Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) — Credit Services. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 4.58M · 3-mo avg 4.26M

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)

UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+1net
2 bull / 3 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on file—PCE inflation days · not on fileRiskFalling knife · 80/100 · was 34 on Sep 21 · as of 2026-09-250/6Bottom watch · 0 of 6 confirmations
Smart entry
$23.69
basis · low 52w + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$28.11
center $28.11 · basis · sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$2.21
9.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
Elevated
1.12× the norm · 89% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: falling knife
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.04×
52-week range$23.72 – $57.95
Below high since 2020-94.6% · $438.48 high
Risk / reward1.89 : 1
Plan stop$21.54
Max pain$27.50 options cluster
RSI 1434.0 washed out
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple45.8× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own past22nd pctile · 63.7× median
Price / book2.85×

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 3.4%. Over the last 20 sessions, 60% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
✓
34.0
washed out
vs 50-day
✓
$28.05
below the line
Bollinger
●
$23.08
no lower pierce · fires near $22.86
VWAP 20
✓
$26.24
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$23.69
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$25.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-21
MACD
Context●
-0.10
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.04×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
33.6%
33.6% of float short — crowded
ATRStatic
$1.08
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-03
in 27 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file