Deep dive · NYSE: UAN
CVR Partners, LP stock analysis
Everything behind the call on CVR Partners, LP. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tapeOverseas lean0.00%
Zurich3CV0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 1 overseas venue listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-17
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $122.51 · +9.3%
200-day $110.79 · +20.9%
200-day $110.79 · +20.9%
Earnings
In 40 days
28 Oct 2026 · options imply ±8.9%
beat 5–6 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,184
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,184
Valuation
-20.6× forward
68th of its own five-year range
5yr median 10×
FCF yield 7.22%
FCF yield 7.22%
Dividend
10.81%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
1 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta -0.57 · vol 23% ann.
worst drawdown -20%
worst drawdown -20%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does129 chars
CVR Partners, LP, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States.
NYSE · USDAgricultural Inputs
$133.91-2.30 · -1.69%CLOSED · vol 34.4K
52-week range↑ 59% off low · ↓ 4.0% off high
$84.13now $133.91$139.50
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · time not on file
Tape 2026-09-18
Factors 2026-09-17
Tape 2026-09-18
Factors 2026-09-17
01Ratios · Aug 4, 2026
Survival & solvency
and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Distance to default (Merton)
5.7σCOMFORTABLE
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
Balance sheetAug 4, 2026
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.21%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreCLEAR
F 8/9
Piotroski F-score 8 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills2.21×healthy >2
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.66
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$504.86M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
25th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldISSUING
0.00%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.00%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
1.6%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
83 / 100
0 critical · 1 watch · 2 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.91M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageNAn/aLong-term debt / equity not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCLEARF 8/9Piotroski F-score 8 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 1 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026GOOD · 77/100
Business quality
16% net margin, +15% revenue growth, and capital earning 21% against a 4% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
77 / 100GOOD
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
16.3%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
27.0%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
21.4%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
16.3pp
Earns 21% on invested capital that costs about 4%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
-524.4%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Asset growth vs peersIN LINE
28th pctile
The balance sheet grew -5% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+7.6%
3 months+21.7%
6 months+4.8%
Year to date+31.9%
1 year+46.9%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+15.4%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+62.0%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+50.2%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 11%
90 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsNov 2, 2021
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
64%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
5 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
17%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
33%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±4.6%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missSYMMETRIC
+3.5% / -1.3%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
10.81%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
<1x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 18, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.1%1,125,547
21d47%-0.2%529,218
63d48%-0.9%169,468
slope +0.10 over 40 bars
Dark cloud cover · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%161,258
21d50%+0.1%75,948
63d50%+0.2%24,279
closes below prior midpoint
Tweezer top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%322,393
21d47%0.0%151,330
63d50%0.0%48,297
matching highs
0368TH OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $133.91, -20.6× forward earnings, RSI 66, and dealers long gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2003 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $122.51 · 200-day $110.79. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-16 → 2026-09-18
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 1.69% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)WARM
66
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±2.3%
$3.06
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.51
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position72% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$128.97
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$127.63
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
28 Oct 2026 · in 40 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 28 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
54 / 46cohort n=21,623
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Low0.73× segment rate · n=16,498
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 58% of cases (n=16,498).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
1.5σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$132 – $1351 support
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $133.40.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 0 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 46% of cases (n=21,623) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
6.69pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-47.77
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/EAnalysts expect a loss over the next twelve months, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful5yr median 10×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported8.5×68th of its 5yr range
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit2.3×5yr median 1.6×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay8.9×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off19.0×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value7.22%
0 of the 5 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. 1 is marked not meaningful because the figure it divides into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 17, 2026
Entryzone of S1
$134.93In zone deep
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
StopChandelier
$127.63risk $7.30/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-8.5%
short-term trend line · $122.51
To the 200-day
-17.3%
primary trend line · $110.79
To the put wall
+8.3%
heaviest put open interest · $145.00
To the call wall
+8.3%
heaviest call open interest · $145.00
To the composer's stop
-4.7%
Chandelier · set Sep 17, 2026 · $127.63
To the 52-week high
+4.2%
highest print of the past year · $139.50
To the 52-week low
-37.2%
lowest print of the past year · $84.13
Options-implied week ±8.9%
$122.02 – $145.80
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$130.85 – $136.97
±$3.06 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 19, 2026
Signal
Long gamma — moves get absorbed.
Dealers hedge against the move, which damps volatility around the current strikes. It makes the tape quieter without saying anything about which way it goes.
