CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) — $118.37 −2.56%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

CFpeers & supply-chain relationships

CF fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated not on fileVol 338.0K · Avg 2.72M
CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc.$118.37-2.56%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

2 of 5 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 3. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+3net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
2 of 5 aligned — closing in
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on filePCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$120.04
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$140–143
center $141.38 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~83% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.3× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.12× · 338.0K vs 2.72M avg
52-week range$75.42 – $141.96
Below high since 2015-14.4% · $141.96 high
Risk / reward1 : 2.5
Plan stop$109.23
Max pain
RSI 1453.9 fires under 35 · fires near $103.35
Forensic flags2 review
What-if price
$118.37
$102.76 · -13.2%-13.2%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+8.2% · $128.03+8.2%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers2 of 5 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
53.9
fires under 35 · fires near $103.35
vs 50-day
$114.60
above the line · fires near $115.64
Bollinger
$113.76
no lower pierce · fires near $112.61
VWAP 20
$120.99
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$120.04
below the model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
-1.23
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.12×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
7.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$4.83
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
4 Nov 2026 · after the bell
amc · in 84 days
Next dividend
2.03% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed