Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) — Farm Products. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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ADM fair-value estimate

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Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 12:15 PM ETVol 1.28M · 3-mo avg 3.47M

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Companyloading…
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QTick signal
+6net
4 bull / 1 bear factors · moderate
Bull 8 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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$69.49
near a support level · Nov 9
$80–81
near a round-number price, the 50-day average and the 50-day average trade price · midpoint $80.82 · Nov 9
±$0.02
±0.0% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 13% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
In line
68% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.0× the usual rate
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 13% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
Trading volume38% above normal1.38× its 20-day average
Past year's range$55.58 – $88.75lowest to highest price
From its peak29.3% belowpeak $98.74, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk2.24 to 1$2.24 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$65.20the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$92.50price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)22.9oversold
Accounting warning signs2worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit12.3× next year13.7× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 53%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 13.4×
Cash it generates12.6%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 69% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 6 aligned — STRIKE
RSI 14
✓
22.9
oversold
vs 50-day
✓
$80.85
below the line
Bollinger
●
$68.18
no lower pierce · fires near $67.60
VWAP 20
✓
$76.22
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$69.49
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$92.50
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-10
MACD
Context●
-0.95
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.38×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
2.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.15
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
Next earnings
2027-02-02
in 56 sessions
Next dividend
USD 0.52
ex-date 2026-11-18