Deep dive · NYQ: HLX
Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Event and Quality are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at -3 over 30d, a leaning reading on a dispersion of 0.29.
Leans up · and why
earnings, sentiment vote up. 1 of 5 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
quality / value, risk flags, insider flow vote down. 4 of 5 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Event against Quality.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are short gamma, so swings get bigger both ways.
Global tapeOverseas lean-4.88%
SydneyHLX-5.41%⏱FrankfurtH4R-4.35%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 2 overseas venues listed above with a quote, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart here
Wall Street rating
Buy
+16% to the average target
80% buy · 20% hold · 0% sell
mean target $12
mean target $12
Earnings
In 106 days
22 Feb 2027 · options imply ±0.0%
beat 5–6 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=46,131
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=46,131
Valuation
19.5× forward
43rd of its own five-year range
5yr median 66×
FCF yield 7.71%
FCF yield 7.71%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 2 clear
worst drawdown -2%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NYQ · USDOil & Gas Equipment & Services
$10.60+0.30 · +2.91%CLOSED · vol 3.86M
52-week range↑ 74% off low · ↓ 1.4% off high
$6.11now $10.60$10.75
Quote Sep 1, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-02
Tape 2026-09-02
01Ratios · Jul 18, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 1.8 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
1.77DISTRESS ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 18, 2026
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 6/9
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills2.75×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.40
Leverage · long-term debt / total assetsthe share of everything the company owns that long-term borrowing funds0.12
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$184.55M
Free cash flow · TTMcash left after running and reinvesting in the business$167.43M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
19th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldSHRINKING
2.36%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
2.36%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
0.5%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
SBC / operating cash flowFLAT
5%
How much of the cash the business generates is being handed to employees as stock. The higher it runs, the more of a buyback is just offsetting it.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.07%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
60 / 100
1 critical · 2 watch · 2 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ 1.77Altman-Z in the Distress · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.29M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.19long-term debt 0.19× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 6/9Piotroski F-score 6 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 2 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Nov 8, 2026POOR · 23/100
Business quality
2% net margin, 2% return on equity, -5% revenue growth, and capital earning 3% against a 7% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
23 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Nov 8, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
2.4%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
12.3%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
6.4%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
2.0%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-3.6pp
Earns 3% on invested capital that costs about 7%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Asset growth vs peersIN LINE
41st pctile
The balance sheet grew +1% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+7.6%
3 months+8.3%
6 months+12.6%
Year to date+64.8%
1 year+58.2%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-4.9%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-41.7%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
Around earningsAug 6, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
64%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
5 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
50%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
50%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±7.2%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missSYMMETRIC
+2.8% / -2.1%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Oct 13, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.1%1,163,542
21d47%-0.4%549,860
63d47%-0.8%174,335
slope +0.12 over 40 bars
Bearish engulfing · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%160,743
21d49%0.0%75,701
63d50%-0.1%24,090
red body engulfs prior green
Dark cloud cover · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%166,418
21d50%0.0%78,466
63d50%0.0%25,068
closes below prior midpoint
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%667,086
21d51%+0.1%313,950
63d53%+0.4%99,082
flat resistance, rising support
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%799,756
21d44%0.0%375,743
63d47%0.0%116,642
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
0343RD OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $10.60, 19.5× forward earnings, RSI 73, and dealers short gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Momentum (RSI-14)
73OVERBOUGHT
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-08-29 → 2026-09-02
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Up 2.91% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.14
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Pivots (classic)R1 $11 · S1 $10
$10.52
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
DeMark countdownUP SETUP
4 of 9
Counts consecutive closes against the prior trend. A completed 9 often marks exhaustion.
22 Feb 2027 · in 106 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number.
2026-11-10 · in 2 daysInflation (CPI)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
37 / 63cohort n=487
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.00× segment rate · n=82,829
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 80% of cases (n=82,829).
