MP Materials Corp. (MP) — Industrial Metals & Mining. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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MPpeers & supply-chain relationships

MP fair-value estimate

MP earnings history

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 10:47 AM ETVol 2.48M · 3-mo avg 5.70M

MP Materials Corp. (MP)

MPMP Materials Corp.loading…
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QTick signal
+1net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafePCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 48/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$49.13
basis · s1 · as of 2026-09-17 · price is 3.4% inside the zone below it
Target exit zone
$50–51
center $50.55 · basis · daily pivot + round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$4.17
8.8% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.20× the norm · 95% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (0/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.79×
52-week range$37.81 – $100.25
Below high since 2020-50.7% · $100.25 high
Risk / reward0.29 : 1
Plan stop$44.19
Max pain$55.00 options cluster
RSI 1440.0 fires under 35 · fires near $44.30
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple55.2× fwd · trailing n.m.
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield-3.8% · burning cash

Trading in line with its own normal, price down 3.8%. Over the last 20 sessions, 63% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

4 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
40.0
fires under 35 · fires near $44.30
vs 50-day
$51.00
below the line
Bollinger
$47.41
no lower pierce · fires near $47.38
VWAP 20
$55.06
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$49.13
below the model level
Put wall
$55.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-16
MACD
Context
-0.93
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.79×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
22.3%
22.3% of float short — crowded
ATRStatic
$2.47
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-11-05
in 34 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file