Deep dive · NasdaqGS: UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Upstart Holdings, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Event and Trend are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at +2 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.32, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings, analyst moves vote up. 2 of 5 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
insider flow, risk flags vote down. 3 of 5 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Event against Trend.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are short gamma, so swings get bigger both ways; separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −9.9%; and the binding position cap is 2.2% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean-0.64%
Frankfurt855-2.58%⏱MéxicoUPST*0.00%⏱ZurichUPST0.00%⏱StockholmUPSTUSD0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 4 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Wall Street rating
Hold
+68% to the average target
47% buy · 47% hold · 7% sell
median target $40
median target $40
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $28.05 · -15.1%
200-day $32.88 · -27.6%
200-day $32.88 · -27.6%
Earnings
In 38 days
3 Nov 2026 · options imply ±9.3%
beat 7–8 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 79% · n=35,343
cohort P(beat) 79% · n=35,343
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
2 critical
5 checks run, 0 clear
beta 2.94 · vol 42% ann.
worst drawdown -58%
worst drawdown -58%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does146 chars
Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States.
NasdaqGS · USDCredit Services
$23.81-0.83 · -3.37%CLOSED · vol 4.58M
52-week range↑ 0% off low · ↓ 58.9% off high
$23.72now $23.81$57.95
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jun 22, 2026
Survival & solvency
interest covered 1.2×, and 0 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 3/7CRITICAL
Piotroski F-score 3 of 7. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetJun 22, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Interest coverageoperating profit against the interest bill1.2×healthy >5
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
80th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldISSUING
0.00%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.00%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueELEVATED
12.6%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
SBC / operating cash flowRISING
72%
How much of the cash the business generates is being handed to employees as stock. The higher it runs, the more of a buyback is just offsetting it.
Diluted vs basic share gapOVERHANG
11.94%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE F
17 / 100
2 critical · 1 watch · 0 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageCRITICALLTD/E 2.17long-term debt 2.17× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCRITICALF 3/7Piotroski F-score 3 of 7 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 watch and 2 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026FAIR · 49/100
Business quality
5% net margin, 7% return on equity, +63% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
49 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
5.2%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
6.7%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Revenue (TTM)+63% YoY
$1.12B
Trailing twelve-month revenue from the latest filings.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-21.8%
3 months-32.0%
6 months-3.9%
Year to date-48.1%
1 year-58.2%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+62.8%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-49.7%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 15%
15 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 4, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
79%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 7–8 OF THE LAST 8
7 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
53%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±19.6%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missASYMMETRIC
+7.7% / -14.4%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
Sells the newsON THE PRINT
No
No habit of selling off on a good report in the measured window.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 26, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.18 over 40 bars
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,247,184
21d50%0.0%586,365
63d51%+0.3%185,394
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
03
Price & timing
Price $23.81, RSI 34, and dealers short gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $28.05 · 200-day $32.88. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Down 3.37% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
34
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.5%
$1.08
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.10
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position12% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$26.24
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$28.57
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
3 Nov 2026 · in 38 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 9 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
46 / 53cohort n=3,987
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Elevated1.12× segment rate · n=852
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 89% of cases (n=852).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.5σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$23 – $242 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Low 52w at $23.72, S1 at $23.45.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
80 / 100Falling knife
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 2 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 53% of cases (n=3,987) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-3.10pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported45.8×22nd of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth0.40
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit2.2×5yr median 4.5×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets2.9×
1 of the 4 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of 52-week low + S1
$23.69In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetSma 50 + vwap 50
$28.11$28–$28
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$21.54risk $2.15/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
2.05:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+17.8%
short-term trend line · $28.05
To the 200-day
+38.1%
primary trend line · $32.88
To the put wall
+26.0%
heaviest put open interest · $30.00
To the call wall
+26.0%
heaviest call open interest · $30.00
To the composer's target
+18.1%
Sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $28.11
To the composer's stop
-9.5%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $21.54
To the 52-week high
+143.4%
highest print of the past year · $57.95
To the 52-week low
-0.4%
lowest print of the past year · $23.72
Options-implied week ±9.3%
$21.60 – $26.02
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$22.73 – $24.89
±$1.08 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $23.69 · stop $21.54 · target $28.11, a 2.05:1 ratio. The composer flagged: elevated distress.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 26, 2026
Signal
Short gamma — moves get amplified.
Dealers hedge in the same direction as the move, so swings get bigger both ways rather than one. That argues for a smaller position size, not for a direction.
Options tapeLast snapshot before the 2026-09-18 expiry · Chain · Sep 26, 2026
Max pain+10.2%
$27.50
The strike where most open options would have expired worthless on the last snapshot. That expiry has passed; the next chain read replaces it.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.43
70% calls
30% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.25
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $2.31
±9.3%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$25.00PUT6,061
$27.50PUT4,482
$27.50CALL4,145
$22.50PUT3,381
$25.00CALL3,098
$28.50CALL2,167
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-09-18 (expired)CallsPutsMax pain $27.50
216
$29.50
71k
$29.00
632k
$28.50
1101k
$28.00
2514k
$27.50
4k1k
$27.00
3561k
$26.50
425931
$26.00
8492k
$25.50
6033k
$25.00
6k239
$24.00
89752
$23.00
17075
$22.50
3k38
$22.00
2543
$21.00
239482
$20.00
593
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$57.95+132.1%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$30.00+20.2%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$27.50+10.2%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$28.05+12.4%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$30.00+20.2%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 63%, short interest is 33.64% of float, and 13 analysts average $40.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+2BALANCED · 30d
2 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
+1
4 price-target raises in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+3
latest EPS beat by 3%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($4,830,554 across 11 sells) in 120d
Risk flagsDAILY · CONTEXT
-1
expensive valuation (bottom-quintile earnings yield)
Signal
2 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 26, 2026
Signal
3 of 5 families lean down.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.32 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street13 covering firms
Consensus rating13 ANALYSTS
Hold
47% buy · 47% hold · 7% sell, as a share of the 13 covering firms.
