Deep dive · NasdaqCM: MARA
MARA Holdings, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on MARA Holdings, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
0 factors lean up and 4 lean down and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at -6 over 30d, a moderate reading on a dispersion of 0.00.
Leans down · and why
analyst moves, earnings, insider flow vote down. 5 of 5 families lean the other way.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are long gamma, so their hedging absorbs moves rather than amplifying them; separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −16.4%.
Global tapeOverseas lean-0.29%
FrankfurtM44-6.40%⏱MéxicoMARA*+5.25%⏱ZurichMARA0.00%⏱StockholmMARAUSD0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 4 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Wall Street rating
Hold
+36% to the average target
62% buy · 31% hold · 8% sell
median target $18
median target $18
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $11.19 · +18.3%
200-day $10.95 · +20.9%
200-day $10.95 · +20.9%
Earnings
In 46 days
4 Nov 2026 · options imply ±11.3%
beat 5–6 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,182
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,182
Valuation
-63.0× forward
Against consensus earnings
5yr median 10×
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
2 critical
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 3.41 · vol 100% ann.
worst drawdown -71%
worst drawdown -71%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NasdaqCM · USDCapital Markets
$13.24+1.60 · +13.75%CLOSED · vol 84.15M
52-week range↑ 99% off low · ↓ 43.5% off high
$6.66now $13.24$23.45
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-18
Factors 2026-09-18
Tape 2026-09-18
Factors 2026-09-18
01Ratios · Jul 6, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 0.1 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
0.10DISTRESS ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 6, 2026
Piotroski F-scoreCRITICAL
F 2/9
Piotroski F-score 2 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.49
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
96th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldISSUING
-10.23%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.92%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueELEVATED
19.0%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE F
38 / 100
2 critical · 1 watch · 1 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ 0.10Altman-Z in the distress zone · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not applicable to this sector · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.92long-term debt 0.92× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCRITICALF 2/9Piotroski F-score 2 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 1 watch and 2 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 19, 2026POOR · 29/100
Business quality
-145% net margin, -38% return on equity, +38% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
29 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 19, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-144.6%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
80.3%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
-90.6%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-37.8%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Revenue (TTM)+38% YoY
$867.82M
Trailing twelve-month revenue from the latest filings.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+18.7%
3 months-10.8%
6 months+56.5%
Year to date+33.6%
1 year-28.4%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+38.2%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-314.5%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-44.3%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 40%
40 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 5, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
64%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
5 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
70%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
23%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±5.8%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 19, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,473,236
21d49%0.0%691,862
63d51%+0.2%218,831
slope +0.02 over 40 bars
Hanging man · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.2%161,334
21d48%-0.1%75,917
63d49%-0.3%24,252
long lower shadow, small body at top
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,212,095
21d51%+0.1%570,206
63d52%+0.4%180,573
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Inverse head and shoulders · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%491,675
21d50%0.0%231,291
63d51%+0.1%73,497
low below two ≈-equal shoulders — bullish reversal
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%643,427
21d51%+0.2%302,356
63d53%+0.5%95,587
flat resistance, rising support
Cup and handle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.3%694,881
21d47%-0.5%326,059
63d47%-1.1%104,116
U-base + small handle pullback
Gap up · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%-1.0%179,739
21d43%-2.0%84,391
63d42%-4.5%26,470
opened 3.8% above prior close
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%757,951
21d45%0.0%355,725
63d47%0.0%112,112
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
03-63.0× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $13.24, -63.0× forward earnings, RSI 63, and dealers long gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2003 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $11.19 · 200-day $10.95. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-16 → 2026-09-18
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Up 13.75% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)WARM
63
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±6.3%
$0.83
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.15
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position100% OF RANGE
Upper band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$11.51
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$10.82
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
4 Nov 2026 · in 46 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 12 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 6 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
45 / 55cohort n=3,955
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.00× segment rate · n=1,559
Historically, crypto names in this tape state saw a ≥20% pullback within 63 trading days in 83% of cases (n=1,559).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
2.9σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$11 – $133 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $12.42, Pivot low at $11.84, Pivot low at $11.59.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Hot buying
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 2 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 55% of cases (n=3,955) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Multiples
Forward P/EAnalysts expect a loss over the next twelve months, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful5yr median 10×
Trailing P/EThe company lost money over the trailing year, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit5.6×5yr median 8.5×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.5×
0 of the 2 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. 2 are marked not meaningful because the figure they divide into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 18, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$12.84Approach
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
Target52-week high
$23.45$23–$24
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
StopChandelier
$10.82risk $2.02/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
5.26:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-15.5%
short-term trend line · $11.19
To the 200-day
-17.3%
primary trend line · $10.95
To the put wall
-28.2%
heaviest put open interest · $9.50
To the call wall
-9.4%
heaviest call open interest · $12.00
To the composer's target
+77.1%
52-week high · set Sep 18, 2026 · $23.45
To the composer's stop
-18.3%
Chandelier · set Sep 18, 2026 · $10.82
To the 52-week high
+77.1%
highest print of the past year · $23.45
To the 52-week low
-49.7%
lowest print of the past year · $6.66
Options-implied week ±11.3%
$11.74 – $14.74
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$12.41 – $14.07
±$0.83 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $12.84 · stop $10.82 · target $23.45, a 5.26:1 ratio. The composer flagged: elevated distress, far target.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 19, 2026
Signal
Long gamma — moves get absorbed.
