Deep dive · NasdaqCM: BOF
BranchOut Food Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on BranchOut Food Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Event and Quality are pulling against each other and the split is genuine rather than a formality. The net lands at -2 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.36, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings vote up. 1 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
quality / value vote down. 3 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Event against Quality.
What it changes
Size, not direction. separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −7.7%; and the binding position cap is 1.7% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean0.00%
Frankfurt6KE0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 1 overseas venue listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-17
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $4.02 · -7.1%
200-day $3.71 · +0.5%
200-day $3.71 · +0.5%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
2 critical
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 1.37 · vol 42% ann.
worst drawdown -36%
worst drawdown -36%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does197 chars
BranchOut Food Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, markets, sells, and distributes plant-based dehydrated fruit and vegetable snacks, and powders in the United States and Latin America.
NasdaqCM · USDPackaged Foods
$3.73+0.06 · +1.63%AH · vol 50.4K
52-week range↑ 93% off low · ↓ 29.0% off high
$1.93now $3.73$5.25
After-hours
$3.730.00%
Sep 18, 2026 · 4:04 PM ET
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · time not on file
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-17
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-17
01Ratios · Sep 7, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 1.0 against a 3.0 safe threshold, interest covered -6.9×, and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
0.95DISTRESS ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetSep 7, 2026
Piotroski F-scoreCRITICAL
F 3/8
Piotroski F-score 3 of 8. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Interest coverageoperating profit against the interest bill-6.9×healthy >5
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.34
Your ownership stake
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE F
38 / 100
2 critical · 1 watch · 1 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ 0.95Altman-Z in the Distress · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.18long-term debt 0.18× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCRITICALF 3/8Piotroski F-score 3 of 8 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 1 watch and 2 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02
Business quality
The quality blocks below render whatever the filings support; anything absent says so in place.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
12-1 momentum
+74.0%EX LAST MONTH
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Profitability
Data unavailableNo parsed income statement is on file, so margins, returns on capital and cash generation cannot be computed for this name.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-5.7%
3 months-14.3%
6 months+0.3%
Year to date+13.3%
1 year+61.0%
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 30%
30 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 13, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameTRAILING
1 of 1
Its own record against consensus. 1 print is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 1 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 18, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,260,321
21d48%0.0%593,656
63d47%-0.5%186,156
slope -0.07 over 40 bars
Tweezer bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d45%0.0%343,068
21d46%0.0%161,560
63d47%0.0%50,875
matching lows
Three black crows · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%310,689
21d50%0.0%146,312
63d49%-0.4%46,362
three falling red bars
Head and shoulders · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%497,561
21d51%+0.1%234,322
63d51%+0.3%74,513
head above two ≈-equal shoulders — bearish reversal
Near support · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%533,688
21d53%+0.2%250,417
63d54%+0.4%78,400
testing recent support
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%757,951
21d45%0.0%355,725
63d47%0.0%112,112
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
03
Price & timing
Price $3.73, RSI 37.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed1 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $4.02 · 200-day $3.71. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-13 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 1.63% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
37
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.6%
$0.17
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.01
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position10% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$3.93
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$3.65
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
44 / 55cohort n=3,948
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Low0.84× segment rate · n=7,499
Historically, micro names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 74% of cases (n=7,499).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-2.2σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$3 – $42 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $3.54, Pivot low at $3.33.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
34 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 2 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 55% of cases (n=3,948) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Data unavailableNo parsed earnings or cash flows are on file, so no multiple can be computed. A pre-profit company has nothing to divide the price into.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableMicro-cap names are excluded from the level composer by design. At this size the daily range routinely swallows the distance between an entry and a stop, so the levels would describe noise rather than structure.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 26%, short interest is 0.42% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-2BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+2
latest EPS beat by 10%
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-4
weak Piotroski F-score (3/8)
Signal
1 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 18, 2026
Signal
3 of 4 families lean down.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.36 means the disagreement is a genuine split.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
26.4%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
