BHP Group Limited (BHP) — $90.61 +0.22%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

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BHP fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 2.11M · Avg 2.70M
BHPBHP Group Limited$90.61+0.22%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

1 of 5 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 3. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
0net
0 bull / 0 bear factors · balanced
Bull 0 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
1 of 5 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on fileCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 0.9× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$90.16
basis · s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$93–94
center $93.83 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~83% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.3× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.78× · 2.11M vs 2.70M avg
52-week range$51.83 – $93.83
Below high since 2015-3.4% · $93.83 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.6
Plan stop$84.31
Max pain
RSI 1463.3 fires under 35 · fires near $73.36
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$90.61
$72.91 · -19.5%-19.5%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+5.0% · $95.15+5.0%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers1 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
63.3
fires under 35 · fires near $73.36
vs 50-day
$85.06
above the line · fires near $85.74
Bollinger
$79.08
no lower pierce · fires near $78.44
VWAP 20
$84.91
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $84.86
Entry level
$90.16
within 1% of model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
+0.83
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.78×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
0.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.27
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
17 Aug 2026 · after the bell
amc · in 6 days
Next dividend
2.94% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed