Deep dive · NYSE: LTM
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on LATAM Airlines Group S.A. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tapeOverseas lean+0.41%
FrankfurtLFL0+0.41%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 1 overseas venue listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Wall Street rating
Buy
+45% to the average target
100% buy · 0% hold · 0% sell
median target $74
median target $74
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $52.44 · -2.5%
200-day $53.44 · -4.3%
200-day $53.44 · -4.3%
Earnings
In 62 days
19 Nov 2026 · options imply ±7.0%
beat 7–8 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 80% · n=35,425
cohort P(beat) 80% · n=35,425
Valuation
7.9× forward
3rd of its own five-year range
5yr median 13×
FCF yield 12.46%
FCF yield 12.46%
Dividend
2.99%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 0 clear
beta 1.73 · vol 33% ann.
worst drawdown -34%
worst drawdown -34%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does256 chars
LATAM Airlines Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services in Chile, Argentina, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil, the United States, other Latin American countries, the Caribbean, Europe, and Oceania.
NYSE · USDAirlines
$51.15-0.20 · -0.39%AH · vol 614.0K
52-week range↑ 24% off low · ↓ 27.4% off high
$41.41now $51.15$70.42
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · 10:04 AM ET
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
01Ratios · Jun 22, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 1.8 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 0 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
1.79DISTRESS ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 22, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
5.5σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.21%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 4/7
Piotroski F-score 4 of 7. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills0.60×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital6.01
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$5.94B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
100th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE F
38 / 100
1 critical · 3 watch · 0 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 1.81Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageCRITICALLTD/E 2.57long-term debt 2.57× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/7Piotroski F-score 4 of 7 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 3 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026GOOD · 62/100
Business quality
10% net margin, 109% return on equity, +11% revenue growth, and capital earning 32% against a 11% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
62 / 100GOOD
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
10.2%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
29.2%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
16.4%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
108.5%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
21.2pp
Earns 32% on invested capital that costs about 11%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
141.4%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-0.1%
3 months-8.1%
6 months+4.1%
Year to date-5.9%
1 year+6.2%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+11.2%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+53.3%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+4.8%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 39%
39 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 4, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
80%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 7–8 OF THE LAST 8
8 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
25%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missData unavailableNo misses in the measured window, so there is no denominator to compute this over. Shown as absent rather than as 0%.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±3.1%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
2.99%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
>2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 18, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,473,236
21d49%0.0%691,862
63d51%+0.2%218,831
slope -0.05 over 40 bars
Evening star · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%144,380
21d50%0.0%67,527
63d50%0.0%21,412
3-bar top reversal
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,242,409
21d50%0.0%584,002
63d51%+0.2%184,289
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%961,327
21d50%+0.1%451,185
63d52%+0.3%141,927
three troughs ≈ equal
Near support · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%533,688
21d53%+0.2%250,417
63d54%+0.4%78,400
testing recent support
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%757,951
21d45%0.0%355,725
63d47%0.0%112,112
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
033RD OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $51.15, 7.9× forward earnings, RSI 48, and dealers short gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $52.44 · 200-day $53.44. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-13 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Down 0.39% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
48
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±2.7%
$1.37
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.02
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position45% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$51.47
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$50.71
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
19 Nov 2026 · in 62 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 6 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.04× segment rate · n=6,164
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 69% of cases (n=6,164).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.0σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$49 – $513 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $50.83, Pivot low at $50.19, Pivot low at $49.26.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
19 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
5.63pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-0.01
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months7.9×5yr median 13×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported9.4×3rd of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth0.40
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit1.0×5yr median 1.0×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets11.1×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay9.3×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off11.2×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value12.46%
1 of the 8 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 17, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$51.09In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetRound + sma 50 + vwap 50
$52.64$52–$53
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
StopTucked under the entry zone
$48.24risk $2.86/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.54:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+2.5%
short-term trend line · $52.44
To the 200-day
+4.5%
primary trend line · $53.44
To the put wall
-2.2%
heaviest put open interest · $50.00
To the call wall
+17.3%
heaviest call open interest · $60.00
To the composer's target
+2.9%
Round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 17, 2026 · $52.64
To the composer's stop
-5.7%
Tucked under the entry zone · set Sep 17, 2026 · $48.24
To the 52-week high
+37.7%
highest print of the past year · $70.42
To the 52-week low
-19.0%
lowest print of the past year · $41.41
Options-implied week ±7.0%
$47.59 – $54.71
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$49.78 – $52.52
±$1.37 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $51.09 · stop $48.24 · target $52.64, a 0.54:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 18, 2026
Signal
Short gamma — moves get amplified.
Dealers hedge in the same direction as the move, so swings get bigger both ways rather than one. That argues for a smaller position size, not for a direction.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-09-18 · Chain · Sep 18, 2026
Max pain-2.6%
$50.00
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.47
68% calls
32% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
1.13
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $3.57
±7.0%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$60.00CALL430
$50.00CALL283
$50.00PUT280
$70.00CALL277
$45.00PUT264
$65.00CALL215
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-09-18CallsPutsMax pain $50.00
3
$85.00
010
$80.00
021
$75.00
0277
$70.00
0215
$65.00
0430
$60.00
0124
$55.00
97283
$50.00
28012
$45.00
26416
$40.00
1211
$35.00
00
$30.00
0
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$70.42+37.1%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$60.00+16.8%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$50.00-2.6%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$52.44+2.1%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$50.00-2.6%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +4
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 9%, short interest is 1.05% of float, and 5 analysts average $74.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+4LEANING · 30d
2 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+3
latest EPS beat by 20%
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (74/100)
Signal
2 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +4 over 30d, a leaning reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street5 covering firms
Consensus rating5 ANALYSTS
Buy
100% buy · 0% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 5 covering firms.
Median price target+45%
$74
$69now $51$80
A $69–$80 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$6.40
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
9.4%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
1.05%
Falling — shares short changed -45.5% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float61% OF SHARES
176.13M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)77th PCTILE
$39.71M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
-0.39%
LTM was little changed −0.39% in after-hours trading — no notable catalyst, and the move itself was modest.
News tone · 7-day+1
75 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 48 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
ThuPrecision Trading with LTM Inc (LTM) Risk Zones - news.stocktradersdaily.comnews.stocktradersdaily.comnot scored
ThuTCS, Infosys, HCL Tech, Wipro, LTM, FSol, Birlasoft, Coforge: Fresh target prices for top IT stocks - Business TodayBusiness Todaynot scored
ThuLTM Wins Avasant Digital Masters Award 2026: Shares Rise 0.4% - HDFC SkyHDFC Skynot scored
ThuLTM wins Avasant Digital Masters Award 2026 for innovation - scanx.tradescanx.tradenot scored
WedPersistent vs LTM: CLSA picks top IT stock as AI coding pressure rises - IndiaIPOIndiaIPOnot scored
WedTCS, Infy, HCL Tech, TechM, LTM, Coforge, Mphasis: Check fresh price targets for these IT stocks - businesstoday.inbusinesstoday.innot scored
TueWhy are IT stocks on fire? Check TCS, HCL Tech, LTM, Tech Mahindra, Infosys share performance - TradingViewTradingViewnot scored
MonLATAM Airlines stock falls despite $505M financing deal By Investing.com - Investing.com CanadaInvesting.com Canadanot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
055 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.73, 33% annual volatility, a -34% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−6.8%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−9.5%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.2×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-33.9%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
1.73
Moves about 1.7× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
33%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure5
Buying pressure7
Overheat5
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
3.7%0.5× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 0.5× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 53.5% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.3% is the number (n=15,197). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 3.9% against a 8.7% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.44% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -34%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 33% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You're already heavy in this market
A 1.73 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
Our track record5 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
16 logged
16 calls logged on this name, 5 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on LTMTHIS NAME
16
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 5.
0610-K disclosed linksAIRLINES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 4 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-55.9% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
DALPartner$79.62+0.24%
UALPeer$108.71+0.99%
RYAAYPeer$53.51+0.02%
RYAOFPeer$29.57-22.18%
LUVPeer$40.98+1.59%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2024-07-25
Signal
2 of 3 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 12, 2026
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +1.9% · Two weeks later +2.3% · Rose on 13 of 25 report days
Across the last 25 Industrial production reports since Aug 15, 2024, LTM moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 2.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
GDP (advance estimate)Usually helps when the economy grows faster than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +4.5% · Two weeks later +2.7% · Rose on 4 of 8 report days
Across the last 8 GDP (advance estimate) reports since Oct 27, 2024, LTM moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 2.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Leisure travel drops with employment.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.9% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 54 of 108 report days
Across the last 108 Initial jobless claims reports since Aug 1, 2024, LTM moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Building products and equipment makers.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +0.7% · Rose on 9 of 25 report days
Across the last 25 Housing starts reports since Aug 20, 2024, LTM moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 11 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expectedLeisure travel follows employment and pay.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.3% · Two weeks later +2.5% · Rose on 14 of 25 report days
Across the last 25 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Aug 5, 2024, LTM moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 2.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 14 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expectedLeisure travel follows employment and pay.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day +0.5% · A week later +1.3% · Two weeks later +3.2% · Rose on 14 of 25 report days
Across the last 25 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Aug 5, 2024, LTM moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 3.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.3% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expected
Airlines carry heavy debt and sell discretionary travel; hotter inflation hurts both.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day +0.2% · A week later +2.0% · Two weeks later +3.1% · Rose on 13 of 25 report days
Across the last 25 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Aug 12, 2024, LTM moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 3.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
Goods have to be made and shipped before they are sold.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +1.9% · Two weeks later +2.3% · Rose on 13 of 25 report days
Across the last 25 Retail sales reports since Aug 15, 2024, LTM moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 2.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections4 links · 2 confirmed
Direct connections · 4 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
AIR · Suppliersupplier+0.58%Rumored · manual
DAL · Partnerpartner+0.24%Rumored · manual
BA · Suppliersupplier+0.61%Confirmed · manual
CPA · Competitorcompetitor+0.52%Confirmed · manual
2 of 4 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.