces it.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.34
75% calls
25% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
2.50
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $3.22
±18.2%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$17.50CALL103
$15.00PUT28
$12.50PUT7
$22.50CALL4
$20.00CALL4
$17.50PUT3
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-09-18 (expired)CallsPutsMax pain $15.00
0
$30.00
04
$22.50
04
$20.00
0103
$17.50
33
$15.00
281
$12.50
70
$7.50
1
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$24.89+40.5%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$17.50-1.2%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$15.00-15.3%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$15.88-10.4%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$15.00-15.3%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 4%, short interest is 1.37% of float, and 10 analysts average $24.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+2BALANCED · 30d
3 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
+1
1 analyst upgrade in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+2
latest EPS beat by 3%
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
Altman-Z in the distress zone
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (77/100)
Signal
3 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 18, 2026
Signal
3 of 4 families lean up.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.19 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street10 covering firms
Consensus rating10 ANALYSTS
Buy
85% buy · 15% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 10 covering firms.
Median price target+36%
$24
$17now $18$32
A $17–$32 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$160.24
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Wolfe Research$21↑53/100
Mizuho$23↓49/100
Citigroup$18↓52/100
Morgan Stanley$23↑50/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
4.4%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
100.1%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
1.37%
Falling — shares short changed -7.1% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float35% OF SHARES
238.23M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)69th PCTILE
$17.08M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Takasu Fumiya · DirectorFilingnot on file—29 Jun
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
-1.12%
PAYP fell −1.12% since the last close — no identified catalyst in our coverage.
News tone · 7-day—
77 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 49 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
Wed(PAYP.O) | Stock Price & Latest News - ReutersReutersnot scored
Sep 10PayPay (NASDAQ:PAYP) Trading Up 4.6% - Should You Buy? - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
Sep 10PayPay Jumps As BlueCrest Bets On Fintech - TipRanksTipRanksnot scored
Sep 10BlueCrest Capital Management Ltd Makes New Investment in PayPay Corporation $PAYP - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
Sep 10PayPay Corporation (PAYP): Post 180 Day: IPO Honeymoon Over, But Fundamentals Are Starting to Shine - SmartkarmaSmartkarmanot scored
Sep 8613,638,240 Common Shares of PayPay Corporation are subject to a Lock-Up Agreement Ending on 8-SEP-2026. - marketscreener.commarketscreener.comnot scored
Sep 812,436,600 Options of PayPay Corporation are subject to a Lock-Up Agreement Ending on 8-SEP-2026. - marketscreener.commarketscreener.comnot scored
Sep 4PayPay: Inorganic Moves To Capture Structural Tailwinds (NASDAQ:PAYP) - Seeking AlphaSeeking Alphanot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0510 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.86, 55% annual volatility, a -50% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-49.6%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
1.86
Moves about 1.9× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
55%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure51
Overheat12
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
MedQuality / valueAltman-Z in the distress zoneTTM · -2
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.3%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.3% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
10.7%1.3× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 1.3× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 44.3% · tail cap 3.3% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.4% is the number (n=25,762). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 7.8% against a 8.7% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.44% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -50%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 55% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 1.86 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 41 days, and the chain prices ±18.2% for the week.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
22 logged
22 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on PAYPTHIS NAME
22
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksCLOUD & INFRASTRUCTURE SOFTWARE
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Next macro catalyst
Consumer SentimentIN 6 DAYS
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
MSFTPeer$493.78-0.80%
ORCLPeer$147.61-1.98%
PLTRPeer$177.64+0.79%
PANWPeer$363.58-3.06%
CRWDPeer$237.65-3.28%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2026-03-12
Signal
1 of 2 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Events · what moves this stockSep 13, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Rising joblessness pushes the Fed toward lower rates, which lifts growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later -0.6% · Two weeks later -0.9% · Rose on 10 of 24 report days
Across the last 24 Initial jobless claims reports since Mar 19, 2026, PAYP moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.9% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 11 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedHotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later -1.2% · Two weeks later -4.1% · Rose on 3 of 5 report days
Only 5 reports on file, so treat this as a sketch, not a pattern. Across the last 5 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Mar 31, 2026, PAYP moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 4.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.6% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -0.4% · A week later -1.2% · Two weeks later +1.9% · Rose on 2 of 5 report days
Only 5 reports on file, so treat this as a sketch, not a pattern. Across the last 5 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Apr 12, 2026, PAYP moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 1.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Higher rates for longer hit tech hardest, because so much of its value is profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -1.3% · A week later -6.1% · Two weeks later -7.0% · Rose on 2 of 5 report days
Only 5 reports on file, so treat this as a sketch, not a pattern. Across the last 5 FOMC decision reports since Mar 31, 2026, PAYP moved -1.3% on average on the day and was 7.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.8% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -0.4% · A week later -1.2% · Two weeks later +1.9% · Rose on 2 of 5 report days
Only 5 reports on file, so treat this as a sketch, not a pattern. Across the last 5 Inflation (CPI) reports since Apr 12, 2026, PAYP moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 1.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 11 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedHotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later -1.2% · Two weeks later -4.1% · Rose on 3 of 5 report days
Only 5 reports on file, so treat this as a sketch, not a pattern. Across the last 5 PCE inflation reports since Mar 31, 2026, PAYP moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 4.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.6% on those days.
Bank of Japan decisionUsually hurts when the Bank of Japan sounds more hawkish than expected
Investors who borrowed cheap yen to buy US tech stocks sell them first when Japan raises rates.
Typical for the Technology sector
No price history on file yet for PAYP around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Export-control or entity-list actionUsually hurts when export controls are tightened
Chip and equipment makers lose sales to the restricted country.
Typical for the Technology sector
No price history on file yet for PAYP around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
9984.T · Partnerpartnernot pricedRumored · manual
V · Partnerpartner-0.44%Rumored · manual
LINE · Competitorcompetitor-2.98%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.