Circle Internet Group (CRCL) — Capital Markets. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 11.09M · 3-mo avg 14.71M

Circle Internet Group (CRCL)

CRCLCircle Internet Grouploading…
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QTick signal
+3net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on file—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$88.55
basis · pivot low + s1 + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$158–161
center $159.47 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
—
not on file
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Pullback risk
In line
1.18× the norm · 98% saw a ≥20% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.71×
52-week range$49.90 – $159.47
Below high sincenot on file
Risk / reward5.22 : 1
Plan stop$75.51
Max pain—
RSI 1450.7 fires under 35 · fires near $63.47
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple17.8× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Price / book6.79×

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 4.3%. Over the last 20 sessions, 49% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 5 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
50.7
fires under 35 · fires near $63.47
vs 50-day
●
$79.59
above the line · fires near $80.11
Bollinger
●
$81.32
no lower pierce · fires near $79.47
VWAP 20
✓
$91.90
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$88.55
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-0.87
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.71×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
11.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$6.52
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-11
in 33 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file