Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) — Metal Fabrication. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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MLI fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 1.29M · 3-mo avg 1.60M

Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI)

MLIMueller Industries, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+1net
1 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 2 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 20/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$60.22
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$61.92
center $61.92 · basis · round + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$3.30
5.5% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 5% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
1.04× the norm · 69% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 5% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.69×
52-week range$48.27 – $71.12
Below high since 2015-56.6% · $139.29 high
Risk / reward0.45 : 1
Plan stop$57.37
Max pain$60.00 options cluster
RSI 1443.4 fires under 35 · fires near $58.74
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple13.7× fwd · 15.6× trailing
P/E vs its own past77th pctile · 10.1× median
Free cash flow yield5.2% · of market value

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price up 0.8%. Over the last 20 sessions, 66% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
43.4
fires under 35 · fires near $58.74
vs 50-day
✓
$63.42
below the line
Bollinger
●
$58.51
no lower pierce · fires near $58.05
VWAP 20
✓
$60.85
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$60.22
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$55.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-24
MACD
Context●
-0.11
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.69×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
2.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.42
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-20
in 18 sessions
Next dividend
1.16% yld
no ex-date on file
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