Deep dive · NMS: COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Coinbase Global, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Street and Positioning are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at -2 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.35.
Leans up · and why
earnings vote up. 2 of 5 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
analyst moves, insider flow, sentiment vote down. 3 of 5 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Street against Positioning.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are short gamma, so swings get bigger both ways.
Global tape
Frankfurt1QZ—⏱ZurichCOIN—⏱StockholmCOIN—⏱MéxicoCOIN*—⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-11-06
Wall Street rating
Buy
+46% to the average target
61% buy · 32% hold · 8% sell
mean target $197
mean target $197
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $175.35 · -23.1%
200-day $175.99 · -23.4%
200-day $175.99 · -23.4%
Earnings
In 95 days
11 Feb 2027 · options imply ±10.4%
beat 3–4 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=39,143
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=39,143
Valuation
55.2× forward
77th of its own five-year range
5yr median 38×
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
3 on watch
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 2.83 · vol 72% ann.
worst drawdown -58%
worst drawdown -58%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NMS · USDFinancial Data & Exchanges
$134.76-2.06 · -1.51%CLOSED · vol 7.56M
52-week range↑ 2% off low · ↓ 58.5% off high
$131.55now $134.76$324.80
Quote Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
01Ratios · Jun 12, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 2.8 against a 3.0 safe threshold, interest covered 17.3×, and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
2.83GREY ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 12, 2026
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 4/9
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Interest coverageoperating profit against the interest bill, from the latest annual SEC filing17.3×healthy >5
Leverage · long-term debt / total assetsthe share of everything the company owns that long-term borrowing funds0.24
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
77th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Buyback yieldGROSS
2.18%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueELEVATED
11.7%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
SBC / operating cash flowFALLING
35%
How much of the cash the business generates is being handed to employees as stock. The higher it runs, the more of a buyback is just offsetting it.
Diluted vs basic share gapOVERHANG
10.43%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
62 / 100
0 critical · 3 watch · 1 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 2.65Altman-Z in the grey zone · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not applicable to this sector · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.40long-term debt 0.40× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/9Piotroski F-score 4 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 3 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Nov 8, 2026FAIR · 44/100
Business quality
18% net margin, 9% return on equity, +9% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
44 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Nov 8, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
17.6%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
74.6%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
20.3%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
8.5%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Revenue (TTM)+9% YoY
$5.63B
Trailing twelve-month revenue from the latest filings.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-21.7%
3 months-9.4%
6 months-33.0%
Year to date-40.4%
1 year-57.8%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+9.4%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-53.1%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-46.1%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 48%
48 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsOct 29, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
53%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 3–4 OF THE LAST 8
4 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
58%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
36%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±5.4%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missASYMMETRIC
-1.2% / -2.7%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Nov 6, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,308,676
21d47%0.0%613,759
63d47%-0.9%195,225
slope -0.29 over 40 bars
Spinning top
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%-0.1%200,974
21d49%-0.2%94,842
63d49%-0.1%30,228
small body, shadows both sides
Death cross · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%10,529
21d51%+0.2%4,939
63d51%+0.4%1,563
SMA50 crossed below SMA200
0377TH OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $134.76, 55.2× forward earnings, RSI 33, and dealers short gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $175.35 · 200-day $175.99. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-11-04 → 2026-11-06
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Down 1.51% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
33
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±7.6%
$10.29
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-2.75
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position5% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$158.81
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$154.62
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
11 Feb 2027 · in 95 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number.
2026-11-10 · in 2 daysInflation (CPI)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
50 / 50cohort n=12,270
Effectively a coin flip. A split this close is not an edge you can size on, whichever side is nominally ahead. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.00× segment rate · n=1,289
Historically, crypto names in this tape state saw a ≥20% pullback within 63 trading days in 87% of cases (n=1,289).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.8σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$126 – $1342 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Low 52w at $131.55, S1 at $131.11.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
81 / 100Falling knife
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds are a coin flip.
