PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) — $58.40 −1.14%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

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PYPL fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 11, 2026 · 11:47 AM ETVol 2.60M · Avg 16.51M
PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc.$58.40-1.14%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

1 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+8net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · moderate
Bull 9 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
1 of 6 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · GreyCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 1.0× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$58.71
basis · s1 · as of 2026-08-12
Target exit zone
$59.91
center $59.91 · basis · bb upper + call wall + daily pivot + round · as of 2026-08-12
Implied move · 1 wk
±$2.07
3.5% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Pullback risk
In line
~83% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.3× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Volume vs 20-day avg0.16× · 2.60M vs 16.51M avg
52-week range$38.46 – $79.22
Below high since 2015-81.3% · $315.46 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.6
Plan stop$55.90
Max pain$57.00 options cluster
RSI 1470.6 overbought
Forensic flags2 review
What-if price
$58.40
$49.06 · -16.0%-16.0%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+3.5% · $60.46+3.5%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
70.6
overbought
vs 50-day
$49.06
above the line · fires near $49.35
Bollinger
$54.80
no lower pierce · fires near $54.31
VWAP 20
$56.61
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $56.59
Entry level
$58.71
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$57.00
OI strike below · fires near $57.23
MACD
-0.22
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.16×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
7.1%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.36
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
27 Oct 2026
· in 75 days
Next dividend
USD 0.14
ex-date 2026-09-04
prices 15-min delayed