Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) — Farm Products. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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ADM fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 1:22 PM ETVol 3.14M · 3-mo avg 3.70M

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Companyloading…
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QTick signal
+5net
2 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 6 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 11/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$81.47
basis · s1 · as of 2026-09-24
Target exit zone
$88–90
center $89.06 · basis · bb upper + high 52w + round · as of 2026-09-24
Implied move · 1 wk
±$3.90
4.8% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.02× the norm · 67% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.71×
52-week range$55.58 – $88.75
Below high since 2015-17.1% · $98.74 high
Risk / reward1.48 : 1
Plan stop$76.35
Max pain$77.50 options cluster
RSI 1445.0 fires under 35 · fires near $75.67
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple14.3× fwd · 22.1× trailing
P/E vs its own past76th pctile · 13.4× median
Free cash flow yield10.8% · of market value

Trading in line with its own normal, price down 0.9%. Over the last 20 sessions, 62% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
45.0
fires under 35 · fires near $75.67
vs 50-day
✓
$82.31
below the line
Bollinger
●
$79.37
no lower pierce · fires near $78.88
VWAP 20
✓
$84.51
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$81.47
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$80.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-21
MACD
Context●
-0.69
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.71×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
3.1%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.56
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-03
in 27 sessions
Next dividend
2.56% yld
no ex-date on file