Deep dive · NasdaqCM: AGCC
Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — AGCC trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $14.69 · -10.4%
200-day $14.18 · -7.2%
200-day $14.18 · -7.2%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 1.18 · vol 43% ann.
worst drawdown -48%
worst drawdown -48%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does152 chars
Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in procurement, distribution, and sale of whiskies in Taiwan and internationally.
NasdaqCM · USDWineries & Distilleries
$13.16+0.62 · +4.94%AH · vol 25.0K
52-week range↑ 260% off low · ↓ 48.8% off high
$3.66now $13.16$25.73
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · 11:58 AM ET
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
01
Survival & solvency
and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 2/9CRITICAL
Piotroski F-score 2 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 18, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.53×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital1.29
Net cashcash on hand in excess of every borrowing$3.12M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
54th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
60 / 100
1 critical · 2 watch · 2 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 14.24Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationWATCHM 0.99M-score elevated · revenue more than doubled in the year · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.01long-term debt 0.01× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCRITICALF 2/9Piotroski F-score 2 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 2 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026FAIR · 49/100
Business quality
10% net margin, 6% return on equity, +145% revenue growth, and capital earning 14% against a 10% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
49 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
9.8%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
30.4%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
12.6%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
6.2%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
3.5pp
Earns 14% on invested capital that costs about 10%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Asset growth vs peersWATCH
96th pctile
The balance sheet grew +621% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-13.9%
3 months-19.6%
6 months-15.8%
Year to date+19.8%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+144.6%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 21%
21 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earnings
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — no measured print on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 18, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,260,321
21d48%0.0%593,656
63d47%-0.5%186,156
slope -0.11 over 40 bars
Tweezer bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d45%0.0%343,068
21d46%0.0%161,560
63d47%0.0%50,875
matching lows
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,212,095
21d51%+0.1%570,206
63d52%+0.4%180,573
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%971,828
21d52%+0.2%456,413
63d54%+0.5%144,062
three peaks ≈ equal
Falling wedge · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%429,088
21d50%+0.1%202,227
63d50%+0.2%64,074
falling & converging — bullish
Near support · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%533,688
21d53%+0.2%250,417
63d54%+0.4%78,400
testing recent support
Gap up · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%-1.0%179,739
21d43%-2.0%84,391
63d42%-4.5%26,470
opened 5.7% above prior close
03
Price & timing
Price $13.16, RSI 32.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $14.69 · 200-day $14.18. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 227 sessions2025-10-22 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 4.94% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
32
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±6.1%
$0.80
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.11
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position9% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$13.63
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$13.11
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Elevated1.07× segment rate · n=11,906
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 85% of cases (n=11,906).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-2.7σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$11 – $121 support
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $11.19.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
41 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-4.72pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareCASH BACKING
$0.16
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported335.3×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit49.2×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets31.0×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay351.4×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value-2.45%
5 of the 5 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 17, 2026
Entryzone of S1
$11.59Approach
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetDaily pivot + round + sma 200
$14.06$14–$14
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$9.99risk $1.59/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
1.55:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+11.6%
short-term trend line · $14.69
To the 200-day
+7.8%
primary trend line · $14.18
To the composer's target
+6.8%
Daily pivot + round + sma 200 · set Sep 17, 2026 · $14.06
To the composer's stop
-24.1%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 17, 2026 · $9.99
To the 52-week high
+95.5%
highest print of the past year · $25.73
To the 52-week low
-72.2%
lowest print of the past year · $3.66
A typical day (ATR)
$12.36 – $13.96
±$0.80 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $11.59 · stop $9.99 · target $14.06, a 1.55:1 ratio. The composer flagged: elevated distress, fair-value reference.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 0%, short interest is 0.72% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-2BALANCED · 30d
0 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
weak Piotroski F-score (2/9)
Signal
0 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
0.1%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
46.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
0.72%
Rising — shares short changed +4.4% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float36% OF SHARES
8.29M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)37th PCTILE
$558,607/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
+4.94%
AGCC rose +4.94% in after-hours trading — no identified catalyst in our coverage.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.18, 43% annual volatility, a -48% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-47.7%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
1.18
The market explains about 1.6% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
43%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure49
Buying pressure4
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
MedQuality / valueweak Piotroski F-score (2/9)TTM · -2
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
39.8%5.1× its cohort · thinnest-traded micro-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this thinnest-traded micro-caps segment: 7.8%. This name reads 5.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 27.2% · tail cap 2.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.2% is the number (n=92,785). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 3.4% against a 10.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
HighCash runwayAbout 8.4 quarters of cash at current burn ($16M cash against $7M a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 16.3% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -48%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 43% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.2% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
8 logged
8 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on AGCCTHIS NAME
8
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksWINERIES & DISTILLERIES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-81.4% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
DGEAFPeer$21.55-2.22%
DEOPeer$85.59-1.30%
BF-APeer$26.52-1.23%
BF-BPeer$25.94-2.11%
SNDLPeer$1.37+0.74%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2025-10-22
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 16, 2026
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
Grocery and household goods are part of the same total.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day -3.9% · A week later +7.0% · Two weeks later +2.7% · Rose on 1 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Retail sales reports since Nov 15, 2025, AGCC moved -3.9% on average on the day and was 2.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsLittle effect either way
Grocery and household spending barely changes with the job market.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day -0.7% · A week later +3.3% · Two weeks later +6.1% · Rose on 18 of 44 report days
Across the last 44 Initial jobless claims reports since Oct 30, 2025, AGCC moved -0.7% on average on the day and was 6.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 12 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Little effect either wayFood and household brands pass higher costs on to shoppers over time; little reaction on the day.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +2.7% · A week later +9.3% · Two weeks later +8.8% · Rose on 9 of 11 report days
Across the last 11 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Oct 29, 2025, AGCC moved +2.7% on average on the day and was 8.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 12 days.
PCE inflationLittle effect either wayFood and household brands pass higher costs on to shoppers over time; little reaction on the day.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +2.7% · A week later +9.3% · Two weeks later +8.8% · Rose on 9 of 11 report days
Across the last 11 PCE inflation reports since Oct 29, 2025, AGCC moved +2.7% on average on the day and was 8.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
FOMC decisionLittle effect either way
Everyday essentials sell either way.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +17.1% · Two weeks later +8.3% · Rose on 5 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 FOMC decision reports since Oct 31, 2025, AGCC moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 8.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
On the day +0.3% · A week later +2.1% · Two weeks later +13.2% · Rose on 4 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Housing starts reports since Nov 20, 2025, AGCC moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 13.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Industrial productionLittle effect either way
Everyday essentials sell the same either way.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day -3.9% · A week later +7.0% · Two weeks later +2.7% · Rose on 1 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Industrial production reports since Nov 15, 2025, AGCC moved -3.9% on average on the day and was 2.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 11 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Little effect either wayGrocery and household spending barely changes with the job market.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +1.2% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later +0.1% · Rose on 5 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Nov 5, 2025, AGCC moved +1.2% on average on the day and was 0.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
ADM · Suppliersupplier-3.30%Rumored · manual
WMT · Customercustomer-0.06%Rumored · manual
PG · Competitorcompetitor-0.79%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.