Matador Resources Company (MTDR) — Oil & Gas Exploration & Production. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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MTDR fair-value estimate

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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 10:21 AM ETVol 339.0K · 3-mo avg 1.98M

Matador Resources Company (MTDR)

MTDRMatador Resources Companyloading…
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QTick signal
+4net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 7 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressPCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$57.38
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-17
Target exit zone
$65–66
center $65.88 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$5.20
9.1% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.07× the norm · 85% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.76×
52-week range$37.14 – $66.84
Below high since 2015-23.7% · $75.54 high
Risk / reward1.86 : 1
Plan stop$52.80
Max pain$52.50 options cluster
RSI 1450.1 fires under 35 · fires near $49.76
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple6.3× fwd · 9.8× trailing
P/E vs its own past91st pctile · 7.6× median
Free cash flow yield3.4% · of market value

Trading in line with its own normal, price down 0.7%. Over the last 20 sessions, 50% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
50.1
fires under 35 · fires near $49.76
vs 50-day
$54.35
above the line · fires near $54.81
Bollinger
$54.78
no lower pierce · fires near $54.18
VWAP 20
$59.02
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$57.38
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$55.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-16
MACD
Context
-0.51
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.76×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
11.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.96
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-10-27
in 27 sessions
Next dividend
2.62% yld
no ex-date on file