Median price target+68%
$40
$20now $24$61
A $20–$61 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$3.48
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
BTIG$43→60/100
Loop Capital$34↑57/100
Needham$42↑60/100
Piper Sandler$51↑57/100
BTIG$43→60/100
Citigroup$61↓53/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
63.2%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
12.9%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
33.64%
Rising — shares short changed +11.6% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float86% OF SHARES
82.19M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)87th PCTILE
$101.48M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Datta Sanjay · President, Capital& EnterpriseSell$3.2M—08 Sep
Gu Paul · Director, Chief Executive OfficerBuy$1.3M—10 Sep
Datta Sanjay · President, Capital& EnterpriseOption exercise$405,000—08 Sep
Datta Sanjay · President, Capital& EnterpriseOption exercisenot on file—08 Sep
Mirgorodskaya Natalia · See RemarksSell$27,417—25 Aug
Darling Scott · Chief Legal OfficerSell$216,216—20 Aug
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
-3.37%
UPST fell −3.37% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “How Investors May Respond To Upstart Holdings (UPST) Credit Union Lending Expansion - simplywall.st” (simplywall.st).
News tone · 7-day—
45 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 45 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
5h agoUpstart Lends Money It Doesn't Hold. What Does That Do to the Stock in a Downturn?Motley Foolnot scored
FriIs Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) a Bargain After 3.4% Drop? GF Val - GuruFocusGuruFocusnot scored
FriUpstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Dips While Market Gains: Key FactsZacksnot scored
FriUpstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Dips While Market Gains: Key Facts - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
ThuHow Investors May Respond To Upstart Holdings (UPST) Credit Union Lending Expansion - simplywall.stsimplywall.stnot scored
ThuUpstart Stock Reverses Higher After Hitting 52-Week Low - TradingViewTradingViewnot scored
ThuUPST Oct 2026 34.000 put (UPST261023P00034000) Interactive Stock Chart - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
ThuUPST Jan 2028 37.500 call (UPST280121C00037500) Interactive Stock Chart - ca.finance.yahoo.comca.finance.yahoo.comnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net selling.
2 of 6 disclosures are buys and 4 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0511 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 2.94, 42% annual volatility, a -58% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−9.9%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−20.3%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.3×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownIT CAN HALVE
-58.5%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
2.94
Moves about 2.9× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
42%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Falling knife
Selling pressure56
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: falling_knife — Still breaking lower without consolidation — a fresh swing-low printed and no basing pattern has formed yet.
What votes againstNightly
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($4,830,554 across 11 sells) in 120d120d · -1
LowRisk flagsexpensive valuation (bottom-quintile earnings yield)Daily · -1
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as unknown, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
27.3%9.2× its cohort · financials
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this financials segment: 3.0%. This name reads 9.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 27.2% · tail cap 2.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.2% is the number (n=92,785). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 2.8% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
HighCash runwayAbout 6.6 quarters of cash at current burn ($475M cash against $287M a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 23.5% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -58%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 42% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 2.94 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 38 days, and the chain prices ±9.3% for the week.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.2% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
25 logged
25 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on UPSTTHIS NAME
25
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksCREDIT SERVICES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+6.4% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
VPeer$367.38-0.16%
MAPeer$567.65+0.28%
AXPPeer$308.89+1.06%
COFPeer$200.20+1.83%
PYPLPeer$55.04+4.64%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 3 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 23, 2026
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
Card networks earn a fee on every purchase.
Typical for the Credit Services industry
On the day +0.9% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later -0.1% · Rose on 24 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, UPST moved +0.9% on average on the day and was 0.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Card lenders see more missed payments as unemployment rises.
Typical for the Credit Services industry
On the day -0.5% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.6% · Rose on 85 of 170 report days
Across the last 170 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, UPST moved -0.5% on average on the day and was 0.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
More mortgages get written.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.8% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 14 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, UPST moved -0.8% on average on the day and was 0.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Businesses borrow more when they are growing.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +0.9% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later -0.1% · Rose on 24 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, UPST moved +0.9% on average on the day and was 0.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expectedCard lenders see fewer missed payments when people are working.
Typical for the Credit Services industry
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +3.4% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, UPST moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 3.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 12 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Usually helps when consumers feel better than expectedConfident consumers borrow more.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +1.1% · A week later +2.0% · Two weeks later +1.9% · Rose on 26 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, UPST moved +1.1% on average on the day and was 1.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 5 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expectedCard lenders see fewer missed payments when people are working.
Typical for the Credit Services industry
On the day -0.3% · A week later +2.7% · Two weeks later +3.5% · Rose on 20 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, UPST moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 3.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Unemployment rate is due in 5 days.
Unemployment rateUsually hurts when unemployment rises more than expectedCard lenders see more missed payments as unemployment rises.
Typical for the Credit Services industry
On the day 0.0% · A week later +3.1% · Two weeks later +4.2% · Rose on 20 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Unemployment rate reports since Jul 6, 2023, UPST moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 4.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · 2 confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
CROSSRIVER · Partnerpartnernot pricedRumored · manual
AMZN · Suppliersupplier+0.12%Confirmed · manual
LC · Competitorcompetitor-3.18%Confirmed · manual
2 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.