Deep dive · NasdaqGS: LLYVA
Liberty Live Holdings, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Liberty Live Holdings, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
1 factors lean up and 3 lean down and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at -5 over 30d, a leaning reading, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
sentiment vote up.
Leans down · and why
earnings, quality / value, risk flags vote down.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are short gamma, so swings get bigger both ways; separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −5.5%; and the binding position cap is 2.9% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean0.00%
MéxicoLLYVA1*0.00%⏱ZurichLLYVA0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 2 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Wall Street rating
Buy
Across 1 covering firms
1 analysts
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $98.33 · -2.0%
200-day $92.86 · +3.7%
200-day $92.86 · +3.7%
Earnings
In 39 days
5 Nov 2026 · options imply ±7.5%
beat ≤1 of the last 4
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
Valuation
51.8× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield -0.33%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 0 clear
beta 0.56 · vol 20% ann.
worst drawdown -21%
worst drawdown -21%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NasdaqGS · USDEntertainment Content
$96.32-0.11 · -0.11%CLOSED · vol 40.4K
52-week range↑ 29% off low · ↓ 9.2% off high
$74.38now $96.32$106.06
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jun 22, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 1.7 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 0 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
1.69DISTRESS ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 22, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
6.4σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.18%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreCRITICAL
F 3/8
Piotroski F-score 3 of 8. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills0.33×healthy >2
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.88
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$1.63B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
41st pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE F
33 / 100
1 critical · 2 watch · 0 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 1.93Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageNAn/aLong-term debt / equity not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCRITICALF 3/8Piotroski F-score 3 of 8 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026POOR · 35/100
Business quality
-23% net margin, 177% return on equity, +12% revenue growth, and capital earning -3% against a 7% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
35 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-22.8%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
19.2%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
-13.5%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
177.2%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-10.5pp
Earns -3% on invested capital that costs about 7%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Asset growth vs peersIN LINE
71st pctile
The balance sheet grew +19% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-3.4%
3 months-5.6%
6 months+11.5%
Year to date+16.8%
1 year+2.6%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+12.2%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+9.7%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 49%
49 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsMay 7, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
39%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT ≤1 OF THE LAST 4
1 of 4
Its own record against consensus. 4 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 4 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias0.64× COHORT
Persistent
misses more often than it beats, by small margins
Next reportIN 39 DAYS
5 Nov 2026
Reports bmo · consensus EPS $1.37 · revenue 75.3 M
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.08 over 40 bars
Head and shoulders · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%499,633
21d51%+0.1%235,260
63d51%+0.3%74,900
head above two ≈-equal shoulders — bearish reversal
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,247,184
21d50%0.0%586,365
63d51%+0.3%185,394
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Descending triangle · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%506,531
21d48%0.0%238,519
63d49%0.0%75,354
flat support, falling resistance
Near resistance · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%530,198
21d52%+0.2%248,435
63d54%+0.4%78,078
testing recent resistance
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%764,373
21d45%0.0%357,385
63d47%0.0%112,620
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
0351.8× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $96.32, 51.8× forward earnings, RSI 49, and dealers short gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed2 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $98.33 · 200-day $92.86. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Down 0.11% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
49
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±2.6%
$2.54
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.25
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position57% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$95.52
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$96.38
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
5 Nov 2026 · in 39 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 28 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
50 / 50cohort n=13,076
Effectively a coin flip. A split this close is not an edge you can size on, whichever side is nominally ahead. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Low0.77× segment rate · n=11,162
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 61% of cases (n=11,162).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.3σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$92 – $963 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $95.46, Pivot low at $93.86, Pivot low at $93.76.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
25 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds are a coin flip.
Historically, names tripping 1 validated red flag finished lower 12 months later in 50% of cases (n=13,076) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-17.71
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months51.8×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit23.2×
Price / bookBook value is negative — liabilities exceed assets — so there is no asset base for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value-0.33%
3 of the 3 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. 1 is marked not meaningful because the figure it divides into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$95.84In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetDaily pivot + sma 50 + vwap 50
$98.41$98–$99
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$90.75risk $5.09/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.51:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+2.1%
short-term trend line · $98.33
To the 200-day
-3.6%
primary trend line · $92.86
To the put wall
-27.3%
heaviest put open interest · $70.00
To the call wall
+9.0%
heaviest call open interest · $105.00
To the composer's target
+2.2%
Daily pivot + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $98.41
To the composer's stop
-5.8%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $90.75
To the 52-week high
+10.1%
highest print of the past year · $106.06
To the 52-week low
-22.8%
lowest print of the past year · $74.38
Options-implied week ±7.5%
$89.14 – $103.50
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$93.78 – $98.86
±$2.54 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $95.84 · stop $90.75 · target $98.41, a 0.51:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 25, 2026
Signal
Short gamma — moves get amplified.
Dealers hedge in the same direction as the move, so swings get bigger both ways rather than one. That argues for a smaller position size, not for a direction.
Options tapeLast snapshot before the 2026-09-18 expiry · Chain · Sep 25, 2026
Max pain+12.2%
$105.00
The strike where most open options would have expired worthless on the last snapshot. That expiry has passed; the next chain read replaces it.
