Deep dive · NasdaqCM: SNDL
SNDL Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on SNDL Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tapeOverseas lean0.00%
FrankfurtVY40.00%⏱TaiwanSNDL0.00%⏱TorontoSNDL0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 3 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-17
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $1.31 · +4.9%
200-day $1.47 · -6.7%
200-day $1.47 · -6.7%
Earnings
In 46 days
3 Nov 2026
beat 3–4 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=38,388
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=38,388
Valuation
45.7× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield 16.10%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 0.98 · vol 38% ann.
worst drawdown -57%
worst drawdown -57%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NasdaqCM · USDWineries & Distilleries
$1.37+0.01 · +0.74%CLOSED · vol 2.21M
52-week range↑ 18% off low · ↓ 52.6% off high
$1.17now $1.37$2.89
After-hours
$1.36-0.73%
Sep 18, 2026 · 7:59 PM ET
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-17
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-17
01
Survival & solvency
and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 5/9WATCH
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 18, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills4.88×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.15
Net cashcash on hand in excess of every borrowing$82.31M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
74th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
60 / 100
1 critical · 2 watch · 2 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ 0.63Altman-Z in the Distress · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.85M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.12long-term debt 0.12× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 5/9Piotroski F-score 5 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 2 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026POOR · 35/100
Business quality
-2% net margin, -1% return on equity, +3% revenue growth, and capital earning 0% against a 8% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
35 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-1.7%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
27.3%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
-0.5%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-1.4%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-8.4pp
Earns 0% on invested capital that costs about 8%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+3.8%
3 months-4.2%
6 months-2.2%
Year to date-21.8%
1 year-45.6%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+2.8%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-50.8%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 40%
40 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsApr 29, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
53%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 3–4 OF THE LAST 8
3 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
83%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
58%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±5.4%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 18, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.1%1,125,547
21d47%-0.2%529,218
63d48%-0.9%169,468
slope +0.15 over 40 bars
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,242,409
21d50%0.0%584,002
63d51%+0.2%184,289
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Cup and handle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.3%694,881
21d47%-0.5%326,059
63d47%-1.1%104,116
U-base + small handle pullback
0345.7× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $1.37, 45.7× forward earnings, RSI 51.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed1 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $1.31 · 200-day $1.47. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-13 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 0.74% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
51
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±3.6%
$0.05
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.01
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position46% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$1.37
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$1.31
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
3 Nov 2026 · in 46 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 3 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.07× segment rate · n=11,906
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 85% of cases (n=11,906).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-0.5σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$1 – $13 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $1.35, S1 at $1.34, Pivot low at $1.33.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Net cash per shareCASH BACKING
$0.31
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months45.7×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.4×5yr median 0.8×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets0.3×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay5.8×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off4.8×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value16.10%
1 of the 6 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 17, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$1.35In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
Target52-week high
$2.89$3–$3
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$1.25risk $0.10/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
15.37:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-4.7%
short-term trend line · $1.31
To the 200-day
+7.2%
primary trend line · $1.47
To the composer's target
+110.9%
52-week high · set Sep 17, 2026 · $2.89
To the composer's stop
-8.5%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 17, 2026 · $1.25
To the 52-week high
+110.9%
highest print of the past year · $2.89
To the 52-week low
-15.0%
lowest print of the past year · $1.17
A typical day (ATR)
$1.32 – $1.42
±$0.05 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $1.35 · stop $1.25 · target $2.89, a 15.37:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, far target.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -4
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 21%, short interest is 0.81% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-4LEANING · 30d
0 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-2
latest EPS missed by a wide margin (low EPS base)
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
Altman-Z in the distress zone
Signal
0 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -4 over 30d, a leaning reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
21.4%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
1.7%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
0.81%
Falling — shares short changed -14.0% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float86% OF SHARES
225.78M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)50th PCTILE
$2.42M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
+0.74%
SNDL rose +0.74% since the last close — no identified catalyst in our coverage.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.98, 38% annual volatility, a -57% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-57.4%IT CAN HALVE
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.98
The market explains about 4.5% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
38%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure49
Overheat13
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
MedEarningslatest EPS missed by a wide margin (low EPS base)4 quarters · -2
MedQuality / valueAltman-Z in the distress zoneTTM · -2
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as unknown, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
18.6%1.3× its cohort · $1–$5 names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this $1–$5 names segment: 14.8%. This name reads 1.3× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 27.2% · tail cap 2.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.2% is the number (n=92,785). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 6.5% against a 10.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
MedPost-earnings driftMove already priced: after jumps this large, measured drift edge is zero.Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -57%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 38% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.2% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
8 logged
8 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on SNDLTHIS NAME
8
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksWINERIES & DISTILLERIES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-38.3% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
DGEAFPeer$21.55-4.94%
DEOPeer$85.59-1.30%
BF-APeer$26.52-1.23%
BF-BPeer$25.94-2.11%
AGCCPeer$13.16+4.94%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 14, 2026
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
Grocery and household goods are part of the same total.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later -0.5% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, SNDL moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 0.5% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsLittle effect either way
Grocery and household spending barely changes with the job market.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 76 of 169 report days
Across the last 169 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, SNDL moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +0.5% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, SNDL moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionLittle effect either way
Everyday essentials sell the same either way.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later -0.5% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, SNDL moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 0.5% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Little effect either way
Food and household brands pass higher costs on to shoppers over time; little reaction on the day.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later -0.9% · Two weeks later -0.3% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, SNDL moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 6 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Little effect either wayLittle direct link.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later +1.8% · Two weeks later +1.4% · Rose on 16 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, SNDL moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 1.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 11 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Little effect either wayFood and household brands pass higher costs on to shoppers over time; little reaction on the day.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later +1.8% · Rose on 12 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, SNDL moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Little effect either way
Food and household brands pass higher costs on to shoppers over time; little reaction on the day.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later -0.6% · Two weeks later -0.2% · Rose on 19 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, SNDL moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
IQV · Partnerpartner-1.12%Rumored · manual
AMZN · Suppliersupplier+1.00%Rumored · manual
PFE · Competitorcompetitor+0.07%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.