FRVONasdaqGSneutralOPERATING CO.judged on execution & valuation
Fervo Energy Company ·
$23.92
▼-1.93 (-7.47%)
Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Mkt cap$7.05B
P/E · fwd— · -128.5
Div yieldNone
Beta 1y3.02
Volume1.73M0.45× avg
52-wk range -43.9%1743
The five reads
At a glance the decision-relevant reads, first
GLOBAL TAPE
No overseas listings — FRVO trades on its home exchange only.
Track record · free & ungated
We grade our price-band calls in public
Each forward price band is logged the day it's set and scored when it resolves — misses included. 4 bands have resolved so far — not yet enough for a hit-rate that would mean anything, so none is shown. This builds in the open, not behind the paywall.
8
bands logged
4
resolved so far
Building
status
The calibration ledger stays free, always — a track record can't sit behind a paywall.
Price action
Price & quote
Live quote refreshed every 15 minutes against the full daily snapshot.
The readUnder pressurefact
Where the price sits inside today's range and its 52-week range, plus how it's performed over time. This is the raw quote — the same number everywhere, just faster.
◇ Contracting triangle
Drag or arrow-key the chart for daily OHLCV · 61 sessions through Aug 10, 2026 · prev close $25.85 (dashed)
Open●
$25.84
Prev close●
$25.85
Volume●
1.73M
avg 3.83M
Rel. volume◐
0.45×
below normal
Market cap●
$7.05B
Shares out●
286.28M
float 7.85M
Day range
$23.80$26.70
52-week range ◐
$16.89$42.65
-43.9% from high+41.6% above low
The QTick signal
QTick proprietary signal
A transparent point tally — bull evidence minus bear evidence — read over ~30 days. Faster factors time the swing; slower ones (quality, 13F, forensics) weigh in as longer-horizon context. A model-based prior, not advice.
~30-day swing read · graded vs S&Puncalibrated prior · track record buildingstrength is the tally magnitude, not a probability
0
net · balanced
0 bull / 0 bear factors
Factor breakdown 8 factors · signed points sum to net 0●
Analyst moves90d—
Earnings4 quarters—
Insider flow120d—
Estimate revisionsWeeks—
Sentiment1–30d—
Longer-horizon context weighs the read · not a 30-day timing call
Institutional (13F)Latest 13F—
Quality / valueTTM—
Filing forensicsLatest FY—
Risk flagsDaily—
Net tally
0
0 bull − 0 bear
Factors agreeing
0↑ 0↓
of 9 tracked
Read strength
balanced
30d horizon
Strongest factor
—
no scored factor
Model
QTick Engine
FRVO track record
Building
4 of 8 resolved
Forensic flags filing red flags · backtested edge where shown●
No filing red flags in the latest fiscal year.
Territory — competitor / supplier graph ●
AXIA-PPeer-1.7%
BEPPeer-1.6%
AXIAPeer-2.4%
AXIA-PCPeer-2.2%
ENLTPeer-4.5%
0 net
balanced
0 bull / 0 bear factors
Red-Flag X-Ray
Accounting quality · red-flag scan
One integrity score (0–100) from a set of accounting checks that look for red flags. Higher is safer — and we show the checks it passed, not just the ones it failed.
How we test · 7 forensic testsA clear result ships as openly as a flag — and the tests that don't fire are published in full. No survivorship bias.
Share dilution / SBC creepFires when shares outstanding rise materially or stock-based comp outpaces buybacks.
Distress (Altman-Z, negative equity)Fires on balance-sheet fragility. For banks we substitute regulatory capital (CET1).
Margin trajectoryFires on multi-quarter gross / operating margin erosion.
Going-concern languageNLP scan of filings for material-doubt or going-concern wording.
Filing timelinessFires on late / NT (non-timely) filings and restatements.
Insider selling into strengthFires on discretionary insider sells during price strength; 10b5-1 plans down-weighted.
Analyst-downgrade momentumFires on clusters of net downgrades and target cuts.
Odds & pullback risk
Setup & odds
Which way the next move is more likely to go — and how overstretched the price looks right now.
The read—where it sitsuncalibrated prior · not a forecast
How the likely upside compares with the downside, and how stretched the price is — odds, not timing.
Upside vs downside · 12m ◐
Upside/downside split not available
Expected move · 1wk◐±—
Upside target◐$25.81 +7.9% · level, not a call
Invalidation / stop◐$22.91 -4.2% · level, not a call
Reward : risk◐1.9 : 1
BullClose above $26 opens continuation.
