ATI Inc. (ATI) — Metal Fabrication. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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ATI fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 9, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.62M · 3-mo avg 1.72M

ATI Inc. (ATI)

ATIATI Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+3net
3 bull / 3 bear factors · leaning
Bull 6 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 3/100 · Nov 9
$183.93
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 9
$240–247
near the 52-week high · midpoint $243.57 · Nov 9
±$0.11
±0.1% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
In line
82% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume4% below normal0.96× its 20-day average
Past year's range$93.11 – $243.57lowest to highest price
From its peak24.1% belowpeak $243.57, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk1.91 to 1$1.91 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$154.09the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$90.00far from the price, likely stale options data
Momentum (RSI)53.8fires under 35 · fires near $149.27
Accounting warning signs2worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit28.2× next year46.2× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 64%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 30.2×
Cash it generates1.3%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 5.2%. Over the last 20 sessions, 51% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
53.8
fires under 35 · fires near $149.27
vs 50-day
✓
$186.32
at the line
Bollinger
●
$156.01
no lower pierce · fires near $152.27
VWAP 20
●
$173.41
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $173.30
Entry level
✓
$183.93
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$230.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-09
MACD
Context✓
+1.02
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.96×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
3.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$13.40
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-02
in 57 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file