Deep dive · NYSE: LTM
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on LATAM Airlines Group S.A. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
3 factors lean up and 0 lean down and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at +6 over 30d, a moderate reading, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings, quality / value, sentiment vote up.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are short gamma, so swings get bigger both ways; separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −10.1%; and the binding position cap is 3.2% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean+0.41%
FrankfurtLFL0+0.41%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 1 overseas venue listed above with a quote, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-11-06
Wall Street rating
Buy
+53% to the average target
100% buy · 0% hold · 0% sell
mean target $73
mean target $73
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $49.20 · -3.1%
200-day $52.35 · -8.9%
200-day $52.35 · -8.9%
Earnings
In 87 days
3 Feb 2027 · options imply ±9.2%
beat 7–8 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 80% · n=36,342
cohort P(beat) 80% · n=36,342
Valuation
6.8× forward
4th of its own five-year range
5yr median 13×
FCF yield 13.66%
FCF yield 13.66%
Dividend
3.21%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 0 clear
beta 1.70 · vol 50% ann.
worst drawdown -38%
worst drawdown -38%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does256 chars
LATAM Airlines Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services in Chile, Argentina, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil, the United States, other Latin American countries, the Caribbean, Europe, and Oceania.
NYSE · USDAirlines
$47.67+0.60 · +1.27%CLOSED · vol 1.24M
52-week range↑ 15% off low · ↓ 32.3% off high
$41.44now $47.67$70.42
Quote Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
01Ratios · Jun 22, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 1.8 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 0 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
1.79DISTRESS ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 22, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
5.3σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.21%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 4/7
Piotroski F-score 4 of 7. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills0.60×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital6.01
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$5.94B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
100th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE F
38 / 100
1 critical · 3 watch · 0 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 1.81Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageCRITICALLTD/E 2.57long-term debt 2.57× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/7Piotroski F-score 4 of 7 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 3 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Nov 8, 2026GOOD · 62/100
Business quality
10% net margin, 109% return on equity, +11% revenue growth, and capital earning 32% against a 11% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
62 / 100GOOD
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Nov 8, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
10.2%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
29.2%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
16.4%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
108.5%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
21.3pp
Earns 32% on invested capital that costs about 11%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
141.4%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-5.5%
3 months-11.3%
6 months-6.8%
Year to date-11.7%
1 year+7.0%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+11.2%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+53.3%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+13.5%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 44%
44 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsNov 3, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
80%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 7–8 OF THE LAST 8
8 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
22%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missData unavailableNo misses in the measured window, so there is no denominator to compute this over. Shown as absent rather than as 0%.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±3.7%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
3.21%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
>2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Nov 6, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,308,676
21d47%0.0%613,759
63d47%-0.9%195,225
slope -0.17 over 40 bars
Bullish harami · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%-0.1%134,179
21d48%-0.3%63,306
63d49%-0.2%20,229
small body inside prior bearish
Falling wedge · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%444,814
21d50%0.0%208,795
63d50%0.0%66,621
falling & converging — bullish
034TH OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $47.67, 6.8× forward earnings, RSI 52, and dealers short gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed1 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $49.20 · 200-day $52.35. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-11-04 → 2026-11-06
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Up 1.27% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
52
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.7%
$2.22
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.39
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position65% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$45.77
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$44.14
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
3 Feb 2027 · in 87 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number.
2026-11-10 · in 2 daysInflation (CPI)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.24× segment rate · n=6,389
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 82% of cases (n=6,389).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.6σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$46 – $473 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $47.38, S1 at $47.23, Pivot low at $46.91.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
9 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
7.29pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-0.01
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months6.8×5yr median 13×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported8.4×4th of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth0.49
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit1.0×5yr median 1.0×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets10.1×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay8.7×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off10.5×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value13.66%
1 of the 8 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingNov 6, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$47.43In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetDaily pivot + sma 50 + vwap 50
$48.89$48–$49
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$42.98risk $4.45/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.33:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+3.2%
short-term trend line · $49.20
To the 200-day
+9.8%
primary trend line · $52.35
To the put wall
+4.9%
heaviest put open interest · $50.00
To the call wall
+25.9%
heaviest call open interest · $60.00
To the composer's target
+2.6%
Daily pivot + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Nov 6, 2026 · $48.89
To the composer's stop
-9.8%
2× ATR below entry · set Nov 6, 2026 · $42.98
To the 52-week high
+47.7%
highest print of the past year · $70.42
To the 52-week low
-13.1%
lowest print of the past year · $41.44
Options-implied week ±9.2%
$43.27 – $52.07
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$45.45 – $49.89
±$2.22 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $47.43 · stop $42.98 · target $48.89, a 0.33:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, gamma ceiling, low reward to risk, target inside one week's move.
Gamma mapChain · Nov 8, 2026
Signal
Short gamma — moves get amplified.