BaseChop between stop and target into the next catalyst.
BearA break of $23 invalidates the setup.
Pullback risk · experimental ◐
LowElevatedHigh
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 79% of cases (n=79,314).
1.00×the segment norm — 79% saw a ≥10% pullback within 63dn=79,314 · observational
Resolved up vs down · 63d◐51% up · 48% down same historical group as the pullback read · 79,314 cases · flat outcomes count on neither side — a historical rate, not a call
Conditioned on◐ANY · ANY vol · ANY momentum the past setups matched against this one
1.00× the mid unconditional rate
↳ In detail
How to read the odds
This is a historical rate, and an experimental one: across 25 years, stocks in the same state — same segment, same price phase, same volatility, same momentum — pulled back this often. The record is built from today's list of companies, so names that delisted along the way are missing and each stock's current segment is projected backward; the rates lean toward survivors until that rebuild lands. Compare the multiple against the segment rather than the bare percentage — recent years run higher than the full 25-year record. None of it predicts timing.
The structure under the price ●
Support band●$21.23 – $23.80 -0.5% from spot · level, not a call
pivot low●$23.10 basis
s1●$22.91 basis
pivot low●$22.50 basis
~68%of bands like this held 21 days after a touch — about the same as any comparable support level. Structure, not a prediction.n=40,800 · observational
Trend & technical structure
Trend & technicals
The price chart's vital signs, in plain English. Expand any row for what it actually means for you.
The read—where it sitsmoving-average posture · fact
Moving averages describe the direction; RSI and the bands describe how stretched the move is. Neither predicts the next one.
Average prices (the trend)
Price vs 200-day●—
Momentum, bands & levels
↳ In detail
The simple version
When price sits aboveits averages with momentum rising, the trend is healthy. When RSI is near the extremes or the price looks "stretched," the move is overdone and often takes a breather. Think of these as a weather report — conditions, not instructions.
Pattern outcomes · derived analysis
Do these patterns even work?
Derived · what patterns actually did
Every charting site detects the pattern. We publish what happened next — the forward win-rate and sample size at each horizon, including the famous patterns that historically meant nothing.
The readForward win-rates, with sample sizewhere it sits
How often each chart pattern was actually followed by a gain, and how many past cases that's based on — including famous ones that didn't work.
Each bar is the win-rate — how often the price was higher that many days after the pattern appeared. The line marks 50%, a coin flip: green beats it, red is worse than chance. Every bar is a platform-wide cohort base rateacross every stock that has shown this pattern (cohort record, not this ticker's own history alone).
Pattern10-day21-day63-day
DowntrendBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate46.9%n=1,231,607
forward win-rate47.2%n=577,208
forward win-rate47.4%n=182,081
slope -0.53 over 40 bars
Bull flagBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate42.3%n=71,952
forward win-rate42.7%n=33,806
forward win-rate43.3%n=10,725
sharp rally then shallow pullback — continuation
Snapshot as of 2026-08-11
↳ In detail
Why we show you the losers
Famous reversal signals like a bullish engulfing have historically closed higher less than half the time at short horizons — below a coin flip. We publish the win-rate and the sample size on every cohort, so a 42-case base rate never masquerades as an 8,500-case one. Objective base rates, not forecasts.
Momentum & performance
Momentum / performance
Trailing returns and relative strength versus the benchmark.
The read—where it sitsRS percentile vs market
How the stock has returned, and whether it's beating the market. A strong run shows recent leadership — leadership reverses without warning.
Trailing returns
1-month◐-7.5%
3-month◐—
6-month◐—
Year-to-date◐-34.5%
1-year◐—
12-1 momentum◐—
Relative strength vs S&P 500
—
RS-rank percentile vs market
laggingleading
Relative strength line (β-adj)◐—
↳ In detail
What relative strength tells you
Relative strength compares FRVO's return to the market — high and rising RS is the single most persistent momentum factor. No RS-rank is available for this name yet.
Risk profile
Risk
Volatility and sensitivity, regressed against SPY from adjusted bars — then the landmine check: what could actually go wrong here.
The readHigh drawdown riskwhere it sitsvs the ADV-Q5 mega segment base rate · observational
Beta is how much it moves with the market; volatility and the worst drop show how rough the ride has been. Historical context, not a position-size rule.
36.4%6-month large-drawdown risk vs 9.3% for its segment
High drawdown riskNames like this hit a large drawdown within 6 months at 3.9× the rate of the ADV-Q5 mega segment — observational, never a sell.
