Deep dive · NYSE: AERO
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — AERO trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $15.27 · +1.0%
200-day $16.97 · -9.1%
200-day $16.97 · -9.1%
Earnings
In 32 days
20 Oct 2026
cohort P(beat) 61% · n=139,757
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 1.77 · vol 51% ann.
worst drawdown -46%
worst drawdown -46%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NYSE · USDAirlines
$15.42+0.62 · +4.19%CLOSED · vol 962.9K
52-week range↑ 26% off low · ↓ 33.1% off high
$12.26now $15.42$23.05
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · 1:39 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
01Ratios · Jun 22, 2026
Survival & solvency
and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Distance to default (Merton)
2.8σTHIN
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
Balance sheetJun 22, 2026
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.83%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 4/9
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills0.64×healthy >2
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$3.06B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
93rd pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE D
50 / 100
1 critical · 2 watch · 1 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ 0.73Altman-Z in the Distress · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.91M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageNAn/aLong-term debt / equity not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/9Piotroski F-score 4 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 2 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026POOR · 20/100
Business quality
7% net margin, -59% return on equity, -5% revenue growth, and capital earning 32% against a 10% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
20 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
6.6%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
27.6%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
15.7%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-59.2%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
22.4pp
Earns 32% on invested capital that costs about 10%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
67.1%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+3.3%
3 months-16.1%
6 months+11.2%
Year to date-32.6%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-4.6%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-94.6%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 26%
26 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsJul 13, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameTRAILING
1 of 3
Its own record against consensus. 3 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 1 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Next reportIN 32 DAYS
20 Oct 2026
Reports amc · consensus EPS $0.46 · revenue 28.1 B
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 18, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,473,236
21d49%0.0%691,862
63d51%+0.2%218,831
slope -0.04 over 40 bars
Rising wedge · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%225,880
21d49%0.0%106,279
63d50%0.0%34,043
rising & converging — bearish
Cup and handle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.3%694,881
21d47%-0.5%326,059
63d47%-1.1%104,116
U-base + small handle pullback
03
Price & timing
Price $15.42, RSI 53.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed2 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $15.27 · 200-day $16.97. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 216 sessions2025-11-06 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 4.19% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
53
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.2%
$0.65
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.05
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position72% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$14.86
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$14.23
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
20 Oct 2026 · in 32 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Elevated1.20× segment rate · n=12,125
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 95% of cases (n=12,125).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-0.1σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$14 – $153 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $14.56, S1 at $14.53, Pivot low at $14.44.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
88.91pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-1.92
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported1.1×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.4×
Price / bookBook value is negative — liabilities exceed assets — so there is no asset base for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay3.5×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off10.2×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value23.02%
0 of the 5 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. 1 is marked not meaningful because the figure it divides into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 17, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$14.73Approach
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetDaily pivot + round + sma 50 + vwap 50
$15.19$15–$15
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$13.42risk $1.30/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.36:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-1.0%
short-term trend line · $15.27
To the 200-day
+10.1%
primary trend line · $16.97
To the composer's target
-1.5%
Daily pivot + round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 17, 2026 · $15.19
To the composer's stop
-13.0%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 17, 2026 · $13.42
To the 52-week high
+49.5%
highest print of the past year · $23.05
To the 52-week low
-20.5%
lowest print of the past year · $12.26
A typical day (ATR)
$14.77 – $16.07
±$0.65 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $14.73 · stop $13.42 · target $15.19, a 0.36:1 ratio. The composer flagged: elevated distress, fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -4
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 70%, short interest is 0.11% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-4LEANING · 30d
0 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-2
latest EPS missed by 93%
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
Altman-Z in the distress zone
Signal
0 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -4 over 30d, a leaning reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
69.9%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
0.11%
Falling — shares short changed -5.2% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Dollar volume (ADV)56th PCTILE
$4.30M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Buying convictionSCORED
6 / 100
Blends how many executives bought, how large the trades were and how clustered in time — rather than raw ownership percentages.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayVOLUME
+4.19%
AERO rose +4.19% in after-hours trading on unusually heavy volume (3.3× its average).
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.77, 51% annual volatility, a -46% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-46.0%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
1.77
Moves about 1.8× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
51%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure59
Overheat31
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
MedEarningslatest EPS missed by 93%4 quarters · -2
MedQuality / valueAltman-Z in the distress zoneTTM · -2
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
15.3%1.8× its cohort · mid-volume names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this mid-volume names segment: 8.7%. This name reads 1.8× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 27.2% · tail cap 2.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.2% is the number (n=92,785). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 5.0% against a 10.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -46%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 51% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 1.77 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 32 days.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.2% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
8 logged
8 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on AEROTHIS NAME
8
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksAIRLINES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-268.8% per +1ppMEASURED
Measured against the 10-year yield: a one-point move in the yield has come with about a 268.8% move here, independent of company news.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
DALPeer$79.62+0.24%
UALPeer$108.71+0.99%
RYAAYPeer$53.51+0.02%
RYAOFPeer$29.57-22.18%
LUVPeer$40.98+1.59%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2025-11-06
Signal
1 of 2 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 16, 2026
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +2.7% · Two weeks later +3.0% · Rose on 6 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Industrial production reports since Nov 15, 2025, AERO moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 3.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Leisure travel drops with employment.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.5% · Two weeks later -0.4% · Rose on 24 of 42 report days
Across the last 42 Initial jobless claims reports since Nov 13, 2025, AERO moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 11 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedAirlines carry heavy debt and sell discretionary travel; hotter inflation hurts both.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day -1.7% · A week later -2.0% · Two weeks later -3.8% · Rose on 2 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Nov 28, 2025, AERO moved -1.7% on average on the day and was 3.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Building products and equipment makers.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.7% · A week later +3.1% · Two weeks later +0.6% · Rose on 6 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Housing starts reports since Nov 20, 2025, AERO moved +0.7% on average on the day and was 0.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 11 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedAirlines carry heavy debt and sell discretionary travel; hotter inflation hurts both.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day -1.7% · A week later -2.0% · Two weeks later -3.8% · Rose on 2 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 PCE inflation reports since Nov 28, 2025, AERO moved -1.7% on average on the day and was 3.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
Goods have to be made and shipped before they are sold.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +2.7% · Two weeks later +3.0% · Rose on 6 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Retail sales reports since Nov 15, 2025, AERO moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 3.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 6 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Usually helps when consumers feel better than expectedConfident people book holidays.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day +0.9% · A week later -1.0% · Two weeks later -4.2% · Rose on 6 of 9 report days
Across the last 9 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Nov 26, 2025, AERO moved +0.9% on average on the day and was 4.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Airlines carry heavy debt and sell discretionary travel; hotter inflation hurts both.
Typical for the Airlines industry
On the day -0.5% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +2.2% · Rose on 4 of 9 report days
Across the last 9 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Dec 13, 2025, AERO moved -0.5% on average on the day and was 2.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
CAT · Suppliersupplier+1.30%Rumored · manual
BA · Customercustomer+0.61%Rumored · manual
HON · Competitorcompetitor-0.01%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.