Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) — Steel Production. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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STLDpeers & supply-chain relationships

STLD fair-value estimate

STLD earnings history

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 970.8K · 3-mo avg 1.07M

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD)

STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+2net
3 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 5 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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$221.79
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 6
$235–241
near a round-number price, the 50-day average and the 50-day average trade price · midpoint $238.21 · Nov 6
±$17.01
±7.6% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 6% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
In line
82% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (0/6 bottoming checks met)
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 6% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
Trading volume10% below normal0.90× its 20-day average
Past year's range$150.22 – $288.74lowest to highest price
From its peak22.8% belowpeak $288.74, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.63 to 1$0.63 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$198.71the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$240.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)35.7fires under 35 · fires near $222.16
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit10.4× next year16.5× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 70%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 8.6×
Cash it generates1.6%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.5%. Over the last 20 sessions, 52% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

4 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
35.7
fires under 35 · fires near $222.16
vs 50-day
✓
$238.13
below the line
Bollinger
✓
$226.25
lower-band pierce
VWAP 20
✓
$241.67
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$221.79
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$155.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-06
MACD
Context●
-2.58
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.90×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
2.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$11.54
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-01-25
in 52 sessions · session not on file
Next dividend
0.95% yld
no ex-date on file