Beta · 1-year◐
3.02
more sensitive than market
Beta · 3-year◐
3.02
Realized vol · 30d◐
153.8%
annualized
Max drawdown · 1y●
-59.8%
The drawdown read · 6-month, segment-graded
Where it sits3.9×
LowHigh
vs the ADV-Q5 mega segment base rate · observational
36.4%6-month large-drawdown risk, vs 9.3% for its segment
Max drawdown, trailing year●-0.60 driver
Distance from 52-week high●-0.44 driver
Parkinson range volatility●0.96 driver
Log price (level)●3.17 driver
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this ADV-Q5 mega segment: 9.3%. This name reads 3.9× that base rate.
↳ In detail
Reading risk
A beta of 3.02 means that, historically, a 1% move in the S&P has come with a ~3.02% move here. Realized vol ran 154% and the largest drawdown observed in the trailing year was 60% — both are what happened, not a bound on what can. The drawdown band above is observational — a risk sort against names of the same segment, blind to balance-sheet failures that never showed in the price.
Failure modes
Coverage
Data not available — failure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far (this name routes as growth)
Macro sensitivity
Coverage
Data not available.
Valuation
Valuation
Is the stock cheap or expensive? Each multiple is graded and explained in plain English.
The readCoverage incompletewhere it sitsagainst its own 5-year range where we have it · standard bands otherwise
Price against earnings, sales, book value and cash flow. We mark the measures that don't apply rather than fake them.
What you pay for earnings
P/E (trailing)●Price ÷ last 12 months of profit; graded vs own 5y history when coveredn/an/a
Forward P/E●Price ÷ next year's expected profit-128.5×n.m.
PEG ratio◐Valuation set against expected growth — lower can look cheaper, but one cutoff is not a verdictn/an/a
Earnings yield◔Profit as a % of price, like a bond yield—n/a
Earnings yield − risk-free●Earnings yield minus the government-bond yield at the same daten/an/a
Dividend yield●Annual indicated cash dividend as a % of price0.00%Income
What you pay for the business
Price / Sales●Price ÷ annual revenue; graded vs own 5y history when coveredn/an/a
Price / Book◔Price ÷ net assets on the booksn/an/a
EV / EBITDA◔Whole-company value ÷ operating cash earningsn/an/a
EV / FCF◔Whole-company value ÷ positive free cash flown/an/a
FCF yield◔Free cash flow as a % of market valuen/an/a
P/E vs own 5y●Five-year median not on filen/an/a
P/S vs own 5y●Five-year median not on filen/an/a
EV/EBITDA and P/FCF need positive operating cash earnings to mean anything (and don't apply to banks, where leverage is the product) — so we mark them n/a rather than print a misleading number.
Peers today territory performance, for valuation context
AXIA-PPeer-1.7%
BEPPeer-1.6%
AXIAPeer-2.4%
AXIA-PCPeer-2.2%
ENLTPeer-4.5%
Fundamentals
The business
Data not available.
Inventory ledger
The stockroom
Data not available.
Segments & geography
Where the revenue lives
Data not available.
Credit & safety · derived analysis
Distance from insolvency
Derived · distance from default
Not the debt total — how far this company's asset value could fall before its debts get hard to cover, and how that distance ranks against its peers.
The read—where it sitspercentile vs solvency universe
How far the company sits from real financial distress, plus how it ranks against peers — more than a debt total tells you.
n/a
σ to default
n/amodel-implied probability of default ●
Filing-forensics flags
0/4
SafeGreyDistress
Model-implied, not a credit rating.It estimates how far the company's assets would have to fall before it couldn't cover its debts, using a standard model (Merton). Higher is safer. (risk-free rate n/a, one-year horizon, asset volatility from —)
Distance-to-default band ●
distress · 0cautionsafe8σ+
Debt-service capacity
Interest coverage●n/a operating income / absolute interest expense
Long-term debt / assets●n/a as filed; distinct from Merton D/V
↳ In detail
How to read these two ratios
The credit engine uses the same stored thresholds shown here: coverage at or below 1× cannot cover interest, while 8× or more is its comfortable band; long-term debt at 10% of assets or less is its light band, while 60% or more is its heavy band. Missing XBRL tags stay n/a.
Altman solvency ●
Altman Z-Score●4.2 Safe
↳ In detail
Why a percentile, not a number
The absolute Z-Score is shown whenever its filing inputs exist. The cross-sectional percentile is a separate field and stays n/a until a current universe rank is on file.