Historically, names tripping 1 validated red flag finished lower 12 months later in 50% of cases (n=12,270) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-3.35pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months55.2×5yr median 38×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported58.2×77th of its 5yr range
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit5.0×5yr median 7.8×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets2.4×
2 of the 4 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingNov 6, 2026
Entryzone of 52-week low + S1 + put wall
$134.09In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetCall wall
$144.00$141–$147
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$113.50risk $20.58/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.48:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+30.1%
short-term trend line · $175.35
To the 200-day
+30.6%
primary trend line · $175.99
To the put wall
-3.5%
heaviest put open interest · $130.00
To the call wall
+6.9%
heaviest call open interest · $144.00
To the composer's target
+6.9%
Call wall · set Nov 6, 2026 · $144.00
To the composer's stop
-15.8%
2× ATR below entry · set Nov 6, 2026 · $113.50
To the 52-week high
+141.0%
highest print of the past year · $324.80
To the 52-week low
-2.4%
lowest print of the past year · $131.55
Options-implied week ±10.4%
$120.81 – $148.71
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$124.47 – $145.05
±$10.29 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $134.09 · stop $113.50 · target $144.00, a 0.48:1 ratio. The composer flagged: elevated distress, gamma ceiling, low reward to risk, target inside one week's move.
Gamma mapChain · Nov 8, 2026
Signal
Short gamma — moves get amplified.
Dealers hedge in the same direction as the move, so swings get bigger both ways rather than one. That argues for a smaller position size, not for a direction.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-11-13 · Chain · Nov 8, 2026
Max pain+11.3%
$150.00
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)PUT-HEAVY
1.52
40% calls
60% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.26
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $13.95
±10.4%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$130.00PUT1,583
$135.00PUT1,416
$140.00PUT874
$137.00PUT546
$140.00CALL473
$138.00CALL254
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-11-13CallsPutsMax pain $150.00
215
$142.00
112135
$141.00
161473
$140.00
874168
$139.00
202254
$138.00
137128
$137.00
546178
$136.00
140142
$135.00
1k21
$134.00
12289
$133.00
2100
$132.00
11713
$131.00
6537
$130.00
2k0
$129.00
730
$128.00
710
$127.00
118
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$324.80+141.0%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$144.00+6.9%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$150.00+11.3%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$175.35+30.1%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$130.00-3.5%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 68%, short interest is 10.77% of float, and 27 analysts average $197.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-2BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 3 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
-1
1 analyst upgrade in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+1
latest EPS beat by a wide margin (low EPS base)
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($23,029,486 across 31 sells) in 120d
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
-1
7d sentiment depressed (29/100)
Signal
1 bull / 3 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readNov 8, 2026
Signal
3 of 5 families lean down.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.35 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street27 covering firms
Consensus rating27 ANALYSTS
Buy
61% buy · 32% hold · 8% sell, as a share of the 27 covering firms.
Mean price target+46%
$197
$110now $135$280
A $110–$280 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$2.66
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Freedom Broker$175↓53/100
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods$221↓48/100
Cantor Fitzgerald$200↓46/100
Morgan Stanley$120↓51/100
Rosenblatt$185↓55/100
Canaccord Genuity$275↓56/100
JP Morgan$187↓50/100
Goldman Sachs$210↓52/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
67.8%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
1.3%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
10.77%
Falling — shares short changed -5.8% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float99% OF SHARES
220.74M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)99th PCTILE
$1.26B/day
At this depth, position size is not a constraint for a retail account.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Andreessen Marc L · DirectorSell$2.5M—01 Oct
Andreessen Marc L · DirectorSell$1.4M—02 Oct
Andreessen Marc L · DirectorSell$1.4M—21 Sep
HAAS ALESIA J · Chief Financial OfficerSell$83,504—21 Sep
HAAS ALESIA J · Chief Financial OfficerSell$7.4M—21 Sep
HAAS ALESIA J · Chief Financial OfficerSell$290,843—21 Sep
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
-1.51%
COIN fell −1.51% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “Is Coinbase Building a More Resilient and Profitable Business? - Yahoo Finance” (Yahoo Finance).
News tone · 7-day—
29 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 50 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
SatIs Coinbase Stock A Buy Right Now? - TrefisTrefisnot scored
SatCOIN Stock Price Forecast: Morgan Stanley Cuts Price Target by Over 50% to $120, COIN Risks Falling to $100 - TradingKeyTradingKeynot scored
FriIs Coinbase Building a More Resilient and Profitable Business? - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
ThuCoinbase Global (COIN) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targets - TipRanksTipRanksnot scored
ThuBitcoin (BTC) price falls below $76K as AI stock rout hit Strategy (MSTR), Coinbase (COIN), Circle (CRCL) - CoinDeskCoinDesknot scored
ThuCoinbase vs. Cboe Global: Which Exchange Stock Offers More Upside? - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
ThuCoinbase Seeks To Reassure Investors After Binance Hack - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
ThuIs Wall Street Bullish or Bearish on Coinbase Stock? - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net selling.