Put / call ratio (OI)PUT-HEAVY
2.00
33% calls
67% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $6.97
±7.5%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$70.00PUT2
$105.00CALL1
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-09-18 (expired)CallsPutsMax pain $105.00
1
$105.00
00
$70.00
2
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$106.06+13.3%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$105.00+12.2%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$105.00+12.2%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$98.33+5.1%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$70.00-25.2%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -5
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 83%, short interest is 2.24% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-5LEANING · 30d
1 bull / 3 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-2
latest EPS missed by a wide margin (low EPS base)
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
weak Piotroski F-score (3/8)
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (76/100)
Risk flagsDAILY · CONTEXT
-2
negative shareholder equity (liabilities exceed assets)
Signal
1 bull / 3 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -5 over 30d, a leaning reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street1 covering firms
Consensus rating1 ANALYSTS
Buy
Across 1 covering firms.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
82.8%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
23.7%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
2.24%
Rising — shares short changed +0.6% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Dollar volume (ADV)69th PCTILE
$16.17M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Funds entering / exitingNET -23
+18 / −41
Institutions opening a first position against those closing out entirely, at the latest filings.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
-0.11%
LLYVA was little changed −0.11% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “Linonia Partnership LP Trims Liberty Live Holdings Inc (LLYVA) S - gurufocus.com” (gurufocus.com).
News tone · 7-day—
76 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 49 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
SatResponsive Playbooks and the LLYVA Inflection - Stock Traders DailyStock Traders Dailynot scored
FriLinonia Partnership LP Trims Liberty Live Holdings Inc (LLYVA) S - gurufocus.comgurufocus.comnot scored
ThuLiberty Live Group stock gains 1.23 percent on Nasdaq - AD HOC NEWSAD HOC NEWSnot scored
Sep 15(LLYVA) Price Dynamics and Execution-Aware Positioning - news.stocktradersdaily.comnews.stocktradersdaily.comnot scored
Sep 11Liberty Media Corporation - Liberty Live Series A (NASDAQ:LLYVA) Shares Gap Up - Should You Buy? - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
Sep 9Maven Securities LTD Makes New $1.36 Million Investment in Liberty Media Corporation - Liberty Live Series A $LLYVA - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
Sep 5Discipline and Rules-Based Execution in LLYVA Response - Stock Traders DailyStock Traders Dailynot scored
Sep 2Liberty Live (LLYVA) names new top lawyer as Renee Wilm moves to advisor role - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net selling.
0 of 2 disclosures are buys and 2 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0511 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.56, 20% annual volatility, a -21% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−5.5%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−14.1%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementHEAVY TAIL
1.6×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.6×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-20.6%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.56
The market explains about 5.2% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
20%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure50
Buying pressure8
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
MedEarningslatest EPS missed by a wide margin (low EPS base)4 quarters · -2
MedQuality / valueweak Piotroski F-score (3/8)TTM · -2
MedRisk flagsnegative shareholder equity (liabilities exceed assets)Daily · -2
Signal
3 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.9%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.9% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
1.2%0.2× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 38.6% · tail cap 2.9% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.9% is the number (n=70,004). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 2.4% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
HighCash runwayAbout 80.5 quarters of cash at current burn ($524M cash against $26M a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 16.3% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.44% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 39 days, and the chain prices ±7.5% for the week.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.9% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
28 logged
28 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on LLYVATHIS NAME
28
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksENTERTAINMENT CONTENT
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+10.7% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
NFLXPeer$71.14-0.80%
DISPeer$106.15+0.56%
WBDPeer$30.86+0.06%
LYVPeer$170.87-0.11%
FWONKPeer$94.61-0.49%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-08-04
Signal
3 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 20, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Lower rates help growth-priced media and internet companies.
Typical for the Communication Services sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.9% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 89 of 160 report days
Across the last 160 Initial jobless claims reports since Aug 17, 2023, LLYVA moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedMedia and internet companies are valued on future growth, so higher rates for longer weigh on them.
Typical for the Communication Services sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later +1.4% · Rose on 23 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Aug 28, 2023, LLYVA moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 1.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Growth-priced media and internet companies fall when rates stay high.
Typical for the Communication Services sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later -0.4% · Two weeks later +1.8% · Rose on 21 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 FOMC decision reports since Aug 31, 2023, LLYVA moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedMedia and internet companies are valued on future growth, so higher rates for longer weigh on them.
Typical for the Communication Services sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later +1.4% · Rose on 23 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 PCE inflation reports since Aug 28, 2023, LLYVA moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 1.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expected
Media and internet companies are valued on future growth, so higher rates for longer weigh on them.
Typical for the Communication Services sector
On the day +0.7% · A week later +1.3% · Two weeks later +2.2% · Rose on 23 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Aug 12, 2023, LLYVA moved +0.7% on average on the day and was 2.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Media and internet companies are valued on future growth, so higher rates for longer weigh on them.
Typical for the Communication Services sector
On the day +0.7% · A week later +1.6% · Two weeks later +2.5% · Rose on 23 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Aug 12, 2023, LLYVA moved +0.7% on average on the day and was 2.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Media and internet companies are valued on future growth, so higher rates for longer weigh on them.
Typical for the Communication Services sector
On the day +0.7% · A week later +1.6% · Two weeks later +2.5% · Rose on 23 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Inflation (CPI) reports since Aug 12, 2023, LLYVA moved +0.7% on average on the day and was 2.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expectedMore jobs means more ad spending, but the higher-rates reaction usually wins on the day.
Typical for the Communication Services sector
On the day -0.4% · A week later +1.6% · Two weeks later +2.2% · Rose on 16 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Sep 4, 2023, LLYVA moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 2.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
AMZN · Suppliersupplier+0.12%Rumored · manual
WMT · Customercustomer+0.36%Rumored · manual
HD · Competitorcompetitor+0.35%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.