Deep dive · NYSE: ELPC
Companhia Paranaense de Energia stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Companhia Paranaense de Energia. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tapeOverseas lean0.00%
MéxicoELPCN0.00%⏱FrankfurtELP0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 2 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $11.69 · +4.7%
200-day $11.27 · +8.6%
200-day $11.27 · +8.6%
Earnings
In 47 days
12 Nov 2026
cohort P(beat) 61% · n=139,854
Valuation
16.9× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield 31.06%
Dividend
4.41%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 0.96 · vol 27% ann.
worst drawdown -22%
worst drawdown -22%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does234 chars
Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, study, planning, construction, production, transformation, transportation, distribution, and commercialization of electricity in Brazil.
NYSE · USDRegulated Electric Utilities
$12.24+0.16 · +1.32%CLOSED · vol 593.2K
52-week range↑ 48% off low · ↓ 10.6% off high
$8.26now $12.24$13.70
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jun 22, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 0.9 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
0.94DISTRESS ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 22, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
5.6σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.21%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 6/9
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills0.98×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.88
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$17.18B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
71st pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE D
50 / 100
1 critical · 2 watch · 1 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ 0.95Altman-Z in the distress zone · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not applicable to this sector · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.78long-term debt 0.78× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 6/9Piotroski F-score 6 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 2 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026POOR · 38/100
Business quality
10% net margin, 12% return on equity, +15% revenue growth, and capital earning 9% against a 4% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
38 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
10.3%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
21.7%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
17.4%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
11.6%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
5.7pp
Earns 9% on invested capital that costs about 4%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
30.0%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+8.8%
3 months+3.8%
6 months+7.3%
Year to date+37.2%
1 year+38.8%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+15.3%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-4.1%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+32.5%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 31%
69 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 5, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameTRAILING
3 of 3
Its own record against consensus. 3 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 3 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Next reportIN 47 DAYS
12 Nov 2026
Reports amc · consensus EPS $0.18 · revenue 7.9 B
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
4.41%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
1-2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 26, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,132,432
21d47%-0.1%531,932
63d48%-0.7%170,248
slope +0.14 over 40 bars
Rising wedge · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%227,887
21d49%0.0%106,738
63d50%0.0%34,201
rising & converging — bearish
Bull flag · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d42%-0.1%74,563
21d43%-0.7%34,642
63d43%-2.7%11,071
sharp rally then shallow pullback — continuation
Cup and handle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.2%701,064
21d47%-0.4%328,275
63d47%-1.4%104,377
U-base + small handle pullback
Near support · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%536,115
21d53%+0.2%251,312
63d54%+0.4%78,900
testing recent support
0316.9× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $12.24, 16.9× forward earnings, RSI 53.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2002 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $11.69 · 200-day $11.27. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 1.32% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
53
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±2.5%
$0.31
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.06
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position47% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$12.23
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$11.87
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
12 Nov 2026 · in 47 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 7 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Low0.73× segment rate · n=16,647
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 58% of cases (n=16,647).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-0.1σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$12 – $123 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $12.18, S1 at $12.06, Pivot low at $12.04.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
1.69pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-5.76
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months16.9×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported14.9×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.3×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets0.4×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay5.3×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off9.3×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value31.06%
0 of the 7 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$12.18In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
Target52-week high
$13.49$13–$14
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$11.56risk $0.62/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
2.12:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-4.5%
short-term trend line · $11.69
To the 200-day
-7.9%
primary trend line · $11.27
To the composer's target
+10.2%
52-week high · set Sep 25, 2026 · $13.49
To the composer's stop
-5.6%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $11.56
To the 52-week high
+11.9%
highest print of the past year · $13.70
To the 52-week low
-32.6%
lowest print of the past year · $8.26
A typical day (ATR)
$11.93 – $12.55
±$0.31 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $12.18 · stop $11.56 · target $13.49, a 2.12:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +3
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 3%, short interest is 0.03% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+3LEANING · 30d
2 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+2
latest EPS beat by 117%
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (90/100)
Signal
2 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +3 over 30d, a leaning reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
2.9%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
0.03%
Rising — shares short changed +77.6% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Dollar volume (ADV)59th PCTILE
$5.41M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Funds entering / exitingNET +5
+8 / −3
Institutions opening a first position against those closing out entirely, at the latest filings.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
de Abreu Marco Antonio Villela · DirectorSell$95,459—16 Jun
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
+1.32%
ELPC rose +1.32% since the last close — no identified catalyst in our coverage.
