Deep dive · NYSE: BGSI
Boyd Group Services Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Boyd Group Services Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — BGSI trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $93.28 · -14.3%
200-day $124.64 · -35.9%
200-day $124.64 · -35.9%
Earnings
In 45 days
11 Nov 2026
beat 3–4 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=38,466
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=38,466
Dividend
0.56%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 0.81 · vol 58% ann.
worst drawdown -56%
worst drawdown -56%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does124 chars
Boyd Group Services Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates non-franchised collision repair centers in North America.
NYSE · USDAuto & Truck Dealerships
$79.95+0.77 · +0.97%CLOSED · vol 30.9K
52-week range↑ 3% off low · ↓ 56.3% off high
$77.85now $79.95$183.10
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jul 17, 2026
Survival & solvency
and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Distance to default (Merton)
3.1σTHIN
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
Balance sheetJul 17, 2026
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.64%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 5/9
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills3.14×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital1.00
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$488.12M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
84th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
75 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 2 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationWATCHM -3.01M-score in range (m5 7/8) · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.54long-term debt 0.54× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 5/9Piotroski F-score 5 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026POOR · 30/100
Business quality
1% net margin, 1% return on equity, +2% revenue growth, and capital earning 4% against a 7% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
30 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
0.6%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
46.4%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
4.2%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
1.1%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-2.9pp
Earns 4% on invested capital that costs about 7%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
3.3%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-7.1%
3 months-15.4%
6 months-36.7%
Year to date-49.4%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+2.4%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-28.1%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 25%
25 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 12, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
53%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 3–4 OF THE LAST 8
3 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 0 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias0.86× COHORT
Persistent
misses more often than it beats, by small margins
Next reportIN 45 DAYS
11 Nov 2026
Reports bmo · consensus EPS $0.91 · revenue 1.0 B
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
0.56%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
>2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.29 over 40 bars
Bullish engulfing · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.3%138,190
21d48%-0.4%65,044
63d48%-0.4%20,779
green body engulfs prior red
Piercing line · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.2%138,777
21d48%-0.2%65,406
63d49%-0.3%20,947
closes above prior midpoint
Morning star · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%-0.1%134,105
21d49%-0.1%63,238
63d49%-0.3%20,225
3-bar bottom reversal
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,247,184
21d50%0.0%586,365
63d51%+0.3%185,394
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%964,809
21d50%0.0%453,015
63d52%+0.3%142,744
three troughs ≈ equal
Rectangle
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%221,317
21d48%0.0%103,709
63d50%0.0%32,594
horizontal range
03
Price & timing
Price $79.95, RSI 39.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $93.28 · 200-day $124.64. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 225 sessions2025-11-03 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 0.97% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
39
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.3%
$3.43
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.17
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position22% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$85.39
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$81.61
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
11 Nov 2026 · in 45 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 19 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.20× segment rate · n=12,184
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 95% of cases (n=12,184).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.1σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$76 – $802 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $78.56, Low 52w at $77.85.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
26 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-4.62pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-17.54
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported177.7×
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth1.30
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.7×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.3×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay7.9×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off9.3×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value13.06%
2 of the 7 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of 52-week low + S1
$79.55In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetBb upper + sma 50 + vwap 50
$93.19$92–$94
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$72.69risk $6.86/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
1.99:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+16.7%
short-term trend line · $93.28
To the 200-day
+55.9%
primary trend line · $124.64
To the composer's target
+16.6%
Bb upper + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $93.19
To the composer's stop
-9.1%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $72.69
To the 52-week high
+129.0%
highest print of the past year · $183.10
To the 52-week low
-2.6%
lowest print of the past year · $77.85
A typical day (ATR)
$76.52 – $83.38
±$3.43 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $79.55 · stop $72.69 · target $93.19, a 1.99:1 ratio. The composer flagged: elevated distress, fair-value reference.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 84%.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-2BALANCED · 30d
0 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-2
latest EPS missed by 11%
Signal
0 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
83.7%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.3%
The share held by the people running the company.
Free float100% OF SHARES
27.77M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)56th PCTILE
$4.27M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayPEER COMOVE
+0.97%
BGSI rose +0.97% since the last close alongside 3 of 3 peers (median 1.51%) — a sector/market move, not company-specific.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.81, 58% annual volatility, a -56% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-56.5%IT CAN HALVE
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.81
The market explains about 5.5% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
58%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure62
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
MedEarningslatest EPS missed by 11%4 quarters · -2
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
1.6%tail cap binds
max defensible size 1.6% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
23.6%2.7× its cohort · mid-volume names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this mid-volume names segment: 8.7%. This name reads 2.7× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 12.4% · tail cap 1.6% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 1.6% is the number (n=109,931). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
MedLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 10.9% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — above the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -56%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 58% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.56% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 1.6% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
13 logged
13 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on BGSITHIS NAME
13
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksAUTO & TRUCK DEALERSHIPS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-167.2% per +1ppMEASURED
Measured against the 10-year yield: a one-point move in the yield has come with about a 167.2% move here, independent of company news.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
CVNAPeer$65.06+1.37%
PAGPeer$209.62+0.79%
ALTBPeer$10.000.00%
KMXPeer$57.21+1.51%
LADPeer$316.42+2.20%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2025-11-03
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 24, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Fewer paychecks means less spending at stores, restaurants and dealers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later -1.3% · Two weeks later -2.6% · Rose on 26 of 43 report days
Across the last 43 Initial jobless claims reports since Nov 13, 2025, BGSI moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 2.6% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedHigher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later -1.2% · Two weeks later -2.9% · Rose on 4 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Nov 28, 2025, BGSI moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 2.9% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Costlier car loans, mortgages and credit cards mean less consumer spending.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later -1.6% · Two weeks later -3.5% · Rose on 6 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 FOMC decision reports since Dec 1, 2025, BGSI moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 3.5% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Homebuilders and home-improvement chains sit in this sector.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later -0.7% · Rose on 6 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Housing starts reports since Nov 20, 2025, BGSI moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.7% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
A stronger economy means more consumer spending.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -1.3% · A week later -2.5% · Two weeks later -2.0% · Rose on 4 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Industrial production reports since Nov 15, 2025, BGSI moved -1.3% on average on the day and was 2.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expectedPaychecks are what people spend at stores, restaurants and car dealers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.4% · A week later -1.9% · Two weeks later -6.2% · Rose on 3 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Dec 5, 2025, BGSI moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 6.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedHigher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later -1.2% · Two weeks later -2.9% · Rose on 4 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 PCE inflation reports since Nov 28, 2025, BGSI moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 2.9% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expected
Higher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.6% · A week later -1.2% · Two weeks later -1.2% · Rose on 7 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Nov 12, 2025, BGSI moved -0.6% on average on the day and was 1.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
FDX · Suppliersupplier+2.26%Rumored · manual
AMZN · Customercustomer+0.12%Rumored · manual
TGT · Competitorcompetitor+0.83%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.