13.5%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
0.42%
Falling — shares short changed -18.1% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float75% OF SHARES
11.50M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)27th PCTILE
$161,708/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
+1.63%
BOF rose +1.63% in after-hours trading — no identified catalyst in our coverage.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.37, 42% annual volatility, a -36% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−7.7%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−15.2%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
0.8×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-36.3%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
1.37
The market explains about 4.8% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
42%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure63
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
HighQuality / valueweak Piotroski F-score (3/8)TTM · -4
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as unknown, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
1.7%tail cap binds
max defensible size 1.7% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
18.6%1.3× its cohort · $1–$5 names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this $1–$5 names segment: 14.8%. This name reads 1.3× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 5.3% · tail cap 1.7% · category cap 13.7%. The tail cap binds, so 1.7% is the number (n=95,778). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 7.5% against a 25.7% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -36%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 42% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 1.37 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 1.7% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
2 logged
2 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on BOFTHIS NAME
2
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksPACKAGED FOODS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 5 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-71.9% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
KHCPeer$24.43-1.21%
GISPeer$36.32-0.93%
MKCPeer$48.72-1.97%
MKC-VPeer$49.32-4.79%
HRLPeer$20.83+0.34%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-16
Signal
2 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 17, 2026
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
Grocery and household goods are part of the same total.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day -1.6% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later +5.6% · Rose on 9 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Retail sales reports since Jul 16, 2023, BOF moved -1.6% on average on the day and was 5.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsLittle effect either way
Grocery and household spending barely changes with the job market.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +1.5% · Two weeks later +3.5% · Rose on 80 of 166 report days
Across the last 166 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 29, 2023, BOF moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 3.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 12 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Little effect either wayFood and household brands pass higher costs on to shoppers over time; little reaction on the day.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +4.2% · A week later +10.0% · Two weeks later +8.1% · Rose on 16 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, BOF moved +4.2% on average on the day and was 8.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionLittle effect either way
Everyday essentials sell either way.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +2.4% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +1.2% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, BOF moved +2.4% on average on the day and was 1.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 12 days.
PCE inflationLittle effect either wayFood and household brands pass higher costs on to shoppers over time; little reaction on the day.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +4.2% · A week later +10.0% · Two weeks later +8.1% · Rose on 16 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, BOF moved +4.2% on average on the day and was 8.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 7 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Little effect either wayLittle direct link.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +9.6% · Two weeks later +4.8% · Rose on 15 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, BOF moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 4.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
On the day +0.9% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +9.6% · Rose on 15 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Housing starts reports since Jul 21, 2023, BOF moved +0.9% on average on the day and was 9.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionLittle effect either way
Everyday essentials sell the same either way.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day -1.6% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later +5.6% · Rose on 9 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Industrial production reports since Jul 16, 2023, BOF moved -1.6% on average on the day and was 5.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Customer momentumSep 18, 2026
Customer momentumBOTTOM
-6.1%
The dependency-weighted trailing return of the customers this company discloses a revenue dependence on. Their tape leads its orders.
Lead-lag gapBEHIND CUSTOMERS
-1.4%
This company's own move less its customers' weighted move. A wide gap in either direction usually closes.
Disclosed customer dependencies
CustomerRevenue weightWindow returnLast filed
WMT77.0%-6.0%2024-06-24
COST59.0%-6.3%2024-06-24
Weights are as disclosed in the filings, so they describe the last reported period rather than today. Historical, point-in-time backtest of a cross-sectional screen (135 months, 2013-2026), gross of trading costs. The equal-weighted base effect is marginal (t 1.84); statistical significance relies on the dependency weighting (t 2.02). Validated on monthly rebalancing; served daily on the same 21-bar horizon. This is a research screen describing a group-level historical spread - not a forecast of any individual stock's return.
Connections5 links · 2 confirmed
Direct connections · 5 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
COST · Suppliersupplier+0.15%Confirmed · manual
WMT · Suppliersupplier-0.06%Confirmed · manual
ADM · Suppliersupplier-3.30%Rumored · manual
WMT · Customercustomer-0.06%Rumored · manual
PG · Competitorcompetitor-0.79%Rumored · manual
2 of 5 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.