2 of 6 disclosures are buys and 4 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0517 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 2.83, 72% annual volatility, a -58% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-57.6%IT CAN HALVE
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
2.83
Moves about 2.8× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
72%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Falling knife
Selling pressure65
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: falling_knife — Still breaking lower without consolidation — a fresh swing-low printed and no basing pattern has formed yet.
What votes againstNightly
LowAnalyst moves1 analyst upgrade in 90d90d · -1
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($23,029,486 across 31 sells) in 120d120d · -1
LowSentiment7d sentiment depressed (29/100)1–30d · -1
Signal
3 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company typeRouted as: Crypto-equity
Signal
Routed as Crypto-equity.
Failure modes are routed by company type, and the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are the validated ones. This name routes as Crypto-equity, so the 3 checks above are that cohort's, not a generic list.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Avoid score6-month distress
32.4%10.9× its cohort · financials
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this financials segment: 3.0%. This name reads 10.9× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
LowPosition sizeThe sizing model has not covered this name, so no defensible cap is published for it.Not scored
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighRestatement history4 restatements in 2 years. The flagged-company base rate is 6.2× the unflagged one.Integrity
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -58%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 72% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 2.83 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
Our track record17 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
43 logged
43 calls logged on this name, 17 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
0610-K disclosed linksFINANCIAL DATA & EXCHANGES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 17 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+8.3% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
SPGIPeer$467.80-0.98%
CMEPeer$305.89-0.44%
ICEPeer$172.27-0.99%
MCOPeer$505.67-1.88%
NDAQPeer$107.12+0.27%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
1 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Inflation (CPI) reactionn=40
1.29×
On these days it moves about 1.3× the market, regardless of company news.
Jobs report reactionn=41
0.77×
On these days it moves about 0.8× the market, regardless of company news.
Fed decision (FOMC) reactionn=41
1.11×
On these days it moves about 1.1× the market, regardless of company news.
Inflation (PCE) reactionn=41
0.97×
On these days it moves about 1.0× the market, regardless of company news.
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Inflation (CPI)
2026-11-10. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockNov 5, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
More missed loan payments and less borrowing; lower rates also thin banks' margins.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later +0.9% · Two weeks later +2.2% · Rose on 78 of 172 report days
Across the last 172 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, COIN moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 2.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Housing starts is due in 10 days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expectedMore mortgages get written.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +0.9% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later -0.4% · Rose on 22 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, COIN moved +0.9% on average on the day and was 0.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Businesses borrow more when they are growing.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 22 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, COIN moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Retail sales is due in 9 days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expectedMore card swipes and consumer borrowing when spending is strong.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 22 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, COIN moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 12 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Usually helps when consumers feel better than expectedConfident consumers borrow more.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +1.9% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, COIN moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 1.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expected
Employed people repay loans and borrow more; banks benefit.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.5% · A week later +1.6% · Two weeks later +5.5% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, COIN moved -0.5% on average on the day and was 5.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expected
Employed people repay loans and borrow more; banks benefit.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -1.3% · A week later +3.0% · Two weeks later +6.1% · Rose on 16 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, COIN moved -1.3% on average on the day and was 6.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Unemployment rateUsually hurts when unemployment rises more than expected
More missed loan payments and less borrowing; lower rates also thin banks' margins.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -1.4% · A week later +3.1% · Two weeks later +6.7% · Rose on 15 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Unemployment rate reports since Jul 6, 2023, COIN moved -1.4% on average on the day and was 6.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections17 links · 3 confirmed
Direct connections · 17 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
GBTC · Suppliersuppliernot pricedRumored · manual
CLSK · Partnerpartner+8.45%Confirmed · manual
V · Partnerpartner+0.01%Rumored · manual
OP · Partnerpartnernot pricedRumored · manual
CRCL · Partnerpartner-2.30%Rumored · manual
CIRCLE · Partnerpartnernot pricedRumored · manual
BLK · Suppliersupplier+0.70%Rumored · manual
JPM · Partnerpartner-0.84%Rumored · manual
RIOT · Partnerpartner+13.21%Confirmed · manual
GOOGL · Suppliersupplier+0.78%Rumored · manual
MSTR · Suppliersupplier-0.29%Rumored · manual
AAPL · Partnerpartner-0.52%Rumored · manual
MSTR · Suppliersupplier-0.29%Rumored · manual
MARA · Partnerpartner+8.09%Confirmed · manual
PLAID · Suppliersuppliernot pricedRumored · manual
CUBI · Partnerpartner+0.49%Rumored · manual
BMNR · Partnerpartner-1.26%Rumored · manual
3 of 17 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
What it depends on
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.