News tone · 7-day—
90 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 48 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
FriTrading the Move, Not the Narrative: (ELPC) Edition - Stock Traders DailyStock Traders Dailynot scored
Sep 17Energy Co of Parana (NYSE: ELPC) moves to delist from a Madrid stock market segment - stocktitan.netstocktitan.netnot scored
Sep 17Copel (NYSE: ELPC) board OKs Latibex exit and AI rules - stocktitan.netstocktitan.netnot scored
Sep 15(ELPC) Movement Within Algorithmic Entry Frameworks - Stock Traders DailyStock Traders Dailynot scored
Sep 5Precision Trading with Companhia Paranaense De Energia (copel) American Depositary Shares (each Representing Four (4)) (ELPC) Risk Zones - Stock Traders DailyStock Traders Dailynot scored
Sep 2Cia Paranaense De Energia Copel (ELPC) Shares Surge 4.1% -- What GF Score of 40 Tells Investors - GuruFocusGuruFocusnot scored
Aug 20Companhia (ELPC) EPS and Revenue: Profit Per Share Clears Its Benchmark for the Current Session - VinanetVinanetnot scored
Aug 20Companhia (ELPC) EPS and Revenue: Profit Per Share Clears Its Benchmark for the Current Session - dars.gov.etdars.gov.etnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.96, 27% annual volatility, a -22% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−6.1%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−8.8%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.4×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-21.9%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)IN LINE
0.96
Moves about 1.0× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
27%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure49
Overheat16
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.6%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.6% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
1.0%0.1× its cohort · mid-volume names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this mid-volume names segment: 8.7%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 28.1% · tail cap 2.6% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.6% is the number (n=120,445). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 4.1% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.6% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
8 logged
8 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on ELPCTHIS NAME
8
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksREGULATED ELECTRIC UTILITIES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-84.8% per +1ppMEASURED
Measured against the 10-year yield: a one-point move in the yield has come with about a 84.8% move here, independent of company news.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
NEEPeer$76.08+0.61%
SOPeer$82.88-0.01%
DUKPeer$113.35+0.11%
NGGTFPeer$15.10+0.40%
NGGPeer$75.49+0.35%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-12-29
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 3 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 26, 2026
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedUtilities pay steady dividends much like bonds, so when rates rise on hot inflation investors sell them.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +1.3% · Rose on 14 of 32 report days
Across the last 32 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jan 28, 2024, ELPC moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Utilities trade like bonds and fall when the Fed signals higher rates.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day -0.8% · A week later +1.4% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 11 of 32 report days
Across the last 32 FOMC decision reports since Jan 31, 2024, ELPC moved -0.8% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedUtilities pay steady dividends much like bonds, so when rates rise on hot inflation investors sell them.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +1.3% · Rose on 14 of 32 report days
Across the last 32 PCE inflation reports since Jan 28, 2024, ELPC moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Utilities pay steady dividends much like bonds, so when rates rise on hot inflation investors sell them.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.4% · Two weeks later +1.3% · Rose on 18 of 31 report days
Across the last 31 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jan 12, 2024, ELPC moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Utilities pay steady dividends much like bonds, so when rates rise on hot inflation investors sell them.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.4% · Two weeks later +1.3% · Rose on 18 of 31 report days
Across the last 31 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jan 12, 2024, ELPC moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Utilities trade like bonds and rise when rates fall.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +0.7% · Rose on 69 of 140 report days
Across the last 140 Initial jobless claims reports since Jan 11, 2024, ELPC moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually hurts when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Utilities fall when a strong economy lifts rates.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +0.3% · Rose on 17 of 32 report days
Across the last 32 Industrial production reports since Jan 15, 2024, ELPC moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expectedUtilities trade like bonds and fall when strong jobs lift rates.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +2.0% · Rose on 15 of 32 report days
Across the last 32 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Feb 4, 2024, ELPC moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 2.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
EPD · Competitorcompetitor-1.40%Rumored · manual
XOM · Customercustomer-0.96%Rumored · manual
CAT · Suppliersupplier+2.03%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.