Deep dive · OTC Markets OTCPK: XELA
Exela Technologies, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Exela Technologies, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — XELA trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $0.00 · +10.3%
200-day $0.03 · -92.4%
200-day $0.03 · -92.4%
Valuation
0.0× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield -15,021.05%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta -97.67 · vol 277% ann.
worst drawdown -100%
worst drawdown -100%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
OTC Markets OTCPK · USDApplication Software
$0.000.00 · 0.00%CLOSED · vol 200
52-week range↑ 1,900% off low · ↓ 99.3% off high
$0.00now $0.00$0.29
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01
Survival & solvency
and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 6/9WATCH
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 27, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills0.46×healthy >2
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$1.09B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
100th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
83 / 100
0 critical · 1 watch · 2 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -3.81M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageNAn/aLong-term debt / equity not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 6/9Piotroski F-score 6 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 1 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026POOR · 29/100
Business quality
-12% net margin, 15% return on equity, -1% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
29 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-11.8%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
21.7%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
0.8%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
14.6%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+81.8%
3 months-81.8%
6 months-96.0%
Year to date-95.1%
1 year-100.0%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-1.2%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-94.5%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 2%
2 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earnings
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — no measured print on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohort
Data unavailableNo chart pattern is currently detected on this name, so there is no cohort base rate to show.
030.0× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $0.00, 0.0× forward earnings, RSI 49.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed2 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $0.00 · 200-day $0.03. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2022-04-05 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 0.00% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
49
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±18.2%
$0.00
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
0.00
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position58% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$0.00
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$0.01
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
2026-09-29 · tomorrowJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Elevated1.14× segment rate · n=1,964
Historically, penny names in this tape state saw a ≥20% pullback within 63 trading days in 96% of cases (n=1,964).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.3σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$0 – $02 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $0.00, Pivot low at $0.00.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-170.55
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/EAnalysts expect a loss over the next twelve months, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.0×
Price / bookBook value is negative — liabilities exceed assets — so there is no asset base for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay12.8×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value-15,021.05%
1 of the 3 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. 2 are marked not meaningful because the figure they divide into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThis security is delisted, so there is no live tape to compose entry, target and stop against.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 37%, short interest is 12.27% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Institutional ownership
37.4%RETAIL-HEAVY
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
The QTick signal
Data unavailableNo factor in the model scored for this name, so there is no net signal to show. The signal appears once the nightly factor run covers it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
23.7%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
12.27%
The share of the tradable float sold short.
Dollar volume (ADV)1st PCTILE
$5/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
0.00%
XELA was little changed +0.00% since the last close — no notable catalyst, and the move itself was modest.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta -97.67, 277% annual volatility, a -100% worst drawdown, and 1 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−86.9%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−99.3%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementHEAVY TAIL
2.2×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 2.2×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownIT CAN HALVE
-99.9%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
-97.67
The market explains about 1.9% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
277%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure57
Overheat23
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as penny, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
0.2%kelly cap binds
no defensible size - avoid
Avoid score6-month distress
87.5%3.4× its cohort · sub-$1 names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this sub-$1 names segment: 25.6%. This name reads 3.4× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 0.2% · tail cap 1.1% · category cap 11.1%. The kelly cap binds, so 0.2% is the number (n=34,705). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighCash runwayAbout 11.2 quarters of cash at current burn ($23M cash against $8M a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 16.3% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
1 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 1 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the kelly cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -100%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 277% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 0.2% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Calls on XELATHIS NAME
0
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksAPPLICATION SOFTWARE
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 1 connection.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+4,940.1% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
SAPGFPeer$209.92+0.68%
SAPPeer$210.68+0.75%
CRMPeer$234.02-1.76%
SHOPPeer$142.25-2.00%
NOWPeer$135.62-1.57%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2026-06-02
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystTOMORROW
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 7, 2026
Bank of Japan decisionUsually hurts when the Bank of Japan sounds more hawkish than expected
Investors who borrowed cheap yen to buy US tech stocks sell them first when Japan raises rates.
Typical for the Technology sector
No price history on file yet for XELA around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 2 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedSoftware companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
No price history on file yet for XELA around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Software companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
No price history on file yet for XELA around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Export-control or entity-list actionUsually hurts when export controls are tightened
Chip and equipment makers lose sales to the restricted country.
Typical for the Technology sector
No price history on file yet for XELA around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Software profits are mostly far in the future and worth less at higher rates.
Typical for the Application Software industry
No price history on file yet for XELA around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Software companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
No price history on file yet for XELA around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Korea 20-day exports (semiconductor line)Usually helps when Korea's chip exports come in stronger than expected
This is the earliest read on demand for chips and hardware; the companies that design chips learn their own sales from it.
Typical for the Technology sector
No price history on file yet for XELA around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
PCE inflation is due in 2 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedSoftware companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
No price history on file yet for XELA around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableThe supply-momentum read covered this name but produced no priced customers, so there is nothing to weight.
Connections1 link · 1 confirmed
Direct connections · 1 edge
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
CDXS · Suppliersupplier-3.65%Confirmed · 10K
1 of 1 edge is named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
What it depends on
CDXSSuppliersupplier
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.