Morgan Stanley (MS) — $215.33 +0.74%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

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MS fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:03 PM ETVol 3.84M · Avg 5.97M
MSMorgan Stanley$215.33+0.74%Pre-market$215.55+0.10%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

3 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+3net
2 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 6 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
3 of 6 aligned — closing in
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on fileCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 0.8× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$214.25
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$230–232
center $230.98 · basis · high 52w + round · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$10.55
4.9% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~64% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.0× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.64× · 3.84M vs 5.97M avg
52-week range$141.03 – $232.25
Below high since 2015-7.3% · $232.25 high
Risk / reward1 : 1.3
Plan stop$201.29
Max pain
RSI 1451.5 fires under 35 · fires near $193.59
Forensic flags2 review
What-if price
$215.33
$184.27 · -14.4%-14.4%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+4.9% · $225.88+4.9%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
51.5
fires under 35 · fires near $193.59
vs 50-day
$215.08
at the line
Bollinger
$203.62
no lower pierce · fires near $201.16
VWAP 20
$215.39
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$214.25
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$190.00
OI strike below · fires near $190.87
MACD
+0.25
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.64×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
0.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$5.73
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
14 Oct 2026
· in 63 days
Next dividend
2.14% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed