Deep dive · NMS: MSTR
Strategy Inc stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Strategy Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Trend and Risk are pulling against each other and the split is genuine rather than a formality. The net lands at 0 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.41.
Leans up · and why
analyst moves, earnings, sentiment vote up. 3 of 6 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
quality / value, insider flow vote down. 3 of 6 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Trend against Risk.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are short gamma, so swings get bigger both ways; separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −13.7%.
Global tape
FrankfurtMIGA—⏱ZurichMSTR—⏱StockholmMSTR—⏱MéxicoMSTR*—⏱London0A7O—⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-11-06
Wall Street rating
Buy
+81% to the average target
94% buy · 6% hold · 0% sell
mean target $233
mean target $233
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $144.43 · -10.7%
200-day $133.74 · -3.6%
200-day $133.74 · -3.6%
Earnings
In 88 days
4 Feb 2027 · options imply ±12.6%
beat ≤2 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=21,200
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=21,200
Valuation
7.5× forward
Against consensus earnings
5yr median 23×
FCF yield -41.37%
FCF yield -41.37%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 3 clear
beta 3.04 · vol 76% ann.
worst drawdown -66%
worst drawdown -66%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does160 chars
Strategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally.
NMS · USDApplication Software
$128.93-0.37 · -0.29%CLOSED · vol 13.82M
52-week range↑ 58% off low · ↓ 48.4% off high
$81.81now $128.93$249.96
Quote Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
01Ratios · Jul 5, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 1.8 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 3 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
1.79DISTRESS ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 5, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)THIN
2.4σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.83%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreCRITICAL
F 3/9
Piotroski F-score 3 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills5.62×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.16
Leverage · long-term debt / total assetsthe share of everything the company owns that long-term borrowing funds0.13
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$5.93B
Free cash flow · TTMcash left after running and reinvesting in the business$-17.37B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
96th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldISSUING
-29.73%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.00%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueELEVATED
11.2%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
70 / 100
1 critical · 1 watch · 3 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 3.00Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.49M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.16long-term debt 0.16× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCRITICALF 3/9Piotroski F-score 3 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 3 clear and 1 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Nov 8, 2026POOR · 32/100
Business quality
-806% net margin, -8% return on equity, +3% revenue growth, and capital earning 0% against a 15% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
32 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Nov 8, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-806.3%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
68.7%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
-8.6%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-7.5%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-15.1pp
Earns 0% on invested capital that costs about 15%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
-0.1%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-14.9%
3 months+32.5%
6 months-31.3%
Year to date-15.1%
1 year-49.4%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+3.0%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-40.6%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 5%
95 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsOct 29, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
39%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT ≤2 OF THE LAST 8
2 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
43%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
39%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±5.2%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Nov 6, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,308,676
21d47%0.0%613,759
63d47%-0.9%195,225
slope -0.12 over 40 bars
Spinning top
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%-0.1%200,974
21d49%-0.2%94,842
63d49%-0.1%30,228
small body, shadows both sides
Falling wedge · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%444,814
21d50%0.0%208,795
63d50%0.0%66,621
falling & converging — bullish
037.5× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $128.93, 7.5× forward earnings, RSI 41, and dealers short gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $144.43 · 200-day $133.74. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-11-04 → 2026-11-06
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Down 0.29% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
41
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±7.6%
$9.75
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-1.71
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position10% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$140.81
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$129.16
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
4 Feb 2027 · in 88 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number.
2026-11-10 · in 2 daysInflation (CPI)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
38 / 61cohort n=487
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.05× segment rate · n=287
Historically, crypto names in this tape state saw a ≥20% pullback within 63 trading days in 91% of cases (n=287).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.6σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$118 – $1282 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $126.13, Pivot low at $123.33.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
46 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 3 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 61% of cases (n=487) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-19.02
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months7.5×5yr median 23×
Trailing P/EThe company lost money over the trailing year, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit114.4×5yr median 53.1×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.1×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value-41.37%
2 of the 4 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. 1 is marked not meaningful because the figure it divides into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingNov 6, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1 + put wall
$128.29In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetCall wall + daily pivot + sma 200
$134.32$132–$137
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$108.79risk $19.49/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.31:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+12.0%
short-term trend line · $144.43
To the 200-day
+3.7%
primary trend line · $133.74
To the put wall
-3.0%
heaviest put open interest · $125.00
To the call wall
+4.7%
heaviest call open interest · $135.00
To the composer's target
+4.2%
Call wall + daily pivot + sma 200 · set Nov 6, 2026 · $134.32
To the composer's stop
-15.6%
2× ATR below entry · set Nov 6, 2026 · $108.79
To the 52-week high
+93.9%
highest print of the past year · $249.96
To the 52-week low
-36.5%
lowest print of the past year · $81.81
Options-implied week ±12.6%
$112.65 – $145.21
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$119.18 – $138.68
±$9.75 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $128.29 · stop $108.79 · target $134.32, a 0.31:1 ratio. The composer flagged: elevated distress, gamma ceiling, low reward to risk, target inside one week's move.
Gamma mapChain · Nov 8, 2026
Signal
Short gamma — moves get amplified.
Dealers hedge in the same direction as the move, so swings get bigger both ways rather than one. That argues for a smaller position size, not for a direction.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-11-13 · Chain · Nov 8, 2026
Max pain+10.1%
$142.00
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)PUT-HEAVY
1.78
36% calls
64% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.41
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $16.28
±12.6%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$135.00CALL6,301
$125.00PUT3,204
$130.00PUT1,507
$135.00PUT1,484
$128.00PUT740
$123.00PUT706
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-11-13CallsPutsMax pain $142.00
308
$136.00
4486k
$135.00
1k212
$134.00
300132
$133.00
440392
$132.00
293277
$131.00
168407
$130.00
2k121
$129.00
421116
$128.00
74088
$127.00
16085
$126.00
193172
$125.00
3k65
$124.00
3420
$123.00
70645
$122.00
49531
$121.00
141
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$249.96+93.9%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$135.00+4.7%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$142.00+10.1%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$144.43+12.0%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$125.00-3.0%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 55%, short interest is 7.24% of float, and 12 analysts average $233.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
0BALANCED · 30d
3 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
+1
8 price-target raises in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+1
latest EPS beat by 96%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($3,143,521 across 28 sells) in 120d
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
weak Piotroski F-score (3/9)
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (80/100)
Signal
3 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to 0 over 30d, a balanced reading. 5 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readNov 8, 2026
Signal
The evidence families are split down the middle.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.41 means the disagreement is a genuine split.
Wall Street12 covering firms
Consensus rating12 ANALYSTS
Buy
94% buy · 6% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 12 covering firms.
Mean price target+81%
$233
$165now $129$435
A $165–$435 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$18.82
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
B. Riley Securities$180↓48/100
BTIG$250→54/100
Cantor Fitzgerald$208↑46/100
Barclays$175↑51/100
Citigroup$240↑51/100
B. Riley Securities$195↑48/100
Barclays$160↑51/100
Canaccord Genuity$179↑56/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
54.9%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.2%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
7.24%
Falling — shares short changed -5.3% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float100% OF SHARES
401.74M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)100th PCTILE
$2.91B/day
At this depth, position size is not a constraint for a retail account.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Patten Jarrod M · DirectorOption exercise$86,621—04 Nov
Patten Jarrod M · DirectorSell$133,950—04 Nov
Patten Jarrod M · DirectorSell$132,050—04 Nov
Patten Jarrod M · DirectorSell$130,150—04 Nov
Patten Jarrod M · DirectorSell$137,750—04 Nov
Patten Jarrod M · DirectorSell$135,850—04 Nov
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
-0.29%
MSTR was little changed −0.29% since the last close — no notable catalyst, and the move itself was modest.
News tone · 7-day—
80 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 50 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
ThuStrategy (MSTR) CFO Exit Looms, Does The Stock Look Fully Valued? - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
ThuHow Long Will Strategy’s Cash Last? - TrefisTrefisnot scored
WedMSTR Stock Price Outlook as Strategy Raises $21B, Emerges 4th-Largest US Equity Issuer – Bullish or Bearish? - Cryptonews.netCryptonews.netnot scored
WedMichael Saylor Keeps Buying Bitcoin While ETF Investors Sell. Strategy Added 811 Coins While BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Saw $405.3 Million Pulled Out In A Single Day - 24/7 Wall St.24/7 Wall St.not scored
WedHow to Play MSTR Stock as the CFO Leaves MicroStrategy - Barchart.comBarchart.comnot scored
WedStrategy (MSTR) Q3 Earnings Ride Bitcoin Windfall As Funding Risks Linger - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
TueMSTR Stock Jumps 5% as Strategy Begins Daily STRC Dividends at 12% Annual Rate - Cryptonews.netCryptonews.netnot scored
TueStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet Just Produced a Monster Quarter. Here’s the Bigger Question. - 24/7 Wall St.24/7 Wall St.not scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Evenly split.
3 of 6 disclosures are buys and 3 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0517 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 3.04, 76% annual volatility, a -66% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−13.7%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−18.0%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.1×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownIT CAN HALVE
-66.0%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
3.04
Moves about 3.0× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
76%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure52
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
MedQuality / valueweak Piotroski F-score (3/9)TTM · -2
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($3,143,521 across 28 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company typeRouted as: Crypto-equity
Signal
Routed as Crypto-equity.
Failure modes are routed by company type, and the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are the validated ones. This name routes as Crypto-equity, so the 3 checks above are that cohort's, not a generic list.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Avoid score6-month distress
36.4%3.9× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 3.9× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
LowPosition sizeThe sizing model has not covered this name, so no defensible cap is published for it.Not scored
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighCash runwayAbout 0.6 quarters of cash at current burn ($2.5B cash against $17.4B a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 28.6% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.44% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighRestatement history1 restatement in 2 years. The flagged-company base rate is 6.2× the unflagged one.Integrity
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -66%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 76% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 3.04 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
Our track record17 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
48 logged
48 calls logged on this name, 17 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
0610-K disclosed linksAPPLICATION SOFTWARE
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 2 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+4.5% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
SAPGFPeer$232.45-3.32%
SAPPeer$233.45-4.14%
SHOPPeer$148.91+3.59%
CRMPeer$213.65-3.94%
UBERPeer$68.59-0.28%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
2 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Inflation (CPI) reactionn=40
1.08×
On these days it moves about 1.1× the market, regardless of company news.
Jobs report reactionn=42
0.78×
On these days it moves about 0.8× the market, regardless of company news.
Fed decision (FOMC) reactionn=41
0.95×
On these days it moves about 1.0× the market, regardless of company news.
Inflation (PCE) reactionn=41
1.02×
On these days it moves about 1.0× the market, regardless of company news.
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Inflation (CPI)
2026-11-10. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockNov 8, 2026
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Software companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +6.4% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, MSTR moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 6.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI) is due in 2 days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedSoftware companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day +1.3% · A week later +3.6% · Two weeks later +3.4% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, MSTR moved +1.3% on average on the day and was 3.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Software profits are mostly far in the future and worth less at higher rates.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day +0.6% · A week later +2.0% · Two weeks later +5.0% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, MSTR moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 5.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Inflation (CPI) is due in 2 days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedSoftware companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day +1.3% · A week later +3.6% · Two weeks later +3.4% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, MSTR moved +1.3% on average on the day and was 3.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Software companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +6.4% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, MSTR moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 6.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Rising joblessness pushes the Fed toward lower rates, which lifts growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -0.4% · A week later +1.0% · Two weeks later +3.1% · Rose on 73 of 173 report days
Across the last 173 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, MSTR moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 3.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI) is due in 5 days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expectedSoftware companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day +1.2% · A week later +3.0% · Two weeks later +2.7% · Rose on 22 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, MSTR moved +1.2% on average on the day and was 2.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expected
Strong hiring tells the Fed it can keep rates high, which weighs on growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +3.9% · Two weeks later +5.4% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, MSTR moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 5.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections2 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 2 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
COIN · Suppliersupplier-1.51%Rumored · manual
COIN · Suppliersupplier-1.51%Rumored · manual
0 of 2 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
What it depends on
COINSuppliersupplier
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.