Forensic accounting ●
CleanNo validated forensic-accounting flags fired for this snapshot.
Dilution radar
Coverage
Data not available.
Analyst & estimates
The Street
Data not available.
Earnings bias · derived analysis
How this name behaves into the print
Earnings habit
The street's consensus-surprise habit — whether estimates run conservative or aggressive against what the company reports, not management's own guidance — the beat streak graded against names with the same profile, and what the tape does on good news.
The readMixed habitwhere it sitsvalidated base rates · graded out-of-time
Whether the street sandbags this name, how often a beat streak like this persists (with its sample size), and what the tape does with good news.
62%of names with this beat profile beat againn=126,594 · observational
Consensus habit · trailing 8 quarters
Consensus-surprise habit●not management guidanceinsufficient surprise history
insufficient history (n=0 < 4)
62%of names that had this beat profile went on to beat again (cohort record, not this stock alone)n=126,594 · observational
insufficient history for a bucket — pooled base rate
Post-earnings tape●— no measured announcement reactions on file yet
Earnings-day move · typical●— needs ≥8 measured prints
Implied vs realized move●— insufficient options history
↳ In detail
How to read the habit
This is a historical rate: among companies with the same recent beat record, that share beat again. It was checked on later periods than the ones it learned from, and against the plain long-run average. It describes the group, not this specific report.
Ownership & positioning
Ownership
Who holds it, how options lean, and the most recent insider, congressional and 13F transactions.
The read—where it sitspositioning band · not a vote
Who owns it and what insiders and big funds are doing. Steady buying reads positive; heavy selling reads cautious.
Holders
Institutional●37.7%
Insider●22.0%
Institutional flow●—
Fund concentration●—
Activist stake●None on file
Insider & short
Insider 90d net●—
10b5-1 vs discretionary◔scheduledMostly programmatic
FRVO is -5.0% behind the peer average (-2.50%). Divergence from the group is where the stock-specific signal lives.
Supply map how the territory wires together●
customer
Customer momentum
The customer chain
Data not available.
News & social
The story
Data not available.
Risk case · derived analysis
The risk case
The case against
What can break: how hard this name has fallen before, a sensible position cap, whether it behaves like a lottery ticket, how much cash it has left, how it drifts after earnings, whether the dividend holds, and what changed in the filings — plus a crowding read when its three inputs agree.
The readCoverage incompletewhere it sitsan experimental model estimate · the history-based reads below are graded separately
The case against the stock: how hard it has fallen before, how much cash it has left, how it behaves after earnings, whether the dividend holds, what changed in the filings, and how crowded the trade is.
Avoid score · v2.1 isotonic model · experimental
The nightly batch has not scored this name yet — the model needs universe-wide ranking features that are not computed on demand.
Terminal fate · the cohort's ledger
Of 2811 mid names tracked 2016-2026, 0.4% were delisted for cause within 24 months and 8.0% were acquired — historical frequencies for the cohort, not a forecast for this name.
Each row is what happened to every tracked name in this size cohort over that window — delisted for cause, acquired, or still listed — with the band around each rate. These are the cohort's historical frequencies, not probabilities for this name, and the acquisition arm is never an acquisition forecast.
Max defensible position size
Position sizing needs this name's momentum direction, which is not on file.
Lottery profile · top-decile single-day move
Max single-day move · 21d●+30.6% top decile for the mid cohort
Lottery profile: +30.6% single day in the last month. Names like it (mid): 12.6% catastrophe rate, median 12m +1.8%. Based on n=1,178,524 lottery-pattern observations across all size cohorts, 12-month forward horizon.
12.6%catastrophe rate within 12m for names with high trailing max in the mid cohort; per-cohort n is not stored (total cross-cohort panel n=1,178,524)
Median 12m forward●+1.8% median outcome — not mean
Top-decile threshold●14.3% 90th pct of 21d max daily ret in cohort
Cash runway
No fundamentals row on file for this name.
Post-earnings drift
No measured first-day earnings reaction on file, so drift cannot be graded.
Dividend reliability
No dividend on file — trap / covered classification does not apply.
Filing restatements
No material restatement on file in the trailing 2 years.
Calibration scorecard
Auditable track record
Every rating we publish is fingerprinted, tracked, and resolved in public. Here's how we've actually done.
8
calls logged track record builds as calls resolve (4/8)