Dealers hedge against the move, which damps volatility around the current strikes. It makes the tape quieter without saying anything about which way it goes.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-09-25 · Chain · Sep 19, 2026
Max pain-16.9%
$11.00
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.58
63% calls
37% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.20
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $1.50
±11.3%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$12.00CALL12,237
$14.50CALL10,852
$9.50PUT10,147
$11.00PUT9,525
$13.00CALL9,144
$10.50PUT5,129
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-09-25CallsPutsMax pain $11.00
190
$17.00
1561
$16.50
13k
$16.00
16866
$15.50
412k
$15.00
14411k
$14.50
915k
$14.00
1964k
$13.50
4039k
$13.00
2845k
$12.50
22112k
$12.00
1k4k
$11.50
1k4k
$11.00
10k812
$10.50
5k1k
$10.00
3k260
$9.50
10k
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$23.45+77.1%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$12.00-9.4%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$11.00-16.9%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$11.19-15.5%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$9.50-28.2%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -6
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 76%, short interest is 29.53% of float, and 11 analysts average $18.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-6MODERATE · 30d
0 bull / 4 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
-3
1 analyst downgrade in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-1
latest EPS missed by 31%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($2,507,088 across 13 sells) in 120d
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
-1
7d sentiment depressed (33/100)
Signal
0 bull / 4 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -6 over 30d, a moderate reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 19, 2026
Signal
5 of 5 families lean down.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.00 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street11 covering firms
Consensus rating11 ANALYSTS
Hold
62% buy · 31% hold · 8% sell, as a share of the 11 covering firms.
Median price target+36%
$18
$6now $13$30
A $6–$30 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$-1.15
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Morgan Stanley$11↑50/100
JP Morgan$11↓51/100
Morgan Stanley$6↑50/100
Cantor Fitzgerald$12↓47/100
Rosenblatt$15→60/100
Piper Sandler$13↓54/100
Morgan Stanley$6↓50/100
Citizens$24↑49/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
75.8%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.8%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
29.53%
Rising — shares short changed +3.4% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float98% OF SHARES
372.84M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)97th PCTILE
$641.53M/day
At this depth, position size is not a constraint for a retail account.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Khan Salman Hassan · Chief Financial OfficerSell$183,200—17 Sep
Nowaid Zabi · General CounselSell$101,350—18 Sep
Thiel Frederick G · Director, Chief Executive OfficerSell$314,932—17 Sep
Nowaid Zabi · General CounselSell$100,512—21 Aug
Thiel Frederick G · Director, Chief Executive OfficerSell$253,321—17 Aug
Khan Salman Hassan · Chief Financial OfficerSell$147,360—17 Aug
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
+13.75%
MARA rose +13.75% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) officer moves to sell stock grant shares - Stock Titan” (Stock Titan).
News tone · 7-day—
33 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 50 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
14h agoMARA Stock Rose 14% Friday. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley Still Don’t Agree. - tikr.comtikr.comnot scored
22h agoMara Holdings general counsel Zabi sells $101,349 in stock - Investing.comInvesting.comnot scored
23h agoMara Holdings CEO Thiel sells $314,932 of company stock - Investing.comInvesting.comnot scored
FriMARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) officer moves to sell stock grant shares - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
FriWhy Is MARA Stock Surging on Friday? - BenzingaBenzinganot scored
FriWhy is MARA Holdings stock surging today? - Investing.comInvesting.comnot scored
ThuMARA Stock Pops As Wall Street Backs AI Data Center Pivot - StocksToTradeStocksToTradenot scored
ThuMARA Holdings Just Rallied 21% in a Month: Take Profits, or Buy More? - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Evenly split.