Options tapeLast snapshot before the 2026-08-21 expiry · Chain · Sep 19, 2026
Max pain-7.3%
$120.00
The strike where most open options would have expired worthless on the last snapshot. That expiry has passed; the next chain read replaces it.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.40
71% calls
29% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.40
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $11.50
±8.9%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$145.00PUT873
$145.00CALL872
$135.00CALL568
$125.00CALL457
$120.00CALL336
$140.00CALL209
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-08-21 (expired)CallsPutsMax pain $120.00
0
$165.00
280
$160.00
780
$155.00
1121
$150.00
3872
$145.00
873209
$140.00
1568
$135.00
3202
$130.00
6457
$125.00
40336
$120.00
19417
$115.00
71110
$110.00
25194
$105.00
5593
$100.00
105164
$95.00
55103
$90.00
35
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$139.50+7.8%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$145.00+12.0%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$120.00-7.3%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$122.51-5.4%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$145.00+12.0%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 54%, short interest is 2.82% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+2BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
+2
strong Piotroski F-score (8/9)
Signal
1 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
54.4%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.3%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
2.82%
Rising — shares short changed +2.8% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float97% OF SHARES
10.26M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)59th PCTILE
$6.11M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Roberts Richard J. Jr. · Interim CFOFilingnot on file—26 Jun
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayPEER COMOVE
-1.69%
UAN fell −1.69% since the last close alongside 4 of 4 peers (median 2.38%) — a sector/market move, not company-specific.
News tone · 7-day—
44 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 44 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
MonEPF services on UMANG App: Check how to generate and activate UAN, check balance and more - The Economic TimesThe Economic Timesnot scored
SunDiscipline and Rules-Based Execution in UAN Response - Stock Traders DailyStock Traders Dailynot scored
Sep 9CVR Partners: Middle East Supply Shocks And Domestic Cost Advantages Make This 12%+ Yield A Compelling Buy - Seeking AlphaSeeking Alphanot scored
Sep 8How to generate, activate and authenticate EPFO UAN on UMANG platform - Business StandardBusiness Standardnot scored
Sep 7EPFO UAN Services: Aadhaar face authentication, EPF balance, passbook and KYC now available on UMANG app - Here's how to do - ET NowET Nownot scored
Sep 7EPFO UAN services go mobile: Generate, activate and authenticate your account on UMANG - Business TodayBusiness Todaynot scored
Sep 6UAN, passbook, claim status and more: Labour Ministry lists 5 key EPFO services members can access on the Umang app - LivemintLivemintnot scored
Sep 5EPFO: Check EPF balance; download passbook, activate UAN & more; 5 EPF services available on Umang app - The Economic TimesThe Economic Timesnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
059 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta -0.57, 23% annual volatility, a -20% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−6.3%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−12.7%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.4×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.4×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-19.7%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
-0.57
The market explains about 3.2% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
23%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure49
Overheat31
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
1.5%0.2× its cohort · mid-volume names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this mid-volume names segment: 8.7%. This name reads 0.2× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 55.0% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 3.2% is the number (n=140,733). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 3.0% against a 10.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 40 days, and the chain prices ±8.9% for the week.
Our track record9 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
25 logged
25 calls logged on this name, 9 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on UANTHIS NAME
25
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 9.
0610-K disclosed linksAGRICULTURAL INPUTS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 2 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+60.9% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
CTVAPeer$80.53-1.23%
NTRPeer$77.09-2.32%
CFCompetitor$127.70-4.57%
YRAIFPeer$48.960.00%
YARIYPeer$23.93-2.45%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 15, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
A slowing economy uses less steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +1.2% · Rose on 95 of 169 report days
Across the last 169 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, UAN moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 1.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 11 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expectedMiners and chemical makers sell raw materials whose prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +0.7% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, UAN moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Lumber, cement and gravel.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.5% · Two weeks later +0.5% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, UAN moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
More building and manufacturing means more demand for raw materials.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +1.0% · Two weeks later +1.2% · Rose on 23 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, UAN moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 1.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 11 days.
PCE inflationUsually helps when inflation runs hotter than expectedMiners and chemical makers sell raw materials whose prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +0.7% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, UAN moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually helps when producer prices run hotter than expected
Miners and chemical makers sell raw materials whose prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +0.9% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, UAN moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expected
Miners and chemical makers sell raw materials whose prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +1.0% · Rose on 19 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, UAN moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
A hawkish Fed lifts the dollar, which makes dollar-priced metals dearer for foreign buyers.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +1.0% · Rose on 22 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, UAN moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 1.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections2 links · 2 confirmed
Direct connections · 2 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
CVI · Suppliersupplier-0.83%Confirmed · manual
CF · Competitorcompetitor-4.57%Confirmed · manual
2 of 2 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.