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 3 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 62% of cases (n=487) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-3.03pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-1.25
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months19.5×5yr median 66×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported44.2×43rd of its 5yr range
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit1.2×5yr median 1.1×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.0×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay8.3×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off14.5×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value7.71%
1 of the 7 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 1, 2026
Entryzone of S1
$10.48Approach
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetDaily pivot + 52-week high
$10.75$11–$11
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
StopChandelier
$9.70risk $0.78/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.34:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the put wall
+3.8%
heaviest put open interest · $11.00
To the call wall
-43.4%
heaviest call open interest · $6.00
To the composer's target
+1.4%
Daily pivot + 52-week high · set Sep 1, 2026 · $10.75
To the composer's stop
-8.5%
Chandelier · set Sep 1, 2026 · $9.70
To the 52-week high
+1.4%
highest print of the past year · $10.75
To the 52-week low
-42.4%
lowest print of the past year · $6.11
Options-implied week ±0.0%
$10.60 – $10.60
what the chain prices for the week
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $10.48 · stop $9.70 · target $10.75, a 0.34:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 19, 2026
Signal
Short gamma — moves get amplified.
Dealers hedge in the same direction as the move, so swings get bigger both ways rather than one. That argues for a smaller position size, not for a direction.
Options tapeLast snapshot before the 2026-10-16 expiry · Chain · Sep 19, 2026
Max pain+3.8%
$11.00
The strike where most open options would have expired worthless on the last snapshot. That expiry has passed; the next chain read replaces it.
Put / call ratio (OI)PUT-HEAVY
11.00
8% calls
92% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $0.00
±0.0%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$11.00PUT6
$10.00PUT5
$6.00CALL1
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-10-16 (expired)CallsPutsMax pain $11.00
0
$11.00
60
$10.00
51
$6.00
0
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$10.75+1.4%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$6.00-43.4%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$11.00+3.8%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ Put wall$11.00+3.8%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -3
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 95%, short interest is 5.25% of float, and 1 analysts average $12.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-3LEANING · 30d
2 bull / 3 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+1
latest EPS beat by 82%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($4,443,544 across 2 sells) in 120d
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
Altman-Z in the distress zone
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (100/100)
Risk flagsDAILY · CONTEXT
-2
low gross profitability (bottom-quintile quality)
Signal
2 bull / 3 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -3 over 30d, a leaning reading. 5 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readNov 8, 2026
Signal
4 of 5 families lean down.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.29 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street1 covering firms
Consensus rating1 ANALYSTS
Buy
80% buy · 20% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 1 covering firms.
Mean price target+16%
$12
$9now $11$14
A $9.00–$14 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$0.54
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
94.6%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
6.8%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
5.25%
The share of the tradable float sold short.
Free float93% OF SHARES
137.23M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)69th PCTILE
$16.15M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
WHITEBOX ADVISORS LLC · 10% ownerFilingnot on file—11 Sep
ASOF Investment Management LLC · 10% ownerFilingnot on file—09 Sep
ARES MANAGEMENT LLC · 10% ownerFilingnot on file—09 Sep
Rosen Aaron Marc · DirectorFilingnot on file—09 Sep
ASOF HOS GP, LLC · 10% ownerFilingnot on file—09 Sep
HORNBECK TODD M · Director, See RemarksAwardnot on file—02 Sep
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Nov 5, 2026NEWS
+2.91%
HLX rose +2.91% in today's session, amid recent coverage: “Helix Energy Solutions Group Q3 2026 Earnings Date and Estimates - MarketBeat” (MarketBeat).
News tone · 7-day—
100 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 48 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
FriHeartland Express Inc (HLX.SG) Seasonal Returns Chart - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
FriHornbeck Offshore Services Inc (HOS) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Helix Merger Fuels $1. ... - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
ThuHelix Energy Solutions Group Q3 2026 Earnings Date and Estimates - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
ThuHelix Resources Director Receives Shares and Options - TipRanksTipRanksnot scored
WedHelix Resources Explains Timing of Canex Disclosure to ASX - TipRanksTipRanksnot scored
WedHelix Resources Issues 45.78 Million Shares Under Placement - TipRanksTipRanksnot scored
WedHelix Resources Seeks Quotation of 45.8 Million Shares - TipRanksTipRanksnot scored
TueHelix Resources Completes Share and Option Placement - TipRanksTipRanksnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net selling.
