Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) — $76.29 +2.90%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

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NFLXpeers & supply-chain relationships

NFLX fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 26.90M · Avg 43.20M
NFLXNetflix, Inc.$76.29+2.90%Pre-market$76.74+0.59%

SELL.

We're bearish on this stock — not a name to own here.

The net signal reads -6 — more evidence points down than up — and the 50-day average sits below the 200-day, 1 accounting red flag is raised in the filings. Buying a dip into that is catching a falling stock, not finding value; the read stands until the signal or the company's condition improves.

QTick signal
-6net
0 bull / 3 bear factors · moderate
Bull 0 pts·Bear 6 pts30d
Bearish tape — sell
We're bearish on this stock — the tape and the structure both say so.
Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 0.5× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$75.91
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$126–127
center $126.71 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$3.66
4.8% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~78% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.2× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.62× · 26.90M vs 43.20M avg
52-week range$65.08 – $126.71
Below high since 2015-43.1% · $134.12 high
Risk / reward1 : 8.1
Plan stop$69.67
Max pain$70.00 options cluster
RSI 1458.9 fires under 35 · fires near $67.45
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$76.29
$64.98 · -14.8%-14.8%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+4.8% · $79.95+4.8%
Entry strategy · 10 triggersBearish tape — sell
RSI 14
58.9
fires under 35 · fires near $67.45
vs 50-day
$75.47
above the line · fires near $76.22
Bollinger
$67.19
no lower pierce · fires near $66.53
VWAP 20
$71.13
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $71.13
Entry level
$75.91
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$70.00
OI strike below · fires near $70.28
MACD
+0.81
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.62×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
2.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.21
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
20 Oct 2026
· in 69 days
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
prices 15-min delayed