USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) — Industrial Metals & Mining. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

How we compute this

USARpeers & supply-chain relationships

USAR fair-value estimate

USAR earnings history

Qtick
Sign in
Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 9.99M · 3-mo avg 12.17M

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)

USARUSA Rare Earth, Inc.loading…
loading…
QTick signal
-4net
1 bull / 3 bear factors · leaning
Bull 1 pts·Bear 5 pts30d
loading…
Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 34/100 · as of 2026-09-24
Smart entry
$15.30
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-24
Target exit zone
$16.95
center $16.95 · basis · round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-24
Implied move · 1 wk
±$0.03
0.2% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.20× the norm · 95% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.06×
52-week range$11.45 – $43.98
Below high since 2023-65.0% · $43.98 high
Risk / reward0.76 : 1
Plan stop$13.13
Max pain$16.50 options cluster
RSI 1441.2 fires under 35 · fires near $13.59
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple546.2× fwd · trailing n.m.
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield-1.4% · burning cash

Last session traded in line with its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 65% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

Bearish tape — sell
RSI 14
●
41.2
fires under 35 · fires near $13.59
vs 50-day
✓
$16.88
below the line
Bollinger
●
$14.40
no lower pierce · fires near $14.18
VWAP 20
✓
$16.78
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$15.30
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$15.50
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-23
MACD
Context●
-0.05
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.06×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
16.1%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.98
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-05
in 30 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file