1 of 4 disclosures are buys and 3 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0512 graded calls
Risk & track record
a -2% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-2.1%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
What votes againstNightly
MedQuality / valueAltman-Z in the distress zoneTTM · -2
MedRisk flagslow gross profitability (bottom-quintile quality)Daily · -2
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($4,443,544 across 2 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
3 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Avoid score6-month distress
0.8%0.1× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
LowPosition sizeThe sizing model has not covered this name, so no defensible cap is published for it.Not scored
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighRestatement history1 restatement in 2 years. The flagged-company base rate is 6.2× the unflagged one.Integrity
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
Our track record12 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
41 logged
41 calls logged on this name, 12 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
0610-K disclosed linksOIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 6 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+9.6% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
SLBPeer$49.92+0.56%
BKRPeer$47.87+3.61%
TSPeer$58.85+4.10%
HALPeer$31.84-0.25%
TNRSFPeer$29.150.00%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
3 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Inflation (CPI)
2026-11-10. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockNov 6, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Less commuting, shipping and factory activity means less fuel demand.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +1.0% · Rose on 91 of 163 report days
Across the last 163 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, HLX moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
A busier economy burns more fuel.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later +2.0% · Two weeks later +1.8% · Rose on 20 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, HLX moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 1.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI) is due in 5 days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually helps when producer prices run hotter than expectedOil and gas prices tend to rise with inflation, so energy companies earn more.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +0.9% · Rose on 18 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, HLX moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expected
Oil and gas prices tend to rise with inflation, so energy companies earn more.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later -1.2% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 15 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, HLX moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI) is due in 2 days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expectedOil and gas prices tend to rise with inflation, so energy companies earn more.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 18 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, HLX moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Inflation (CPI) is due in 2 days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expectedOil and gas prices tend to rise with inflation, so energy companies earn more.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 18 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, HLX moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expected
More people working means more commuting, shipping and power use.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later +1.6% · Rose on 14 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, HLX moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 1.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expected
More people working means more commuting, shipping and power use.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day -0.7% · A week later +1.6% · Two weeks later +1.8% · Rose on 13 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, HLX moved -0.7% on average on the day and was 1.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentumSep 9, 2026
Customer momentumTOP
+16.8%
The dependency-weighted trailing return of the customers this company discloses a revenue dependence on. Their tape leads its orders.
Lead-lag gapBEHIND CUSTOMERS
-9.2%
This company's own move less its customers' weighted move. A wide gap in either direction usually closes.
Disclosed customer dependencies
CustomerRevenue weightWindow returnLast filed
PBR23.0%+16.0%2024-02-29
TALO12.0%+19.3%2025-02-27
APA11.0%+15.7%2025-02-27
Weights are as disclosed in the filings, so they describe the last reported period rather than today. Historical, point-in-time backtest of a cross-sectional screen (135 months, 2013-2026), gross of trading costs. The equal-weighted base effect is marginal (t 1.84); statistical significance relies on the dependency weighting (t 2.02). Validated on monthly rebalancing; served daily on the same 21-bar horizon. This is a research screen describing a group-level historical spread - not a forecast of any individual stock's return.
Connections6 links · 3 confirmed
Direct connections · 6 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
APA · Suppliersupplier+2.64%Confirmed · 10K
TALO · Suppliersupplier+1.09%Confirmed · 10K
PBR · Suppliersupplier-1.44%Confirmed · 10K
CAT · Suppliersupplier+0.90%Rumored · manual
XOM · Customercustomer+0.34%Rumored · manual
EPD · Competitorcompetitor+1.12%Rumored · manual
3 of 6 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.