Strategy Inc (MSTR) — Application Software. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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MSTR fair-value estimate

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Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 54.15M · 3-mo avg 23.36M

Strategy Inc (MSTR)

MSTRStrategy Incloading…
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QTick signal
-6net
1 bull / 4 bear factors · moderate
Bull 1 pts·Bear 7 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressPCE inflation days · not on fileOKHeavy buying · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$146.93
basis · s1 + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-18
Target exit zone
$363–368
center $365.21 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-09-18
Implied move · 1 wk
±$13.34
8.7% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Pullback risk
In line
1.00× the norm · 83% saw a ≥20% dip · 63d · tape state: hot buying
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.96×
52-week range$81.81 – $365.21
Below high since 2015-71.7% · $543.00 high
Risk / reward7.26 : 1
Plan stop$124.82
Max pain$130.00 options cluster
RSI 1466.1 fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple2.7× fwd · trailing n.m.
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield-42.4% · burning cash

Last session traded heavier than its own normal, price up 16.4%. Over the last 20 sessions, 38% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

Bearish tape — sell
RSI 14
66.1
fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
vs 50-day
$110.82
above the line · fires below the slider range
Bollinger
$114.96
no lower pierce · fires near $114.84
VWAP 20
$131.70
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $131.52
Entry level
$146.93
level below · fires near $148.20
Put wall
$120.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-14
MACD
Context
+0.20
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.96×
heavier than its own normal
Short int.Static
9.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$9.73
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-10-29
in 30 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file