1 of 2 disclosures are buys and 1 is a sale. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0511 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 3.41, 100% annual volatility, a -71% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−16.4%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−24.8%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.1×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownIT CAN HALVE
-70.5%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
3.41
Moves about 3.4× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
100%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Hot buying
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure62
Overheat14
State: hot_buying — Accumulation: up-volume dominates and price has reclaimed the 20-day line (2 up days of the last 5).
What votes againstNightly
HighAnalyst moves1 analyst downgrade in 90d90d · -3
LowEarningslatest EPS missed by 31%4 quarters · -1
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($2,507,088 across 13 sells) in 120d120d · -1
LowSentiment7d sentiment depressed (33/100)1–30d · -1
Signal
4 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company typeRouted as: Crypto-equity
Signal
Routed as Crypto-equity.
Failure modes are routed by company type, and the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are the validated ones. This name routes as Crypto-equity, so the 3 checks above are that cohort's, not a generic list.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Avoid score6-month distress
32.4%10.9× its cohort · financials
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this financials segment: 3.0%. This name reads 10.9× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
LowPosition sizeThe sizing model has not covered this name, so no defensible cap is published for it.Not scored
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighCash runwayAbout 1.6 quarters of cash at current burn ($514M cash against $1.3B a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 28.6% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -71%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 100% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 3.41 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
17 logged
17 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on MARATHIS NAME
17
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksCAPITAL MARKETS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 10 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+59.3% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
MSPeer$202.58-0.46%
GSPeer$942.00-1.00%
SCHWPeer$105.25+0.59%
IBKRPeer$90.69+2.61%
HOODPeer$119.82+9.12%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
2 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 6 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 12, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
More missed loan payments and less borrowing; lower rates also thin banks' margins.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later +1.5% · Rose on 71 of 168 report days
Across the last 168 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, MARA moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 1.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
More mortgages get written.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +1.7% · A week later +2.0% · Two weeks later +0.7% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, MARA moved +1.7% on average on the day and was 0.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Businesses borrow more when they are growing.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.4% · A week later +2.1% · Two weeks later +1.5% · Rose on 16 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, MARA moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 1.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
More card swipes and consumer borrowing when spending is strong.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.4% · A week later +2.1% · Two weeks later +1.5% · Rose on 16 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, MARA moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 1.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 5 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Usually helps when consumers feel better than expectedConfident consumers borrow more.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +0.9% · Rose on 19 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, MARA moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 0.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 9 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expectedEmployed people repay loans and borrow more; banks benefit.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.6% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later +2.1% · Rose on 15 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, MARA moved -0.6% on average on the day and was 2.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 12 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expectedEmployed people repay loans and borrow more; banks benefit.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.5% · A week later +2.5% · Two weeks later +3.1% · Rose on 17 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, MARA moved -0.5% on average on the day and was 3.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Unemployment rate is due in 12 days.
Unemployment rateUsually hurts when unemployment rises more than expectedMore missed loan payments and less borrowing; lower rates also thin banks' margins.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.6% · A week later +2.9% · Two weeks later +4.1% · Rose on 16 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Unemployment rate reports since Jul 6, 2023, MARA moved -0.6% on average on the day and was 4.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections10 links · 1 confirmed
Direct connections · 10 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
APLD · Customercustomer+6.60%Rumored · manual
AURADINE · Suppliersuppliernot pricedRumored · manual
RIOT · Competitorcompetitor+8.55%Rumored · manual
BITMAIN · Suppliersuppliernot pricedRumored · manual
COIN · Partnerpartner+11.66%Confirmed · manual
BITMAIN · Customercustomernot pricedRumored · manual
HUT · Competitorcompetitor+8.52%Rumored · manual
CLSK · Competitorcompetitor+8.39%Rumored · manual
BTDR · Competitorcompetitor+15.39%Rumored · manual
ERCOT · Suppliersuppliernot pricedRumored · manual
1 of 10 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.