Deep dive · NYSE: MT
ArcelorMittal S.A. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on ArcelorMittal S.A. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — MT trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $71.73 · +1.1%
200-day $60.50 · +19.9%
200-day $60.50 · +19.9%
Earnings
In 48 days
5 Nov 2026
beat 5–6 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,184
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,184
Dividend
0.83%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
3 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 2.07 · vol 32% ann.
worst drawdown -29%
worst drawdown -29%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does144 chars
ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa.
NYSE · USDSteel Production
$72.53-2.65 · -3.52%CLOSED · vol 1.35M
52-week range↑ 106% off low · ↓ 9.0% off high
$35.14now $72.53$79.68
After-hours
$72.530.00%
Sep 18, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
01Ratios · Jun 22, 2026
Survival & solvency
and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Distance to default (Merton)
6.8σCOMFORTABLE
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
Balance sheetJun 22, 2026
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.12%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 6/9
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.36×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.25
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$8.02B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
6th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
70 / 100
0 critical · 3 watch · 2 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 2.35Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.41M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.17long-term debt 0.17× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 6/9Piotroski F-score 6 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 3 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026FAIR · 42/100
Business quality
5% net margin, 6% return on equity, -2% revenue growth, and capital earning 2% against a 12% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
42 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
5.1%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
7.1%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
2.4%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
5.8%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-9.7pp
Earns 2% on invested capital that costs about 12%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
-105.2%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+0.8%
3 months+18.6%
6 months+50.4%
Year to date+59.3%
1 year+118.5%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-1.7%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+143.2%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+110.0%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 19%
81 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsJul 30, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
64%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
5 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Beat and still fellSHARE OF ALL PRINTS
11%
Of every report in the window, this share both beat consensus and closed lower on the day.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — 9 measured prints on file, distribution not computed.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias1.05× COHORT
Persistent
beats most quarters, by thin margins
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
0.83%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
1-2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 18, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.1%1,125,547
21d47%-0.2%529,218
63d48%-0.9%169,468
slope +0.11 over 40 bars
Near support · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%533,688
21d53%+0.2%250,417
63d54%+0.4%78,400
testing recent support
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%757,951
21d45%0.0%355,725
63d47%0.0%112,112
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
03
Price & timing
Price $72.53, RSI 47.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2002 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $71.73 · 200-day $60.50. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-13 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 3.52% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
47
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±2.8%
$2.02
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.41
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position23% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$74.32
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$73.63
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
5 Nov 2026 · in 48 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 3 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.02× segment rate · n=7,908
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 68% of cases (n=7,908).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.4σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$71 – $752 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $74.49, Pivot low at $72.39.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
32 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-1.84pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-10.35
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported30.5×51st of its 5yr range
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.9×5yr median 0.3×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.0×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay8.9×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off134.2×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value0.85%
3 of the 6 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 17, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$74.80In zone deep
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
Target52-week high + round
$79.68$79–$80
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$70.77risk $4.03/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
1.21:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-1.1%
short-term trend line · $71.73
To the 200-day
-16.6%
primary trend line · $60.50
To the composer's target
+9.9%
52-week high + round · set Sep 17, 2026 · $79.68
To the composer's stop
-2.4%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 17, 2026 · $70.77
To the 52-week high
+9.9%
highest print of the past year · $79.68
To the 52-week low
-51.6%
lowest print of the past year · $35.14
A typical day (ATR)
$70.51 – $74.55
±$2.02 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $74.80 · stop $70.77 · target $79.68, a 1.21:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -1
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 5%, short interest is 0.36% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-1BALANCED · 30d
0 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-1
latest EPS missed by 18%
Signal
0 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
5.5%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
0.36%
Falling — shares short changed -40.2% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float55% OF SHARES
420.24M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)87th PCTILE
$111.02M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayPEER COMOVE
-3.52%
MT fell −3.52% since the last close alongside 4 of 4 peers (median 3.62%) — a sector/market move, not company-specific.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Evenly split.
3 of 6 disclosures are buys and 3 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0513 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 2.07, 32% annual volatility, a -29% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−6.2%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−12.2%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.2×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-28.8%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
2.07
Moves about 2.1× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
32%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure46
Buying pressure1
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
LowEarningslatest EPS missed by 18%4 quarters · -1
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.3%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.3% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
0.6%0.1× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 44.3% · tail cap 3.3% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.4% is the number (n=25,762). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 3.6% against a 8.7% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.83% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 2.07 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
Our track record13 resolved
Overall hit-rate13 RESOLVED
0%
Every call is timestamped and graded when it resolves.
Calls on MT0 CORRECT
25
This name's own record, shown separately because a handful of calls is a small sample against the overall total.
0610-K disclosed linksSTEEL PRODUCTION
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 8 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-8.5% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
NUEPeer$248.38-6.32%
AMSYFPeer$66.450.00%
STLDPeer$235.26-4.11%
RSPeer$390.15-2.60%
PKXPeer$58.21-3.13%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Inflation (CPI) reactionn=39
1.08×
On these days it moves about 1.1× the market, regardless of company news.
Jobs report reactionn=40
0.78×
On these days it moves about 0.8× the market, regardless of company news.
Fed decision (FOMC) reactionn=39
1.00×
On these days it moves about 1.0× the market, regardless of company news.
Inflation (PCE) reactionn=39
0.85×
On these days it moves about 0.9× the market, regardless of company news.
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 18, 2026
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Busier factories use more steel.
Typical for the Steel Production industry
On the day +0.5% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 23 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, MT moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
A slowing economy uses less steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +1.4% · Rose on 82 of 168 report days
Across the last 168 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, MT moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Lumber, cement and gravel.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +1.0% · Two weeks later +1.0% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, MT moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 1.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually helps when producer prices run hotter than expected
Miners and chemical makers sell raw materials whose prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +1.0% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, MT moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 11 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expectedMiners and chemical makers sell raw materials whose prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +2.2% · Rose on 14 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, MT moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 2.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expected
Miners and chemical makers sell raw materials whose prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 17 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, MT moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
A hawkish Fed lifts the dollar, which makes dollar-priced metals dearer for foreign buyers.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +1.4% · Two weeks later +2.2% · Rose on 20 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, MT moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 2.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expected
Miners and chemical makers sell raw materials whose prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 17 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, MT moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableThe supply-momentum read covered this name but produced no priced customers, so there is nothing to weight.
Connections8 links · 2 confirmed
Direct connections · 8 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
BEKAY · Suppliersuppliernot pricedRumored · manual
BEKSF · Suppliersuppliernot pricedRumored · manual
RMGNF · Customercustomernot pricedRumored · manual
RHHMY · Customercustomernot pricedRumored · manual
SXC · Suppliersupplier-1.76%Confirmed · 10K
HCC · Suppliersupplier-4.22%Confirmed · 10K
XOM · Customercustomer+0.17%Rumored · manual
GE · Customercustomer+0.26%Rumored · manual
2 of 8 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.