Dealers hedge in the same direction as the move, so swings get bigger both ways rather than one. That argues for a smaller position size, not for a direction.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-11-20 · Chain · Nov 8, 2026
Max pain+15.4%
$55.00
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.97
51% calls
49% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.72
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $4.40
±9.2%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$60.00CALL448
$50.00PUT444
$40.00PUT357
$70.00CALL283
$65.00CALL248
$45.00PUT207
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-11-20CallsPutsMax pain $55.00
115
$80.00
020
$75.00
35283
$70.00
118248
$65.00
129448
$60.00
0108
$55.00
4570
$50.00
44421
$45.00
20734
$40.00
357105
$35.00
858
$30.00
0
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$70.42+47.7%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$60.00+25.9%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$55.00+15.4%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$49.20+3.2%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$50.00+4.9%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +6
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 10%, short interest is 2.02% of float, and 5 analysts average $73.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+6MODERATE · 30d
3 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+3
latest EPS beat by 16%
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
+2
218% upside to estimated fair value
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (92/100)
Signal
3 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +6 over 30d, a moderate reading. 3 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street5 covering firms
Consensus rating5 ANALYSTS
Buy
100% buy · 0% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 5 covering firms.
Mean price target+53%
$73
$62now $48$80
A $62–$80 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$7.03
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
9.6%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
2.02%
Rising — shares short changed +11.1% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float61% OF SHARES
176.13M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)78th PCTILE
$41.12M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
+1.27%
LTM rose +1.27% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “Life Time Fitness Inc (LTM) Stock Price, News, Earnings & Company Profile - RTTNews” (RTTNews).
News tone · 7-day—
92 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 48 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
13h agoWhat LATAM Airlines Group (LTM) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
19h agoLATAM Airlines Group S.A. 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:LTM) 2026-11-07 - Seeking AlphaSeeking Alphanot scored
Sat(LTM) Risk Channels and Responsive Allocation - Stock Traders DailyStock Traders Dailynot scored
FriLife Time Fitness Inc (LTM) Stock Price, News, Earnings & Company Profile - RTTNewsRTTNewsnot scored
FriIntellect Design Arena Q2FY27 Results: Revenue up 17% LTM to ₹3,388 crore - scanx.tradescanx.tradenot scored
FriIndian IT stocks emerge as 'safe AI trade' amid rising Big Tech spending; Anand Rathi prefers TechM, LTM, Mphasis - LivemintLivemintnot scored
FriLTM Ltd Sees Significant Open Interest Surge Amid Mixed Market Signals - MarketsMojoMarketsMojonot scored
FriLTM Ltd Sees Sharp Open Interest Surge Amid Mixed Market Signals - MarketsMojoMarketsMojonot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0514 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.70, 50% annual volatility, a -38% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−10.1%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−14.5%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.3×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-37.9%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
1.70
Moves about 1.7× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
50%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure40
Buying pressure8
Overheat2
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
5.2%0.7× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 0.6× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 53.5% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.3% is the number (n=15,197). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 8.4% against a 11.0% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -38%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 50% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You're already heavy in this market
A 1.70 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
Our track record14 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
38 logged
38 calls logged on this name, 14 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
0610-K disclosed linksAIRLINES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 4 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-55.9% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
DALPartner$87.20+2.16%
UALPeer$112.74+2.04%
RYAAYPeer$59.30+1.32%
RYAOFPeer$30.26-20.37%
LUVPeer$44.45+0.02%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2024-07-25
Signal
1 of 3 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Inflation (CPI)
2026-11-10. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockNov 7, 2026
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +1.6% · Two weeks later +1.2% · Rose on 12 of 26 report days
Across the last 26 Industrial production reports since Aug 15, 2024, LTM moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
GDP (advance estimate)Usually helps when the economy grows faster than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +4.5% · Two weeks later +2.7% · Rose on 4 of 8 report days
Across the last 8 GDP (advance estimate) reports since Oct 27, 2024, LTM moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 2.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Leisure travel drops with employment.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +1.3% · Rose on 56 of 113 report days
Across the last 113 Initial jobless claims reports since Aug 1, 2024, LTM moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Housing starts is due in 10 days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expectedBuilding products and equipment makers.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +0.6% · Rose on 11 of 27 report days
Across the last 27 Housing starts reports since Aug 20, 2024, LTM moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expected
Leisure travel follows employment and pay.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day +0.2% · A week later +1.3% · Two weeks later +2.3% · Rose on 15 of 26 report days
Across the last 26 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Aug 5, 2024, LTM moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 2.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expected
Leisure travel follows employment and pay.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day +0.5% · A week later +1.0% · Two weeks later +2.7% · Rose on 14 of 26 report days
Across the last 26 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Aug 5, 2024, LTM moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 2.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.3% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI) is due in 5 days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expectedAirlines carry heavy debt and sell discretionary travel; hotter inflation hurts both.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day +0.1% · A week later +1.8% · Two weeks later +2.4% · Rose on 13 of 26 report days
Across the last 26 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Aug 12, 2024, LTM moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 2.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Retail sales is due in 9 days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expectedGoods have to be made and shipped before they are sold.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +1.6% · Two weeks later +1.2% · Rose on 12 of 26 report days
Across the last 26 Retail sales reports since Aug 15, 2024, LTM moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections4 links · 2 confirmed
Direct connections · 4 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
AIR · Suppliersupplier+4.53%Rumored · manual
DAL · Partnerpartner+2.16%Rumored · manual
BA · Suppliersupplier+0.52%Confirmed · manual
CPA · Competitorcompetitor+0.71%Confirmed · manual
2 of 4 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.